Rising prices ahead of Ramadan feed inflation

Ramadan is expected to push up food prices, increasing inflationary pressures across the GCC in the coming months. The increases in consumer prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE have touched annual highs in recent months. "Ramadan is a month when food demand goes up, exacerbating the problem," said Jarmo Kotilaine, the chief economist at NCB Capital.

Despite government efforts to control prices, the cost of food can increase during Ramadan as demand surges for staples such as rice, bread and sugar. In the UAE, the Ministry of Economy is expected to start a campaign ahead of Ramadan next month to try to control the prices of commodities. Qatar last week announced plans to cap the prices of about 160 basic food and non-food items from July 25. Increases in the cost of basic food items have already contributed to a return of inflationary pressures this year.

The prices of sugar and rice increased by between 15 per cent and 20 per cent in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. Saudi inflation accelerated to a 13-month peak last month, powered by food and housing costs. The kingdom's inflation rate increased to 5.5 per cent last month from 5.4 per cent in May, the central department of statistics said yesterday. In Oman, inflation climbed to a one-year high of 3.2 per cent in May from 3.1 per cent in April, the ministry of economy said last week. The UAE's annual inflation rate accelerated slightly in May to 0.9 per cent. The increase was driven by a 5 per cent annualised rise in food costs.

But economists are ruling out a return of the record inflation rates seen in the GCC before the financial crisis. Economists expect the strength of the US dollar against the euro will act as a counterbalance to rising global food prices. With five of the six GCC economies linked to the dollar through currency pegs, a stronger greenback can help moderate import costs for the region. At the height of inflation in the UAE in 2008, the Government struck a deal with several major retailers, including Carrefour and LuLu, to cap prices until the end of the year at 2007 levels.

tarnold@thenational

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BRIEF SCORES

England 353 and 313-8 dec
(B Stokes 112, A Cook 88; M Morkel 3-70, K Rabada 3-85)
(J Bairstow 63, T Westley 59, J Root 50; K Maharaj 3-50)
South Africa 175 and 252
(T Bavuma 52; T Roland-Jones 5-57, J Anderson 3-25)
(D Elgar 136; M Ali 4-45, T Roland-Jones 3-72)

Result: England won by 239 runs
England lead four-match series 2-1

RESULTS

6.30pm: Handicap (rated 100 ) US$175,000 1,200m
Winner: Baccarat, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby (trainer)

7.05pm: Handicap (78-94) $60,000 1,800m
Winner: Baroot, Christophe Soumillon, Mike de Kock

7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes Group 3 $200,000 1,600m
Winner: Heavy Metal, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer

8.15pm: Handicap (95-108) $125,000 1,200m
Winner: Yalta, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer

8.50pm: Balanchine Group 2 $200,000 1,800m
Winner: Promising Run, Pat Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor

9.25pm: Handicap (95-105) $125,000 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby

10pm: Handicap (95-105) $125,000 1,400m
Winner: Oh This Is Us, Tom Marquand, Richard Hannon

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

UAE currency

MO

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The biog

Name: Atheja Ali Busaibah

Date of birth: 15 November, 1951

Favourite books: Ihsan Abdel Quddous books, such as “The Sun will Never Set”

Hobbies: Reading and writing poetry

Yahya Al Ghassani's bio

Date of birth: April 18, 1998

Playing position: Winger

Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda

Qosty Byogaani

Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny

Four stars

UAE rugby in numbers

5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons

700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams

Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams

Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season

Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season

The President's Cake

Director: Hasan Hadi

Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem

Rating: 4/5

Final results:

Open men
Australia 94 (4) beat New Zealand 48 (0)

Plate men
England 85 (3) beat India 81 (1)

Open women
Australia 121 (4) beat South Africa 52 (0)

Under 22 men
Australia 68 (2) beat New Zealand 66 (2)

Under 22 women
Australia 92 (3) beat New Zealand 54 (1)

The team

Videographer: Jear Velasquez

Photography: Romeo Perez

Fashion director: Sarah Maisey

Make-up: Gulum Erzincan at Art Factory

Models: Meti and Clinton at MMG

Video assistant: Zanong Maget

Social media: Fatima Al Mahmoud