United front to keep crude in check



April Yee

RIYADH // Oil importers and exporters have agreed to work together to limit price volatility even as regional unrest has propelled crude prices to a 30-month high.

Representatives from 87 nations yesterday signed a charter for the International Energy Forum (IEF), ushering in an era of increased co-operation between importers and exporters who have not always seen eye-to-eye in the past.

"What I think has been very absent in this market historically has been that sort of structure," said Charles Hendry, the UK energy minister. "So one's tended to have the producer countries separate from the consumer countries, and now it must be for the good of us globally that we are in the same room talking together about those issues."

The charter brings more influence to the IEF, a group founded in 1991 that has traditionally drawn its power from Opec and the International Energy Agency, which represents the interests of 28 oil-importing countries.

Even as Brent crude prices hovered above US$106, representatives from consumer countries in Riyadh yesterday held back from criticising Opec or calling on it to increase supply.

"Opec has been accepted way long ago, I think we went beyond that now," said Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, the assistant to the Saudi minister for petroleum. "They have passed these psychological barriers and they are beyond the notion of confrontation."

As prices have climbed amid Middle East unrest, oil ministers focused on the need to control price volatility.

"We consider the problem with prices - price volatility - as the key problem of the current markets, and we think that due to the forum we could find some solutions," said Yuri Sentyurin, the Russian deputy energy minister.

Part of the uncertainty about oil prices arises from a lack of agreement between energy importers and exporters about how much crude is on the market.

"The focus is really getting the data right," said Mohammed al Hamli, the UAE Minister of Energy. "Everybody says, Opec produces that data, IEA produces that data, but we want countries to be confident when they are actually involved."

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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