Earlier this month the Central Bank of the UAE removed a 20 per cent top limit on real estate lending as a percentage of bank deposits.
This is exactly the sort of regulatory action that is often later seen as the catalyst, or spark, for the recovery of a property market.
Central banks often call the shots in real estate markets. After all, it was the raising of mortgage deposits in December 2013 that brought the last Dubai mini-boom to an end, along with a doubling of transaction costs and a slump in the oil price.
Liquidity, or the flow of money, is the life blood of house prices. Anything that improves liquidity - and expanding lending limits above the previous cap does that - will benefit the sector.
However, the market is facing other strong headwinds that will at least partially offset any increase in UAE real estate bank loans.
The US Federal Reserve is currently committed to raising interest rates next month and forecasters expect two or three more small increase in 2019.
The UAE dirham is pegged to the dollar so interest rates move in unison. US fixed mortgage rates have jumped from a low of 3.6 to 5.2 per cent and local rates have followed.
That said, any more serious turbulence in global financial markets like what we saw in October could bring a sharp reversal of this monetary policy.
It is also just not fair to compare the US and UAE housing markets; they are in different cycles.
In the US, housing markets are just beginning to slow from a long bull market while the UAE has seen a 20 per cent fall in prices over the past five years. One market is just off the top, the other is far closer to the bottom, and that’s obviously the best time to buy.
However, what the UAE Central Bank does appear to be signalling is that it will now be supportive of real estate if global markets get any rougher.
That continues the more interventionist approach seen since late 2013 with action to prevent the market overheating.
________
Read more:
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Even Beyonce and Jay-Z have a mortgage
What does a higher interest rate mean for UAE consumers?
Buying in the UAE will always beat renting due to long-term capital gain
________
There has been no repeat of the huge boom of 2006-2008 since. This is because the Central Bank stopped house prices from going too high. Logically it will therefore now intervene to halt a bigger plunge in prices by keeping the liquidity spigot open and preventing a credit squeeze.
Those who have been sitting on the fence waiting for the right moment to buy local villas and apartments should perhaps consider this a loud ping in their inbox.
True in October oil prices fell by 20 per cent. But Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih was quick to cut December supply by 500,000 barrels per day to boost prices back up again, claiming that the market reaction to US waivers for Iranian imports was overdone.
Indeed in the third quarter the region's oil states saw their cash flow improve by 26 per cent by comparison with the same period a year ago, thanks to a doubling of oil prices, cancelling planned bond issues.
That is something of a contrast to the weakening economic situation in China - where auto sales are now forecast as stagnate for the first time ever this year, and Europe is facing the black cloud of the Brexit next March.
In short, the business cycle is now bottoming out in the oil states, usually the best time to invest in real estate because prices will be at their lowest.
Yes, prices could still go a little lower, but the biggest falls are done.
This month’s removal of the cap on bank lending could be seen as an acknowledgment by the Central Bank that it was premature in acting to cool real estate down a few years ago.
For sure, local property prices in early 2014 never even reached the heights of the previous boom before the impact of the oil price slowdown accelerated the induced decline in the sector.
There's also nothing like the same oversupply situation in the market as the slump of 2009-11, nor anything like the dramatic slowdown in local business witnessed in the global financial crisis.
Regional crises have weighed on the UAE economy over the past couple of years. If these are resolved in the future, the UAE’s status as a regional trading hub will boost business and demand for real estate. More jobs will mean higher demand for housing. Perhaps not enough is being built.
Often the night is darkest before the dawn.
In 2009 Dubai property looked a disaster zone yet by 2013 a combination of Arab Spring safe haven demand and $100 oil had worked wonders.
We should see a similar turnaround very soon now, if the oil price rally continues.
Peter Cooper has been writing about Gulf finance for two decades
if you go
The flights
Flydubai flies to Podgorica or nearby Tivat via Sarajevo from Dh2,155 return including taxes. Turkish Airlines flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Podgorica via Istanbul; alternatively, fly with Flydubai from Dubai to Belgrade and take a short flight with Montenegro Air to Podgorica. Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Podgorica via Belgrade. Flights cost from about Dh3,000 return including taxes. There are buses from Podgorica to Plav.
The tour
While you can apply for a permit for the route yourself, it’s best to travel with an agency that will arrange it for you. These include Zbulo in Albania (www.zbulo.org) or Zalaz in Montenegro (www.zalaz.me).
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
More on animal trafficking
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
MWTC info
Tickets to the MWTC range from Dh100 and can be purchased from www.ticketmaster.ae or by calling 800 86 823 from within the UAE or 971 4 366 2289 from outside the country and all Virgin Megastores. Fans looking to attend all three days of the MWTC can avail of a special 20 percent discount on ticket prices.
THE BIO
Ms Al Ameri likes the variety of her job, and the daily environmental challenges she is presented with.
Regular contact with wildlife is the most appealing part of her role at the Environment Agency Abu Dhabi.
She loves to explore new destinations and lives by her motto of being a voice in the world, and not an echo.
She is the youngest of three children, and has a brother and sister.
Her favourite book, Moby Dick by Herman Melville helped inspire her towards a career exploring the natural world.
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
MEYDAN%20RACECARD
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EArabian%20Adventures%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(Dirt)%201%2C200m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.35pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Sky%20Cargo%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%2087%2C500%20(D)%202%2C000m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.10pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Holiday%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(TB)%20Dh82%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.45pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Skywards%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh87%2C500%20(D)%201%2C400m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.20pm%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Emirates%20Airline%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh105%2C000%20(D)%201%2C600m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.55pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates%20Airline%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh105%2C000%20(D)%201%2C900m%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E9.30pm%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEmirates.com%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB_%20Dh87%2C500%20(D)%201%2C200m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
Bio
Age: 25
Town: Al Diqdaqah – Ras Al Khaimah
Education: Bachelors degree in mechanical engineering
Favourite colour: White
Favourite place in the UAE: Downtown Dubai
Favourite book: A Life in Administration by Ghazi Al Gosaibi.
First owned baking book: How to Be a Domestic Goddess by Nigella Lawson.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
MATCH INFO
Aston Villa 1 (Konsa 63')
Sheffield United 0
Red card: Jon Egan (Sheffield United)
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Company Profile
Founders: Tamara Hachem and Yazid Erman
Based: Dubai
Launched: September 2019
Sector: health technology
Stage: seed
Investors: Oman Technology Fund, angel investor and grants from Sharjah's Sheraa and Ma'an Abu Dhabi
GROUPS
Group Gustavo Kuerten
Novak Djokovic (x1)
Alexander Zverev (x3)
Marin Cilic (x5)
John Isner (x8)
Group Lleyton Hewitt
Roger Federer (x2)
Kevin Anderson (x4)
Dominic Thiem (x6)
Kei Nishikori (x7)
UAE squad v Australia
Rohan Mustafa (C), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Fahad Nawaz, Amjed Gul, Shaiman Anwar, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Muhammad Naveed, Amir Hayat, Ghulam Shabir (WK), Qadeer Ahmed, Tahir Latif, Zahoor Khan
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
If you go
The flights
There are various ways of getting to the southern Serengeti in Tanzania from the UAE. The exact route and airstrip depends on your overall trip itinerary and which camp you’re staying at.
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Kilimanjaro International Airport from Dh1,350 return, including taxes; this can be followed by a short flight from Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti with Coastal Aviation from about US$700 (Dh2,500) return, including taxes. Kenya Airways, Emirates and Etihad offer flights via Nairobi or Dar es Salaam.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
Venue: Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Date: Sunday, November 25
