As Tunisians celebrate 65 years of independence from France on Saturday, and in the shadow of the 10-year anniversary of their revolution, they are deeply divided about the future of the country. With the economy reeling from the effects of the pandemic and unemployment surging, a rift has emerged between those looking to the vestiges of the past for stability and those pushing for the pace of change to quicken.
The National spoke to Tunisians in the street this past week to ask what they thought the future should look like and who would lead them there.
The only thing people could agree on: the current system is not working.
“We see no clear strategies, or a well-crafted plan to clearly show us our future or the future of our children,” said Hafedh Blaij, a craftsman working in Tunis. “There is not a single politician you can rely on. As soon as you give them your trust, they show you their horns.”
“In Bourguiba’s era, life was better, everything was cheaper, job opportunities were better,” he said.
Habib Bourguiba, who led Tunisia from 1956 to 1987, was viewed on the global stage as a visionary with the will power to push forward reforms that thrust Tunisia into the modern era. He expanded access to education, pushed for modernisation of agriculture and industry and instituted a landmark Code of Personal Status that gave women rights unheard of in the Arab world – among them the abolishment of polygamy, the right to a civil divorce, and state-funded access to birth control and abortion.
“Bourguiba was the greatest leader Tunisia ever had – or ever will have,” said Abdelrahman Chokri, a vendor in the medina of Tunis whose shop is graced with half a dozen photos of the late prime minister and president.
But Bourguiba’s legacy is tarnished by his brutal treatment of opposition from both the left and the right. Both he and his successor, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who took over the presidency in 1987 in a medical coup, carried out a campaign that saw tens of thousands of leftists and Islamists jailed, tortured and killed over the course of three decades.
Ben Ali was toppled in the January 2011 revolution, ushering in an era of newfound political freedoms, but also economic instability and political uncertainty. Since the revolution, GDP growth has dropped from 3.5 per cent in 2010 to just over 1 per cent in 2019. Overall, 16 per cent of Tunisians are unemployed, but that number more than doubles for those under 30, according to the World Bank. The country has had nine prime ministers in 10 years.
Some Tunisians urge patience with the pace of reforms. “No transition is easy,” said Azzouz, a milliner in Tunis who declined to give last name. “It is quite normal to undergo a certain level of distress when you go through a shift from one regime to another.”
But others are leaning into the nostalgia for stability and prosperity at the voting booth.
In 2019, a former Ben Ali era official, Abir Moussi, whose bombastic rhetoric denies that the 2011 revolution took place and brands the ruling moderate Islamist Ennahda party terrorists, was elected to parliament. Since then, her Free Destourian Party (PLD), and their Ben Ali-era policies, have gained traction among voters. Two recent polls suggest the PDL could win a majority of seats in Parliament if elections were held this year, though they are slated for 2024.
“Abir Moussi will get the Islamists out of Tunisia and get unemployment down,” said Bilal, a taxi driver in Tunis, adding, “Ben Ali never should have left.”
While older generations debate the merits of the Bourguiba and Ben Ali years, the younger generation is pushing for the revolution to continue. Dozens of anti-government protests have taken place since mid January.
At one protest that month, Aya, a 21-year-old student, expressed her frustration at the lack of progress. “Nothing has happened in the 10 years since the revolution. In fact things have only grown worse.
"We want jobs, we want dignity, we want to live," she told The National.
“There will be a second revolution, we are sure of that,” said another of her compatriots at the protest.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
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Arabian Gulf League fixtures:
Friday:
- Emirates v Hatta, 5.15pm
- Al Wahda v Al Dhafra, 5.25pm
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Saturday:
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Saudi Cup race day
Schedule in UAE time
5pm: Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors Cup (Turf), 5.35pm: 1351 Cup (T), 6.10pm: Longines Turf Handicap (T), 6.45pm: Obaiya Arabian Classic for Purebred Arabians (Dirt), 7.30pm: Jockey Club Handicap (D), 8.10pm: Samba Saudi Derby (D), 8.50pm: Saudia Sprint (D), 9.40pm: Saudi Cup (D)
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.