FILE PHOTO: Gold bullion is displayed at Hatton Garden Metals precious metal dealers in London, Britain July 21, 2015. REUTERS/Neil Hall/File Photo
Number of people with $500m or more is on the rise and set to grow further in the region. Reuters

Is gold set for a much brighter future?



The gold price is set in the Comex futures exchange by the trading of futures contracts and not the amount of gold traded in Dubai, India or anywhere else.

Therefore, if you want to read the future of gold prices, the Comex is the place to address your thoughts. Typically it is a rather bewildering place for amateur speculators who generally get their positions wrong, while professional commercial investors control the market.

But over the summer a clear pattern has emerged, and one that has almost always come before a very much higher price for gold and silver.

Basically, professional investors have all switched to the long side of the market, including the most powerful JP Morgan. Meanwhile, smaller speculators have been lured into record short positions, thinking that gold has had it and Wall Street is the only game in town.

All the commercial longs have to do now is tip the market into a mild upturn and all these short positions will have to cover. That is to say buy gold contracts to close off their losing short positions before they get into even more financial trouble.

This should lead to a sudden flood of buyers that will drive precious metal prices sharply higher, triggering phase one of a new bull phase. The long commercial Comex players will win yet again, along with anybody who’s been bright enough to see what is coming.

This phase of a gold bull market takes around three to four months to play out before the wider financial markets are convinced it is happening and then all pile in for phases two and three.

The final phase of a commodities bull market - like the one that started in gold in 2000 is always a price spike, not something we have seen yet.

The collapse of cryptocurrencies last week could be the driver that opens the way for substantial gold price rises as cryptos have distracted speculators from precious metals. So too the recent emerging markets crash, and a growing correction in major stock markets.

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Read more from Peter Cooper:

Time to take profits on US tech stock double-bubble

Why gold will remain one of the safest ports during the turbulent times ahead

Time to Trump audit your portfolio and eliminate any bubble trouble

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September is usually a much better month for gold with the metal up an average of two per cent since it became freely traded in the early 70s, although it was down 2 per cent in September last year.

The gold price plunged alarmingly late in August, hitting a low of $1,172 an ounce. But this now increasingly looks like the bottom of the dive from its April high of $1,375.

One worry among the smaller speculators is whether this price plunge might get worse before gold’s next advance.

That happened in the last global financial crash when gold sank with all the other ships, albeit it was the best performing major asset class, apart from silver, after that crash.

However, this time is somewhat different. In the past the Federal Reserve has responded to stock market crashes by slashing interest rates by up to 5 per cent.

With interest rates currently still very low, the Fed cannot do this without taking them into negative territory - something that has never happened before in the US but has in the EU.

Anything even close to negative US real interest rates (that is the base rate minus inflation) would be hugely positive for gold as the metal does not pay interest, but then again cannot deduct negative interest either.

Indeed, this is unlikely to be like 2008-9 for gold prices - when prices slumped deeply with the stock market - because gold is coming off a near 50 per cent price correction from 2011-15, and not falling from a record high as it was back then.

Instead, turn your thoughts to January and February 2016 when the Dow lost 2,000 points and gold shot up $200.

Even if there is no US stock market correction, then the Trump administration is clearly putting pressure on the Fed to stop raising interest rates and strengthening the dollar further before the upcoming mid-term elections. That would also be good for gold.

Likewise the growing emerging market currency crisis - a direct effect of the dollar’s rising value - could force the Fed to put its rate hikes on hold, boosting gold.

Also, consider the established link between the price of oil and gold. Oil prices have bounced back from the lows of four years ago and in the past year the oil revenues of the Gulf states have grown by around 25 per cent.

But the surging oil price has not yet brought a commensurate increase in the gold price as it almost always has in the past.

This market anomaly ought to be about to correct itself, particularly as the upward pressure on oil prices is unabated with upcoming supply issues from the renewed US sanctions on Iran, not to mention problems affecting oil’s so-called ‘fragile five’: Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq, Libya and Algeria. US shale oil production has also peaked and entered a steep decline.

At the same time central banks continue to buy gold. Russia has dumped the lion’s share of its US treasuries this year and continued to buy bullion. Gold buying through the Shanghai Gold Exchange is up 6 per cent to 1,366 tonnes year-to-date.

So apart from Comex price fixing, why did the gold price slump from $1,375 down to $1,172 from April through to late August this year?

Blame the 6.5 per cent rise in the US dollar index over those months. Gold is priced in US dollars and depreciates like any other currency as the dollar rises.

Many currency analysts now think the dollar’s rally is overdone and overdue for a correction. Again the technical chartists can point to the end of a trend, and some fundamentalists say interest rate rises are almost done or actually over, as does the yield on 10-year treasury bonds.

Lastly don’t forget the normal seasonal pattern of gold. Indian religious festivals always tend to give prices a boost in the autumn months. In fact, Indian gold imports more than doubled in August compared with the same month last year to stock up at low prices.

Gold exchange traded products like GLD or SGOL are the easiest and cheapest way to invest in gold. Buying the physical stuff down the gold souk is a storage and insurance headache, and the buy-to-sell spread is higher.

