Consequences of Israel's attack on Syria will be lasting



Just when it seemed as though Israel was judiciously keeping out of the Arab uprisings, the country stepped in. Having kept mostly silent for almost two years, apart from some generic "Assad must step down" type statements, Israel began to speak out a few months ago, about chemical and other weapons from Syria getting into the wrong hands, Hizbollah. Then, with an apparent green light from the US, the nation launched air strikes, apparently at a weapons research centre and perhaps also a convoy of anti-aircraft batteries said to be en route to Hizbollah.

Some analysts, such as Joshua Landis, director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Oklahoma University, have described this action in Syria as "win-win". The idea is that both the US and Israel achieved a shared goal of striking at Syria's chemical weapons store, while Syrian rebels would be happy at the thought that high-grade munitions did not reach Hizbollah, which might use such supplies against the rebels in the future.

That's a tidy picture, but it glosses over the complications and consequences of Israel's attack.

One aspect was highlighted by Israel's defence minister, Ehud Barak, who gave the clearest indication of Israel's responsibility for the raids at a meeting in Munich last Sunday. The aerial raid, which Syria had reported as targeting a "research centre" near Damascus, Mr Barak said, offered "proof that when we say something we mean it". That's a reference to the "red lines" Israel has issued over previous weeks, backed up by the US, regarding any transfer of Syria's chemical weapons arsenal to Hizbollah.

Shlomo Brom of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, elaborates: "If Israel hadn't attacked, it would lose credibility." If Israel were seen to let Syria cross those red lines, it would, Dr Brom says, "make any threats we put on the table meaningless". This is the logic of Israel's pre-emptive, deterrence effect in action.

But how is that heard in the region? "It's like winning the battle and losing the war," says Alon Liel, former director general of Israel's Foreign Ministry and former ambassador to South Africa. It may have been a successful attack, and there may have been watertight security reasoning behind it, he says. "But we lose points with these attacks in the long run because we are seen as a trigger-happy country that has no limits … The overall picture is that the region hates us more and more, and the consensus is that Israel is a negative force and not really part of the region."

That's evident in the immediate reaction to those strikes. Turkey, already estranged from its former ally Israel, accused the country of waging "state terrorism" in the attack, violating international law. Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: "Those who have been treating Israel like a spoilt child should expect anything from them at any time."

If Israel caused a trial separation with Turkey when it launched its devastating assault on Gaza in late 2008, then it probably just signed the divorce papers with this air strike in Syria. Clearly Israel calculated that no regional player would be in a position to retaliate right now. And that may be accurate. But it doesn't mean that the outrage and resentment won't be filed away for future use.

Could Israel behave any differently? Mr Liel thinks that the country has other options. "First of all we could offer help and shelter to the refugees from Syria," he says. "This terrible massacre is taking place so near to us, and yet we do nothing." Mr Liel thinks that the rebels are beyond the stage where they would reject such humanitarian assistance from Israel. But even if such an offer were refused, the act of merely suggesting it would be significant, changing the dynamic of Israel's place in the region.

In fact, Israeli non-governmental organisations are already providing humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees, but in a low-key and distinctly unofficial capacity.

But that's not enough. "The state of Israel should be ready to open its border with Syria to refugees, on humanitarian grounds, and also to offer our assistance to Jordan and Turkey if they need help with refugees," says Mr Liel. Both those countries have already taken in some of the 787,000 registered Syrian refugees created by the bloody turmoil in Syria, and the estimated 5,000 the UN says are now leaving the country each day.

Increasing aid, however, is not the prevalent view within Israel's government and security establishment, where the signals are of intentions to strike Syrian targets again, if necessary. Israel is clearly planning for a post-Assad Syria: there has been talk of creating a 16 kilometre "buffer zone" inside Syria, to keep radical groups at bay. Moreover, the country has moved three Iron Dome missile interceptors to the Syrian border, where it is erecting a new security fence similar to the one along the Sinai border with Egypt.

