At the 10th anniversary of the start of the Iraq war, Iraqi politicians are busy preparing for local elections, and parliament has just passed the annual budget.
Can we take these apparent workings of a normal democracy as indications that the war was a great success?
To evaluate the democratic quality of Iraq's local elections, it is instructive to see how the biggest political parties interact with the electorate.
After periods of civil-war-like conditions in the past decade, a key indicator can be found in the electoral fortunes of those political parties that have a national orientation; those capable of appealing to voters of whatever ethnic or sectarian background.
By that measure, today's Iraqi political landscape is not encouraging. Only one coalition, the secular Iraqiyya, is making a wholehearted effort to win votes in both Sunni and Shiite areas. The remaining parties, Kurds and Shiite Islamists, are competing mainly in areas where members of their support groups live.
In areas where there are Shiite minorities, the Shiites have formed a single electoral list to maximise the sectarian vote; where there are no Shiites, they do not run at all. A clearer possible sign that they are focused only on sectarian support would hardly be possible.
Crucially, this state of affairs in Iraqi political positioning is not something that has been constant since the Iraq war began in 2003. Quite the contrary, we need to go back only to the previous local elections, held in 2009 to find indications of healthier tendencies.
Back then, Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki made an honest attempt to win some Sunni votes in some areas.
Crucially, Mr Al Maliki challenged other Shiites even in the northern governorates where a common Shiite list might have maximised the sectarian vote.
Another interesting indicator of the state of play in Iraqi politics relates to parliamentary developments. Again, there are superficial indicators of a modicum of success: Recently the annual budget was passed with a slim majority, getting 168 votes in the 325-member chamber.
Here one might perhaps talk about a somewhat more progressive political climate. Kurds were boycotting in protest over oil policy, and large parts of the secular and increasingly Sunni-backed Iraqiyya were absent too.
Still, since the Kurds enjoy extensive autonomy, a bit of friction between them and the central government in the national parliament does not in itself have to be seen as some kind of anomaly or danger signal.
That Mr Al Maliki was able to win the support of some Sunnis and secularists indicates that Iraqi political life is not really completely polarised along sectarian lines.
Still, with so few Sunnis and secularists taking part in the vote, Mr Al Maliki once more relied on sectarian support from the Sadrists to get things done, and his efforts to build enduring political bonds outside his Shiite Islamist base remain alarmingly limited.
Make a comparison with July 2008, when there was evidence of a far broader Sunni-Shiite alliance on issues relating to electoral arrangements for the Kurdish-controlled disputed city of Kirkuk.
All this suggests a way to see the legacy of the Iraq war: the country briefly experienced a progressive and democratic form of politics around between 2008 and 2010, but has since relapsed into sectarianism.
This suggests that the US withdrawal from the country in December 2011 was premature: a continued US presence might well have had a positive effect on Iraq's political climate.
Even a token residual US force might have been enough to drive a wedge between Mr Al Maliki and the Sadrists, sufficient to force him to build more solid ties with parts of Iraqiyya and other Sunnis and secularists. But without the US presence, he has relied on the Sadrists, who have turned markedly towards Iran in recent years.
The change during the Obama administration has been the shift towards seeing Iranian influence in Iraq as something "natural" to which the US can acquiesce.
This tendency seems organically related to the Democrats' discourse on Iraq during their years of opposition to George W Bush, when they became wedded to the portrayal of the war as a failure and got attached to narratives that focused on partition, and the acceptance of regional overlordships, as major symptoms of the war's "failure".
It is true that some of the partners the Bush administration chose so illogically from among the Shiite political parties have given Iran a stronger foothold in Iraq than it needed to have.
But it was only during the Obama years that the ties linking all the Shiite parties of Iraq with Iranian sponsors were revived, so that they now seem stronger than ever.
The Iraq war really went bad in 2009. This point is worth emphasising since so much of the current anniversary commentary is provided by people who opted to close their eyes shortly after the onset of the war, and didn't bother to open them again until now.
The chaotic nature of the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions suggests that Arab politicians are perfectly capable of messing things up, even when the big powers are in the back seat.
But in Iraq, for better or worse, the US intervened. Once that presence was in place, it was terminated badly and irresponsibly under Mr Obama, with grave consequences for Iraq and the wider region.
Reidar Visser is the editor of the Iraq website historiae.org and a research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
ICC Intercontinental Cup
UAE squad Rohan Mustafa (captain), Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Saqlain Haider, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Naveed, Imran Haider, Qadeer Ahmed, Mohammed Boota, Amir Hayat, Ashfaq Ahmed
Fixtures Nov 29-Dec 2
UAE v Afghanistan, Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Hong Kong v Papua New Guinea, Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Ireland v Scotland, Dubai International Stadium
Namibia v Netherlands, ICC Academy, Dubai
Vidaamuyarchi
Director: Magizh Thirumeni
Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra
Rating: 4/5
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
The Prison Letters of Nelson Mandela
Edited by Sahm Venter
Published by Liveright
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Zidane's managerial achievements
La Liga: 2016/17
Spanish Super Cup: 2017
Uefa Champions League: 2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18
Uefa Super Cup: 2016, 2017
Fifa Club World Cup: 2016, 2017
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
SERIE A FIXTURES
Saturday (UAE kick-off times)
Atalanta v Juventus (6pm)
AC Milan v Napoli (9pm)
Torino v Inter Milan (11.45pm)
Sunday
Bologna v Parma (3.30pm)
Sassuolo v Lazio (6pm)
Roma v Brescia (6pm)
Verona v Fiorentina (6pm)
Sampdoria v Udinese (9pm)
Lecce v Cagliari (11.45pm)
Monday
SPAL v Genoa (11.45pm)
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
Signs%20of%20%20%20%20%20%20%20heat%20stroke
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20loss%20of%20sodium%20chloride%20in%20our%20sweat%20can%20lead%20to%20confusion%20and%20an%20altered%20mental%20status%20and%20slurred%20speech%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EBody%20temperature%20above%2039%C2%B0C%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHot%2C%20dry%20and%20red%20or%20damp%20skin%20can%20indicate%20heatstroke%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EA%20faster%20pulse%20than%20usual%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDizziness%2C%20nausea%20and%20headaches%20are%20also%20signs%20of%20overheating%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIn%20extreme%20cases%2C%20victims%20can%20lose%20consciousness%20and%20require%20immediate%20medical%20attention%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
RACECARD
%3Cp%3E5pm%3A%20Al%20Shamkha%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E5.30pm%3A%20Khalifa%20City%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E6pm%3A%20Masdar%20City%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E6.30pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E7pm%3A%20Emirates%20Championship%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20Dh1%2C000%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E7.30pm%3A%20Shakbout%20City%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%202%2C400m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5