Precious metal investors often leverage up on rising gold prices by buying silver instead. The tighter supply of silver than gold means its price increases faster when precious metals rally.

Silver ETFs like SLV or PSLV, that can be bought through any online trading platform, are even more convenient than their gold equivalents as silver is only worth around one eightieth of the price of gold and investing a large amount creates a weighty amount of the physical metal.

Peter Cooper has been writing about finance in the Gulf for more than two decades 

THE SPECS

Engine: 3-litre V6

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 424hp

Torque: 580 Nm

Price: From Dh399,000

On sale: Now

SPEC SHEET: NOTHING PHONE (2a)

Display: 6.7” flexible Amoled, 2412 x 1080, 394ppi, 120Hz, Corning Gorilla Glass 5

Processor: MediaTek Dimensity 7200 Pro, 4nm, octa-core

Memory: 8/12GB

Capacity: 128/256GB

Platform: Android 14, Nothing OS 2.5

Main camera: Dual 50MP main, f/1.88 + 50MP ultra-wide, f/2.2; OIS, EIS, auto-focus, ultra XDR, night mode

Main camera video: 4K @ 30fps, full-HD @ 60fps; slo-mo full-HD at 120fps

Front camera: 32MP wide, f/2.2

Battery: 5000mAh; 50% in 30 mins w/ 45w charger

Connectivity: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.3, NFC (Google Pay)

Biometrics: Fingerprint, face unlock

I/O: USB-C

Durability: IP54, limited protection from water/dust

Cards: Dual-nano SIM

Colours: Black, milk, white

In the box: Nothing Phone (2a), USB-C-to-USB-C cable, pre-applied screen protector, SIM tray ejector tool

Price (UAE): Dh1,199 (8GB/128GB) / Dh1,399 (12GB/256GB)

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

Padmaavat

Director: Sanjay Leela Bhansali

Starring: Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone, Shahid Kapoor, Jim Sarbh

3.5/5

The Little Mermaid

Director: Rob Marshall
Stars: Halle Bailey, Jonah Hauer-King, Melissa McCarthy, Javier Bardem
Rating: 2/5

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Xpanceo

Started: 2018

Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov

Based: Dubai, UAE

Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality

Funding: $40 million

Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)

SPEC SHEET: SAMSUNG GALAXY Z FLIP5

Display: Main – 6.7" FHD+ Dynamic Amoled 2X, 2640 x 1080, 22:9, 425ppi, HDR10+, up to 120Hz; cover – 3/4" Super Amoled, 720 x 748, 306ppi

Processor: Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 2, 4nm, octa-core; Adreno 740 GPU

Memory: 8GB

Capacity: 256/512GB

Platform: Android 13, One UI 5.1.1

Main camera: Dual 12MP ultra-wide (f/2.2) + 12MP wide (f/1.8), OIS

Video: 4K@30/60fps, full-HD@60/240fps, HD@960fps

Front camera: 10MP (f/2.2)

Battery: 3700mAh, 25W fast charging, 15W wireless, 4.5W reverse wireless

Connectivity: 5G; Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.3, NFC (Samsung Pay)

I/O: USB-C

Cards: Nano-SIM + eSIM; no microSD slot

Colours: Cream, graphite, lavender, mint; Samsung.com exclusives – blue, grey, green, yellow

In the box: Flip 4, USB-C-to-USB-C cable

Price: Dh3,899 / Dh4,349

The Woman King

Director: Gina Prince-Bythewood

Stars: Viola Davis, Thuso Mbedu, Sheila Atim, Lashana Lynch, John Boyega 

Rating: 3/5

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 190hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 10.9L/100km
Price: From Dh119,900
On sale: Now

Company profile

Company name: Fasset
Started: 2019
Founders: Mohammad Raafi Hossain, Daniel Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $2.45 million
Current number of staff: 86
Investment stage: Pre-series B
Investors: Investcorp, Liberty City Ventures, Fatima Gobi Ventures, Primal Capital, Wealthwell Ventures, FHS Capital, VN2 Capital, local family offices

J Street Polling Results

97% of Jewish-Americans are concerned about the rise in anti-Semitism

76% of US Jewish voters believe Donald Trump and his allies in the Republican Party are responsible for a rise in anti-Semitism

74% of American Jews agreed that “Trump and the Maga movement are a threat to Jews in America"

Story behind the UAE flag

The UAE flag was first unveiled on December 2, 1971, the day the UAE was formed. 

It was designed by Abdullah Mohammed Al Maainah, 19, an Emirati from Abu Dhabi. 

Mr Al Maainah said in an interview with The National in 2011 he chose the colours for local reasons. 

The black represents the oil riches that transformed the UAE, green stands for fertility and the red and white colours were drawn from those found in existing emirate flags.

COMPANY PROFILE

Company name: Klipit

Started: 2022

Founders: Venkat Reddy, Mohammed Al Bulooki, Bilal Merchant, Asif Ahmed, Ovais Merchant

Based: Dubai, UAE

Industry: Digital receipts, finance, blockchain

Funding: $4 million

Investors: Privately/self-funded

The Specs:

The Specs:

Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Power: 444bhp

Torque: 600Nm

Price: AED 356,580 incl VAT

On sale: now.

