In the end global equity markets finished last week positively, buoyed by a strong US employment report and by hopes that a hastily convened meeting between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might herald a rapprochement between the two countries, putting an end to fears of a nuclear confrontation. However, this was not the story of the whole week in which markets were rattled by the threat of a global trade war after President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
Taken together, the week’s events highlight the many faces of the Trump White House and the multiple risks and opportunities that may well arise from it over the rest of the year. Markets may well like the almost ‘goldilocks’ economic news, but the outcome of the North Korea summit is almost impossible to predict. The risk of a broader shift in trade policy towards protectionism is something that cannot be discounted and which could in turn threaten the continuation of steady economic growth, while also complicating the progress of any talks with North Korea.
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Read more from Tim Fox:
Why the Eibor is trading below the Libor
A healthy correction may not be the end result of the global market rout
Trump's politics is hurting the dollar
Markets can no longer ignore Fed's bullish rate rise rhetoric
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Although the impact of the measures announced - a 25 per cent global tariff on steel imports and 10 per cent on aluminum imports - may not in themselves amount to much, especially after some notable exemptions are allowed, it will be the secondary, tertiary and mostly unintended consequences that will determine their true effect on the US economy and the rest of the world.
It might be tempting to dismiss the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs as a one-off that will not be repeated across other sectors, but the signs are already ominous that this will not be the case. The balance of personnel at the White House has tilted significantly towards protectionism in recent weeks, most notably with the departure of Gary Cohn as Mr Trump’s chief economic adviser, and with trade hawks such as commerce secretary Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro now in the ascendency. The US political calendar, with mid-term elections due in November, also makes trade an issue that is likely to be exploited for maximum political advantage in the coming months, with protectionist rhetoric having played a significant part in Mr Trump’s 2016 election win.
As the Financial Times pointed out on Friday, US steel tariffs are likely to be an 'opening shot in a bigger trade war with China', with investigations also underway in Washington over whether China is violating intellectual property rights. A final report about this will probably form the basis for the US placing tariffs on a wider array of Chinese goods, while the US Treasury is also preparing its annual report on foreign exchange manipulation that could also be used to target China. This could then turn trade tensions into an outright 'race to the bottom', with currency depreciation policies being added to an ever more disruptive cocktail of threats to the stability of the international financial system.
The reactions of other countries could also make an outright trade war a more protracted risk, and with it hasten the possibility of a return to a global recession. North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations, which are already progressing slowly, could easily break down.
The EU has already prepared counter measures on €2.8 billion (Dh3.44bn)of imports from the US, even as the EU is likely to make its case for special exemptions. Asian countries were already targeted with tariffs on washing machines and solar panels in January and are also likely to seek exemptions, but 11 have also signed a new Trans Pacific Partnership, after the US withdrew from the original one last year, a move that underlines a sense of growing alarm. Against this background, nuclear talks between the US and North Korea could also face serious complications if America's regional allies are not on board over trade issues. China for sure would be likely to retaliate, with its ultimate financial retaliation being the unloading of its holdings of US Treasuries, which could force US bond yields higher and risk undermining US economic growth. The GCC has specific exposure to the tariff's first-round effects through UAE aluminum exports, but increasing dependence on global trade maintains a vulnerability to wider second-round effects as well.
Far from being ‘easy to win’, a trade war is likely to prove very difficult to reverse in the context of an already challenging and complex global environment.
Tim Fox is group chief economist and head of research at Emirates NBD
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Bookshops: A Reader's History by Jorge Carrión (translated from the Spanish by Peter Bush),
Biblioasis
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 290hp
Torque: 340Nm
Price: Dh155,800
On sale: now
About Krews
Founder: Ahmed Al Qubaisi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: January 2019
Number of employees: 10
Sector: Technology/Social media
Funding to date: Estimated $300,000 from Hub71 in-kind support
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FIXTURES
All kick-off times 10.45pm UAE ( 4 GMT) unless stated
Tuesday
Sevilla v Maribor
Spartak Moscow v Liverpool
Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk
Napoli v Feyenoord
Besiktas v RB Leipzig
Monaco v Porto
Apoel Nicosia v Tottenham Hotspur
Borussia Dortmund v Real Madrid
Wednesday
Basel v Benfica
CSKA Moscow Manchester United
Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich
Anderlecht v Celtic
Qarabag v Roma (8pm)
Atletico Madrid v Chelsea
Juventus v Olympiakos
Sporting Lisbon v Barcelona
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
RESULTS
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Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
Brave CF 27 fight card
Welterweight:
Abdoul Abdouraguimov (champion, FRA) v Jarrah Al Selawe (JOR)
Lightweight:
Anas Siraj Mounir (TUN) v Alex Martinez (CAN)
Welterweight:
Mzwandile Hlongwa (RSA) v Khamzat Chimaev (SWE)
Middleweight:
Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Rustam Chsiev (RUS)
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) v Christofer Silva (BRA)
Super lightweight:
Alex Nacfur (BRA) v Dwight Brooks (USA)
Bantamweight:
Jalal Al Daaja (JOR) v Tariq Ismail (CAN)
Chris Corton (PHI) v Zia Mashwani (PAK)
Featherweight:
Sulaiman (KUW) v Abdullatip (RUS)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) v Mohammad Al Katib (JOR)
MATCH INFO
Day 2 at Mount Maunganui
England 353
Stokes 91, Denly 74, Southee 4-88
New Zealand 144-4
Williamson 51, S Curran 2-28
Closing the loophole on sugary drinks
As The National reported last year, non-fizzy sugared drinks were not covered when the original tax was introduced in 2017. Sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, 20 grams of sugar per 500ml bottle.
The non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
Flavoured water, long-life fruit juice concentrates, pre-packaged sweetened coffee drinks fall under the ‘sweetened drink’ category
Not taxed:
Freshly squeezed fruit juices, ground coffee beans, tea leaves and pre-prepared flavoured milkshakes do not come under the ‘sweetened drink’ band.
Company Profile
Company name: Yeepeey
Started: Soft launch in November, 2020
Founders: Sagar Chandiramani, Jatin Sharma and Monish Chandiramani
Based: Dubai
Industry: E-grocery
Initial investment: $150,000
Future plan: Raise $1.5m and enter Saudi Arabia next year
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
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Stan%20Lee
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Where to Find Me by Alba Arikha
Alma Books
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
PETER%20PAN%20%26%20WENDY
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ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
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Monday's results
- UAE beat Bahrain by 51 runs
- Qatar beat Maldives by 44 runs
- Saudi Arabia beat Kuwait by seven wickets
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding