As Greece’s debt crisis drags on, we asked analysts and traders for their views on the best investment opportunities at present.
The common theme that emerged is that with the uncertainty surrounding Greece, investors would do well to buy on dips.
Whatever the outcome, investors who are not averse to taking risks will still be wading into stocks, bonds, equities, currencies and precious metals such as gold.
In or out?
The questions on everyone’s mind are: What happens to Greece? Will it remain in the euro or leave?
Analysts remained divided.
“The risk of a Greek exit from the euro has increased dramatically following the misguided No vote at the weekend,” said Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Denmark’s Saxo Bank.
Vineeta Mahnot, an equity research analyst at Hem Securities in Jaipur, India, thought otherwise. “Although the Greeks have voted no in the referendum, it won’t be easy for them to stay away from the euro. If they opt for an exit, then the situation will worsen for them as inflation would spike up along with economic instability,” she said.
Christian Gattiker-Ericsson, the chief strategist and head of research at the private bank Julius Baer, voiced a similar opinion. “Yes, we assume there is a vital interest on the part of Greece to remain in the euro. However, we might see even further escalation after the no vote before a deal is struck.”
Others such as Pradeep Unni, the head of trading and research at Richcomm Global Services in Dubai, were unsure.
“It’s a tough call to make at this point of time. Going back to an independent currency will be a mammoth challenge to deal with, especially when the nation reels under massive unemployment and other financial issues,” he said.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch said a lot of mutual pride-swallowing was needed to avoid Greece’s exit from the euro zone.
“To public opinion in core Europe, already tempted by throwing Greece out of the monetary union, the ‘big no’ may be seen as the last straw,” said Gilles Moec, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s head of developed European economics.
“Offering concessions now would be seen as weakness, handing Alexis Tsipras a victory that may resonate throughout the periphery. Finding a solution that keeps Greece in the monetary union would require the acceptance by the Europeans that more fiscal efforts have to be matched – not ‘preceded’ – by explicit debt relief.
“For a deal to work, Germany has to acknowledge that it cannot dither on debt relief, and Tsipras must give up his fiery rhetoric, and probably rejig his coalition to let ‘pro-programme’ parties in. That’s a lot to ask in a short time span.”
Following the referendum vote and the resignation of Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, the British bookmaker Ladbrokes lengthened the odds on Greece leaving the euro zone this year to 7/4 and shortened the odds of it staying in the currency bloc to 2/5.
Those odds imply a roughly 60 per cent chance that Greece will stay in the euro this year and a 40 per cent chance of Grexit.
Stocks
Most analysts expect European equity markets to remain volatile until a solution to Greece’s debt is found.
“European stocks are prisoners of the Greek situation until further notice,” said Mr Gattiker-Ericsson.
But despite this, he said equities offered the best opportunity right now, especially companies in the consumer, healthcare and technology sectors.
Mr Hansen agreed. “Investment sentiment has been dented by the ongoing crisis between Greece and its creditors. Until we see a solution, equity markets will remain volatile, not least considering the time of year when investment appetite is already reduced due to the summer holiday season,” he said.
However, the decline of European stocks has been limited since the Greeks voted “No” in Sunday’s referendum, rejecting the austerity measures demanded of them in return for bailout funds.
“European stocks, especially banking stocks, remain under pressure from the uncertainty and current lack of clear solutions,” said Mr Hansen.
The Euro STOXX 50 index of euro-zone blue-chip shares has fallen 1.2 per cent since Monday and was trading at 3,322.36 yesterday afternoon.
A Reuters survey conducted late last month found that the index was expected to end the year at 3,794 points.
Gold
Mr Hansen said that gold had struggled to attract buyers throughout the latest escalation in the Greek crisis and that had sharply reduced investors’ perception of gold as a safe haven.
Market speculators such as hedge funds are the least bullish they have been since October 2006, while total holdings in exchange-traded products backed by physical gold is close to the lowest level since 2009.
“Near term, the risk is pointing towards lower levels but we view the $1,080 to $1,130 area as a buying opportunity and maintain our end of year call at $1,275,” said Mr Hansen.
Gold’s upside has been hurt by the prospect of higher US interest rates this year, which would boost demand for dollars and increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Gold was trading at US$1,153.88 an ounce yesterday. It is down just over 1 per cent for the year.
Mr Gattiker-Ericsson supported the bearish view. “Whenever a currency break-up is at stake, gold should react when measured in this currency. But not even when measured against the euro has gold been up in the past few weeks,” he said.
But others differed on this.
“Now that the Greece crisis has acutely questioned the euro’s stability, gold is well poised to reoccupy its position as an alternate currency to the US dollar,” said Anand James, the co-head of technical research at Geojit BNP Paribas in Kochi, India.
“Despite India’s gold, bonds may divert some of the investment-oriented purchases, but it is likely that as the economy improves, jewellery consumption is likely to increase.
