Shoppers use their smartphones in a Bangkok mall. Thai consumer confidence is at its highest since 2006. Nicolas Asfouri / AFP
Shoppers use their smartphones in a Bangkok mall. Thai consumer confidence is at its highest since 2006. Nicolas Asfouri / AFP
Shoppers use their smartphones in a Bangkok mall. Thai consumer confidence is at its highest since 2006. Nicolas Asfouri / AFP
Shoppers use their smartphones in a Bangkok mall. Thai consumer confidence is at its highest since 2006. Nicolas Asfouri / AFP

Thailand's economy is on fire, but is it too hot to handle?


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As well as dousing each other liberally with water during the recent Songkran festival to mark the country's traditional New Year's Day holiday, Thais will have spent freely on parties and celebrations, on making merit, on travel and on consumer and luxury goods.

Young middle-class shoppers fill the malls in downtown Bangkok, while on the streets outside, the government is building infrastructure to beat the city's traffic problem, made worse by a rash of new cars on the roads as people take advantage of a tax rebate. Other measures that are giving a boost to domestic consumption include income tax cuts and a rise in the minimum wage.

Demand from India and China is boosting the export market, while the property sector and the commodities market is healthy. Its outperforming stock market is wooing investors from all over the world.

The World Bank forecasts the Thai economy will grow 5.3 per cent this year, up from its 5 per cent prediction in December, while next year GDP growth is expected at 5 per cent, compared to an earlier forecast of 4.5 per cent, the lender said in a report this month.

The baht has risen around 4 per cent against the dollar this year and is at levels not seen since the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

As political problems ease, Thailand is emerging as the darling of global investors right now.

"Thailand is on fire in the short term," said Paul Krake of View from the Peak. "There is excess capacity there but you don't have real bad loan problems. Personal debt is growing but it's not really a problem."

The prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's cabinet last month approved a plan to borrow 2 trillion baht (Dh250 billion) for long-term infrastructure projects after the floods which devastated the country in 2011.

Luxmon Attapich, the senior country economist for Thailand at the Asian Development Bank, said that of the government's infrastructure budget, between 30bn and 40bn baht would be disbursed by the government next year.

Water management spending is a big part of the efforts to ensure there is adequate infrastructure in place in case of future flooding.

Some 80 billion baht would be spent next year on the water-management project, following the 35bn-40bn baht invested in the project this year, Ms Luxmon said.

She listed the key challenges facing the country as off-budget borrowing by the government, high public debt, how to increase revenue collection, and governance, but she said there were no critical signs of a bubble developing in the Thai economy.

The Thai stock exchange has risen 48 per cent in the past 14 months, but it has shown signs of slowing. And while the property price index is on the rise, it is not on a sharp upwards curve, she said, while calling for vigilance.

This month, the Economic and Business Forecast Centre of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) unveiled a decidedly upbeat outlook for the Thai economy.

A UTCC poll showed that Thai consumer confidence last month hit its highest point since the army coup in 2006, and it expects the economy to grow by not less than 5 per cent this year.

"The continued rise in consumer confidence will ensure the country's strong economic expansion this year because consumption will be a major factor driving economic growth," Thanavath Phonvichai, the director of the UTCC's Economic and Forecasting Centre, said in an interview.

The Consumer Confidence Index was at 84.8 points, up from 84 in the previous month, and it has risen continuously for six consecutive months.

"Domestic consumption should grow by 4-5 per cent this year, while tourism expansion will also help to spur the domestic economy throughout the year."

As well as the borrowing bill to finance infrastructure projects, consumer confidence was boosted by a recent spike in Thailand's SET Index, the stronger baht and decreasing domestic oil prices.

Low interest rates and easy monetary policies in the United States, the European Union and Japan have prompted a massive outflow of capital into emerging markets, and foreigners are rushing to buy into Thai funds.

The emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius has more than a quarter of his US$18bn Templeton Asian Growth fund, the biggest in the region, invested in Thailand.

The influx of capital has boosted property and stock prices, prompting fears of an asset bubble that could burst once the funds are withdrawn.

Commenting on risks to the broader South-east Asian region, Bert Hofman, the World Bank's chief regional economist, said: "Continued demand-boosting measures may now be counterproductive as it could add to inflationary pressure … a strong rebound in capital inflows to the region induced by protracted rounds of quantitative easing in the US, EU and Japan, may amplify credit and asset price risks."

Critics say the stimulus measures have stoked spending and contributed to rising household debt. The Bank of Thailand said it will monitor "persistently high" credit growth. About 1.25 million Thais have taken up the car-buying incentive the government introduced to boost domestic consumption after the 2011 floods, helping to drive local car sales to a record last year.

Average Thai household debt rose from 82,485 baht per household in 2002 to 134,900 baht in 2011, according to the National Statistics Office.

"Is the baht too strong? Yes. Are the banks too expensive? Yes. But these are not really a problem. As much as we macro bears like to say these are a problem, these are not. Thailand is a bit of a darling. On the whole it's in great shape," said Mr Krake.

The World Bank believes the main challenge next year for Thailand's growth continues to be the high uncertainty in the global economic prospects, particularly related to the euro-zone crisis.

Asked about how potential political issues could become a problem, Mr Krake said: "Until a problem becomes a crisis, they just stay problems. Economic factors take over."

As the water pistols spray and talc-infused water arcs through the air, the forecasts are for spending during Songkran to increase 10.42 per cent, highlighting the real economic benefits of the feel-good factor.

TOUR RESULTS AND FIXTURES

 

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Profile of Tarabut Gateway

Founder: Abdulla Almoayed

Based: UAE

Founded: 2017

Number of employees: 35

Sector: FinTech

Raised: $13 million

Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.

Milestones on the road to union

1970

October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar. 

December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.

1971

March 1:  Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.

July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.

July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.

August 6:  The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.

August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.

September 3: Qatar becomes independent.

November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.

November 29:  At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.

November 30: Despite  a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa. 

November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties

December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.

December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.

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Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000

Engine 3.5L V6

Transmission 10-speed automatic

Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm

Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm

Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km

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Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.

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