How to come clean about financial infidelity
  • Be honest and transparent: It is always better to own up than be found out. Tell your partner everything they want to know. Show remorse. Inform them of the extent of the situation so they know what they are dealing with.
  • Work on yourself: Be honest with yourself and your partner and figure out why you did it. Don’t be ashamed to ask for professional help. 
  • Give it time: Like any breach of trust, it requires time to rebuild. So be consistent, communicate often and be patient with your partner and yourself.
  • Discuss your financial situation regularly: Ensure your spouse is involved in financial matters and decisions. Your ability to consistently follow through with what you say you are going to do when it comes to money can make all the difference in your partner’s willingness to trust you again.
  • Work on a plan to resolve the problem together: If there is a lot of debt, for example, create a budget and financial plan together and ensure your partner is fully informed, involved and supported. 

Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching

Name: Peter Dicce

Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics

Favourite sport: soccer

Favourite team: Bayern Munich

Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer

Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates 

 

Company Profile

Company name: Namara
Started: June 2022
Founder: Mohammed Alnamara
Based: Dubai
Sector: Microfinance
Current number of staff: 16
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Family offices

THE BIO

Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.

Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.

Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.

Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.

 

 

Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica

Best Agent: Jorge Mendes

Best Club : Liverpool   

 Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)  

 Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker

 Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo

 Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP

 Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart

Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)

Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)

Best Women's Player:  Lucy Bronze

Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi

 Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)

 Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)

 Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs

Ramez Gab Min El Akher

Creator: Ramez Galal

Starring: Ramez Galal

Streaming on: MBC Shahid

Rating: 2.5/5

Five expert hiking tips
  • Always check the weather forecast before setting off
  • Make sure you have plenty of water
  • Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
  • Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
  • Take your litter home with you
Confirmed bouts (more to be added)

Cory Sandhagen v Umar Nurmagomedov
Nick Diaz v Vicente Luque
Michael Chiesa v Tony Ferguson
Deiveson Figueiredo v Marlon Vera
Mackenzie Dern v Loopy Godinez

Tickets for the August 3 Fight Night, held in partnership with the Department of Culture and Tourism Abu Dhabi, went on sale earlier this month, through www.etihadarena.ae and www.ticketmaster.ae.

If you go

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.

The car

Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.

Parks and accommodation

For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.

Turning waste into fuel

Average amount of biofuel produced at DIC factory every month: Approximately 106,000 litres

Amount of biofuel produced from 1 litre of used cooking oil: 920ml (92%)

Time required for one full cycle of production from used cooking oil to biofuel: One day

Energy requirements for one cycle of production from 1,000 litres of used cooking oil:
▪ Electricity - 1.1904 units
▪ Water- 31 litres
▪ Diesel – 26.275 litres

ROUTE TO TITLE

Round 1: Beat Leolia Jeanjean 6-1, 6-2
Round 2: Beat Naomi Osaka 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
Round 3: Beat Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2
Round 4: Beat Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0
Quarter-final: Beat Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2
Semi-final: Beat Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-4
Final: Beat Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-2

What drives subscription retailing?

Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.

The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.

The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.

The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.

UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.

That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.

Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.

The Book of Collateral Damage

Sinan Antoon

(Yale University Press)

COMPANY PROFILE

Company name: Almouneer
Started: 2017
Founders: Dr Noha Khater and Rania Kadry
Based: Egypt
Number of staff: 120
Investment: Bootstrapped, with support from Insead and Egyptian government, seed round of
$3.6 million led by Global Ventures

Sarfira

Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad

Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal

Rating: 2/5

Squad: Majed Naser, Abdulaziz Sanqour, Walid Abbas, Khamis Esmail, Habib Fardan, Mohammed Marzouq (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Khalid Essa, Muhanad Salem, Mohammed Ahmed, Ismail Ahmed, Ahmed Barman,  Amer Abdulrahman, Omar Abdulrahman (Al Ain), Ali Khaseif, Fares Juma, Mohammed Fawzi, Khalfan Mubarak, Mohammed Jamal, Ahmed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Ahmed Rashid, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Wahda), Tariq Ahmed, Mahmoud Khamis, Khalifa Mubarak, Jassim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Yousef Saeed (Sharjah), Suhail Al Nubi (Baniyas)

Women’s T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier

ICC Academy, November 22-28

UAE fixtures
Nov 22, v Malaysia
Nov 23, v Hong Kong
Nov 25, v Bhutan
Nov 26, v Kuwait
Nov 28, v Nepal

ICC T20I rankings
14. Nepal
17. UAE
25. Hong Kong
34. Kuwait
35. Malaysia
44. Bhutan

UAE squad
Chaya Mughal (captain), Natasha Cherriath, Samaira Dharnidharka, Kavisha Egodage, Mahika Gaur, Priyanjali Jain, Suraksha Kotte, Vaishnave Mahesh, Judit Peter, Esha Rohit, Theertha Satish, Chamani Seneviratne, Khushi Sharma, Subha Venkataraman


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