Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam threatens 'unimaginable instability' in the region, says El Sisi

Egypt's president spoke on the issue while visiting the Suez Canal

A satellite image taken on June 26, 2020 shows a close-up view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Maxar Technologies via Reuters

The construction site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba in the North West of Ethiopia, seen in November 2017.  AP

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, northwest Ethiopia. AFP

An aerial view of water levels at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia, 2020. AFP

The Blue Nile River is seen as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir fills near the Ethiopia-Sudan border, in this broad spectral image taken on November 6, 2020. Reuters

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has been a source of discord for years. AP

The GERD dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia has been under construction since 2011. EPA/MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River is considered by Ethiopia to be integral to its energy supply, but neighbouring countries say it jeopardises their own water resources. AFP

This frame grab from a video obtained from the Ethiopian Public Broadcaster (EBC) on July 20 and July 21, 2020 and released on July 24, 2020 shows an aerial view of water levels at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia. AFP

A view of northwestern Ethiopia that focuses on the status of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Blue Nile River on July 11, 2020. AFP

A handout satellite image shows a closeup view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia June 26, 2020. Maxar Technologies via Reuters

The foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan will return to Washington this week for another round of talks to reach an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam after missing the deadline last month. Reuters

The Blue Nile river flows near the site of the planned Grand Renaissance Dam near Assosa in Ethiopia. AP

The Grand Renaissance Dam hydroelectric project in Ethiopia. Egypt belives Adis Abbaba is being deliberatley slow in negotiations. William Lloyd George / AFP

A combination picture of handout satellite images shows a view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) July 25, 2017 (top left), July 20, 2018 (top right), July 3, 2019 (bottom left), July 9, 2020 (bottom right) in Ethiopia, in these Sentinel-1 satellite imageries obtained by Reuters on July 14, 2020. 

Egypt's President Abdel Fatah El Sisi warned on Tuesday that denying his country just "a drop of water" would trigger "unimaginable instability" in the region.

This was his sternest rebuke to Ethiopia to date over its disputed Nile dam.

Egypt fears that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam – or Gerd – will deeply cut its share of the Nile's water.

With a population of around 100 million, Egypt depends on the Nile for more than 90 per cent of its fresh water needs.

Egypt and fellow downstream nation Sudan have been trying for years to persuade Ethiopia to enter a legally binding agreement on the filling and operation of the dam.

Ethiopia maintains that guidelines, rather than a binding deal, should suffice, and warned that it plans to go ahead with a second and a much larger filling of the dam in the summer – regardless of whether an agreement is reached.

“We don’t talk much, but I need to tell everyone that no one can take a drop of water from Egypt. If anyone wants to try, let him try,” the Egyptian leader told a news conference at the Suez Canal city of Ismailia.

“But we are not threatening anyone and our discourse remains very patient and very wise, but no one can take a drop of water from Egypt water.

"Doing so will create unimaginable instability in the region and no one should assume that he is beyond the reach of our capabilities," Mr El Sisi said.

“I say it again, Egypt’s water cannot be touched. Touching it is a red line and our reaction if it’s touched will impact on the entire region.”

This was a thinly-veiled reference to the reach of Egypt's military.

Since Mr El Sisi took office in 2014, the country has acquired cutting-edge weapons that allow it to operate away from its borders. These include German submarines, ships equipped with assault helicopters and French Rafale fighter jets.

But Mr El Sisi also softened his warning. He said: "Hostile actions are ugly and their large big ramifications endure for years and people never forget them.

“Our battle is the battle of negotiations … Everything we demand is within the realm of laws governing transnational rivers.

“There will be movement in negotiations within the next few weeks and I hope we reach a legally-binding agreement.”

Ethiopia's second filling of the Gerd will involve 13.5 billion cubic metres of water – nearly three times the size of the first one, last July.

That did not have an impact on Egypt because 2020 saw a bumper flood that filled its reservoir behind the Aswan dam.

However, Sudan complained that the filling disrupted operations at water treatment facilities.

Sudan maintains that only real-time data on the operation of the Gerd can shield it from destructive flooding and guarantee that its own hydroelectric dams on the Nile operate normally.

Gerd, which is nearly 80 percent complete, is built on the Blue Nile, 20 kilometres from the Sudanese border.

The Blue Nile, the source of which is in Ethiopia's highlands, thunders down into eastern Sudan and meets with the White Nile in Khartoum.

Merged, they they travel together through northern Sudan and Egypt, all the way to the Mediterranean.

The Blue Nile accounts for more than 80 per cent of the Nile’s water.