“Thus, on both these grounds, gold is poised to see gains, and looks a good bet at this point. However, the sustainability of its price gains may closely depend on the pace of Fed rate hikes.”
Mr Unni said he thought gold was an ideal investment amid the current uncertainty.
“Predominantly gold gains on dollar weakness or amid financial instability and the current situation will support the metal well,” he said.
“Many investors and hedge funds are reported to be flocking into gold on fears that deteriorating public finances and ballooning national debt of major economies can undervalue the current monetary set-up. Its impact on the peripheral euro zone, which is carrying similar debt problems, will be sufficient to take the metal higher.”
Bonds
With Greece given time until Sunday to come up with a proposal to keep it in the euro zone and the relentless hammering of Chinese stocks over the past four weeks, during which they have lost more than 30 per cent of their value, investors are showing an appetite for bonds.
Yields on the 10-year Chinese treasury bond fell 10 basis points (bps) yesterday at the start of trading as investors sought the safety of government debt.
Other bonds perceived as having strong government backing have also performed well in recent days.
Yields on five-year policy bank bonds and debts (carrying a five-year tenor) issued by local government financing vehicles are both down about 20 bps since the end of last month.
Although German 10-year bund yields, which set the standard for euro-zone borrowing costs, dropped a basis point to 0.63 per cent, 10-year bond yields fell between two and three basis points to 2.26 per cent in Spain and Italy and 3.14 per cent in Portugal.
“In this environment we are seeing risk-off hitting all sectors with the exception of core bonds from countries such as the US, Germany and Switzerland. Core bonds therefore offer the best potential as an investment,” said Mr Hansen.
Mr Gattiker-Ericsson agreed, saying that “bonds in Europe, however, get increasingly interesting after the recent moves there”.
Currencies
Analysts expect some limited euro weakness, but this is unlikely to sustain for long.
“In the coming months the market focus is likely to shift to the US elections and the possible uncertainty of the next US leadership and policies. The euro should be trading in the range of 1.09 to 1.12 [against the dollar] for the rest of the year,” said Mr Unni. Julius Baer projects 1.08 on a three-month basis and 1.15 on a 12-month basis.
The euro was trading at 1.1028 against the dollar yesterday and is down 6.3 per cent so far this year.
Should investors want to avoid risking potential losses, Mr Hansen suggested keeping investment positions light until either a solution to the debt crisis in Greece is found or “we get closer to September when investment decisions tend to pick up again”.
* with reporting from Reuters
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Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
The%20specs
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Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
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AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
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Price: base / as tested: Dh382,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 428hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 3,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
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Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
What is a black hole?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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You may remember …
Robbie Keane (Atletico de Kolkata) The Irish striker is, along with his former Spurs teammate Dimitar Berbatov, the headline figure in this season’s ISL, having joined defending champions ATK. His grand entrance after arrival from Major League Soccer in the US will be delayed by three games, though, due to a knee injury.
Dimitar Berbatov (Kerala Blasters) Word has it that Rene Meulensteen, the Kerala manager, plans to deploy his Bulgarian star in central midfield. The idea of Berbatov as an all-action, box-to-box midfielder, might jar with Spurs and Manchester United supporters, who more likely recall an always-languid, often-lazy striker.
Wes Brown (Kerala Blasters) Revived his playing career last season to help out at Blackburn Rovers, where he was also a coach. Since then, the 23-cap England centre back, who is now 38, has been reunited with the former Manchester United assistant coach Meulensteen, after signing for Kerala.
Andre Bikey (Jamshedpur) The Cameroonian defender is onto the 17th club of a career has taken him to Spain, Portugal, Russia, the UK, Greece, and now India. He is still only 32, so there is plenty of time to add to that tally, too. Scored goals against Liverpool and Chelsea during his time with Reading in England.
Emiliano Alfaro (Pune City) The Uruguayan striker has played for Liverpool – the Montevideo one, rather than the better-known side in England – and Lazio in Italy. He was prolific for a season at Al Wasl in the Arabian Gulf League in 2012/13. He returned for one season with Fujairah, whom he left to join Pune.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
How to improve Arabic reading in early years
One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient
The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers
Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades
Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic
First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations
Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades
Improve the appearance of textbooks
Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings
Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught
Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
UAE rugby season
FIXTURES
West Asia Premiership
Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Knights Eagles
Dubai Tigers v Bahrain
Jebel Ali Dragons v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Division 1
Dubai Sharks v Dubai Hurricanes II
Al Ain Amblers v Dubai Knights Eagles II
Dubai Tigers II v Abu Dhabi Saracens
Jebel Ali Dragons II v Abu Dhabi Harlequins II
Sharjah Wanderers v Dubai Exiles II
LAST SEASON
West Asia Premiership
Winners – Bahrain
Runners-up – Dubai Exiles
UAE Premiership
Winners – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Runners-up – Jebel Ali Dragons
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners – Dubai Hurricanes
Runners-up – Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Conference
Winners – Dubai Tigers
Runners-up – Al Ain Amblers