Samsung Unpacked preview: Price still biggest hurdle for foldable devices

The company will also attempt to regain its lead in the market, which it lost for the first time in Q1, analysts say

Samsung Electronics dominated the foldable smartphone market – until it was unseated by Huawei in the first quarter of 2024. EPA

Samsung will unveil its new generation of foldable devices this week – but high prices are the main barrier keeping them out of users' hands.

The world's biggest mobile phone manufacturer will also have to attempt to regain its lead in the foldables market, which it lost for the first time in the first quarter of this year.

Seoul-based Samsung will unveil what is expected to be the Galaxy Z Fold6 and Flip6 at its second Unpacked event for 2024 in Paris on Wednesday. The company has not officially confirmed the names of the devices.

Improvements to both smartphones, according to multiple leaks and reports, include a flat-edged design similar to the recent Galaxy S24 series, improved cameras and a more powerful Galaxy AI platform, which it first incorporated into the S24 devices. A built-in S-Pen on the Fold6 is not expected.

However, despite the token and necessary upgrades to foldables, their price point remains the biggest sticking point for consumers who are considering making the switch to the still-niche form factor, hindering the sector's market growth, the analysts said.

Foldables remain more expensive compared to regular smartphones, mainly due to their more complex build. The Galaxy Fold, in particular, has started at $1,799 for the past two years, with Huawei’s device even more expensive.

That is compared to $1,299 for Samsung’s last top-tier device, the Galaxy S24 Ultra, and $1,199 for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. The Flip, meanwhile, presents a more affordable option at $999, at par with entry-level devices from Samsung and Apple’s latest series.

“Despite foldable hardware continually developing … the market has not grown as expected,” Aaron West, a senior analyst for smartphones at industry data tracker Omdia, told The National.

“High costs to consumers remain a key obstacle to more foldable market penetration. Any and all new foldable phone releases need to address both this cost and the lack of use cases to make foldable phones more enticing to consumers.”

In addition, consumers are taking note of improvements, including dust and water resistance, more sophisticated hinges, screen durability, battery life, camera technology, software support and the devices becoming lighter and thinner.

“Consistent improvements … indicate that foldables are becoming a serious category,” Akash Balachandran, research manager for mobile devices at the International Data Corporation, told The National.

“Foldable smartphones typically fall into the premium and ultra-premium categories, which limit reach and appeal. However, as ASPs [average selling prices] fall, we can expect a significant growth in sales, especially of the flip form factor, where prices are already dropping.”

Samsung loses its 'foldable' crown

Foldable smartphones remain a minor category in the overall smartphone market, but manufacturers have continuously pushed to bring more into the market as consumer preferences shift.

Their popularity has been mainly attributed to Samsung, which pushed the category into the mainstream, starting with the original Galaxy Z Fold in 2019. The company followed that up with the Galaxy Z Flip the following year, a smaller but also more affordable phone in a bid to attract more users.

Since then, Samsung has dominated the foldable category, with a market share that peaked at more than 80 per cent about two years ago.

However, a major shift happened in the first quarter of 2024: Huawei now has the biggest market share in foldables, cornering about 35 per cent of the market, unseating Samsung which had 23 per cent, markedly down from 58 per cent a year ago, a May report from Counterpoint Research shows.

Up-and-down forecasts

While industry reports on the future of the foldable smartphone sector agree that growth will continue, forecasted numbers vary.

Overall, shipments in the global foldable smartphone market are expected to hit 25 million units in 2024, up about 38 per cent from 18.1 million last year, and would further rise to 45.7 million by 2028, at a compound annual growth rate of 20.3 per cent, IDC data shows.

Samsung also has to contend with other notable brands that have their own foldables, including Oppo, Motorola, Google and Honor, the former Huawei sub-brand that placed third in the three months through March, according to Hong Kong-based Counterpoint's data.

Huawei's growth mainly stemmed from its home turf of China, being the “go-to” choice for consumers in the world's second-largest economy, Mr West said – despite the lack of Google services.

“Outside of China, Samsung’s biggest competitor is Honor for its ultra-thin book-style foldable phones and Motorola for its more affordable Razr series for flip-style foldable phones,” he said.

Meanwhile, a separate report from TrendForce in June forecasts that Samsung's market share will account for more than half of the market and retain the lead in 2024, with Huawei second with about 31 per cent share.

They would make up the upper tier of this year's race, where shipments are expected to hit 17.8 million units, the Taipei-based research firm said.

That would account for only 1.5 per cent of the overall smartphone market – but this is expected to grow to about 5 per cent by 2028, it added.

“It's only a matter of time before consumers no longer see a major compromise in choosing a foldable – but prices need to come down,” Mr Balachandran said.