Israel is working to keep hostile groups out - but in so doing, it is also further fencing itself in.

Rachel Shabi is a journalist and the author of Not the Enemy - Israel's Jews from Arab Lands

On Twitter: @rachshabi

Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

The Laughing Apple

Yusuf/Cat Stevens

(Verve Decca Crossover)

UAE%20Warriors%2033%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAli%20Al%20Qaisi%20by%20Jesse%20Arnett%20by%20submission%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EJosh%20Togo%20bt%20Tahir%20Abdullaev%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIago%20Ribeiro%20bt%20Juan%20Puerta%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYerkin%20Darmen%20bt%20Tyler%20Ray%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Bousheiri%20bt%20John%20Adajar%20by%20submission%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20232lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAsylzhan%20Bakhytzhanuly%20bt%20Hasan%20Yousefi%20by%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAlin%20Chirila%20bt%20Silas%20Robson%20by%20KO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EArvin%20Chan%20bt%20Abdi%20Farah%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOle-Jorgen%20Johnsen%20bt%20Nart%20Abida%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOtar%20Tanzilov%20bt%20Eduardo%20Dinis%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrawweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EColine%20Biron%20bt%20Aysun%20Erge%20via%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESoslan%20Margiev%20bt%20Mathieu%20Rakotondrazanany%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBakhromjon%20Ruziev%20bt%20Younes%20Chemali%20by%20majority%20decision%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ARABIAN GULF LEAGUE FIXTURES

Thursday, September 21
Al Dahfra v Sharjah (kick-off 5.35pm)
Al Wasl v Emirates (8.30pm)

Friday, September 22
Dibba v Al Jazira (5.25pm)
Al Nasr v Al Wahda (8.30pm)

Saturday, September 23
Hatta v Al Ain (5.25pm)
Ajman v Shabab Al Ahli (8.30pm)

MATCH INFO

Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD

* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10

FIXTURES

All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT)

Tuesday
Mairobr v Liverpool
Spartak Moscow v Sevilla
Feyenoord v Shakhtar Donetsk
Manchester City v Napoli
Monaco v Besiktas
RB Leipzig v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid v Tottenham Hotspur

Wednesday
Benfica v Manchester United
CSKA Moscow v Basel
Bayern Munich v Celtic
Anderlecht v Paris Saint-Germain
Qarabag v Atletico Madrid
Chelsea v Roma
Barcelona v Olympiakos
Juventus v Sporting Lisbon

SQUADS

India
Virat Kohli (captain), Rohit Sharma (vice-captain), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni (wicketkeeper), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Shardul Thakur

New Zealand
Kane Williamson (captain), Martin Guptill, Colin Munro, Ross Taylor, Tom Latham (wicketkeeper), Henry Nicholls, Ish Sodhi, George Worker, Glenn Phillips, Matt Henry, Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Adam Milne, Trent Boult

WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?

1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull

2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight

3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge

4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own

5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed

Fifa Club World Cup:

When: December 6-16
Where: Games to take place at Zayed Sports City in Abu Dhabi and Hazza bin Zayed Stadium in Al Ain
Defending champions: Real Madrid

Day 4, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance

Moment of the day Not much was expected – on Sunday or ever – of Hasan Ali as a batsman. And yet he lit up the late overs of the Pakistan innings with a happy cameo of 29 from 25 balls. The highlight was when he launched a six right on top of the netting above the Pakistan players’ viewing area. He was out next ball.

Stat of the day – 1,358 There were 1,358 days between Haris Sohail’s previous first-class match and his Test debut for Pakistan. The lack of practice in the multi-day format did not show, though, as the left-hander made an assured half-century to guide his side through a potentially damaging collapse.

The verdict As is the fashion of Test matches in this country, the draw feels like a dead-cert, before a clatter of wickets on the fourth afternoon puts either side on red alert. With Yasir Shah finding prodigious turn now, Pakistan will be confident of bowling Sri Lanka out. Whether they have enough time to do so and chase the runs required remains to be seen.