Remember gold?
It seems like only six years ago the shiny metal was flavour of the month, hitting a record $1,900 a troy ounce while its backers prophesied the end of the fiat money system.
With bitcoin sucking up all the crazy in financial markets, gold looks to have lost its lustre. The CBOE/Comex Gold Volatility Index, a rough proxy for the amount of fun and profit available for precious metal traders, touched a record low of 10.17 last month, from levels north of 37 back in 2011.
That may be overdue a change. Despite suffering its worst week since May last week, the outlook for gold could be stronger now than it has been for several months. Here's why.
1. Interest rates
That may look like a typo, but it's not. The received wisdom is that higher interest rates - like the US Fed Funds rate hike expected on Wednesday - are bad news for gold. That's because tighter money tends to be accompanied by better bond yields and stronger earnings, highlighting commodities' inability to produce income for investors.
The truth isn't quite so simple. After all, spot gold was stuck around $1,060 an ounce two years ago when the US Federal Reserve started lifting rates above their post-financial crisis level of 0.25 per cent. At 100 basis points north of there, gold is trading around $1,248 an ounce.
Chart gold against US 10-year Treasury yields and it looks distinctly like the metal tends to sell the rumour of rate rises, and buy the fact. Every time yields have peaked north of 2.5 per cent over the past five years, gold has promptly rallied. Economists predict that yield barrier should be broken some time in the first quarter of 2018.
2. The seasons, they go round and round
As argued previously, gold exhibits a pronounced seasonality. January, February, July and August - the four months this year when the metal has rallied most strongly - had, on average, been the best months to buy gold over the previous 10 years.
That seems to relate to resurgent demand from bar, coin and ETF investors coinciding with the tail end of the Diwali-Christmas-Lunar New Year peak buying period for jewellery. Whatever the reason, it's enough of a consistent pattern these days that it's starting to become a self-fulfilling prophecy - traders' beliefs have a way of driving their buy and sell orders, and ultimately the market.
_____
Read more:
Could gold do a bitcoin and hit $10,000 an ounce in 2018?
Gold trades lower but the dip may not last long
Will gold shine brightly again this autumn as bitcoin crashes?
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3. What an unpleasant surprise
Gold is the downer at every economic party. When the good times are rolling, people would rather be punting their money on dragon-head stocks than a prehistoric metal that's an emblem of miserliness. No wonder, with the global economy celebrating as it has been in 2017, bullion doesn't have a dance partner.
Still, all parties must come to an end - and it's worth reflecting on just how unexpectedly good things have been lately. Citigroup's surprise index for data on major economies reached a reading of 49.5 last month, a level it hasn't breached since 2010. Expectations eventually catch up to a run of positive surprises, leading to disappointment as consistently as stomach aches follow too much celebratory eating.
4. A bit of bad news
Bitcoin's wild gyrations could be the spark to set any of the above factors in motion. Given the similarities between the investment philosophies of gold bugs and bitcoin fanatics, it's hard to escape the notion that the precious metal has been so somnolent precisely because so much of the hot money has been going into zeroes and ones.
It's anyone's guess when or why bitcoin fever will break, but at a time when the bosses of major brokerages are warning darkly of "a catastrophe in the cryptocurrency market," it's not impossible to imagine a disorderly retreat.
If that happens, many of the fiat-money brigade who've pumped up the value of digital currencies will switch quickly from bitcoin, to cash, to their perceived safe haven of gold. More sober investors also tend to cling to the metal in moments of panic such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump.
Gold may be a barbarous relic - but relics are rarely more attractive to investors than when they're trembling before the power of the market's gods. Don't count it out just yet.
David Fickling is a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist covering commodities, as well as industrial and consumer companies
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
Review: Tomb Raider
Dir: Roar Uthaug
Starring: Alicia Vikander, Dominic West, Daniel Wu, Walter Goggins
two stars
Gulf Men's League final
Dubai Hurricanes 24-12 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Chelsea 2 Burnley 3
Chelsea Morata (69'), Luiz (88')
Burnley Vokes (24', 43'), Ward (39')
Red cards Cahill, Fabregas (Chelsea)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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UAE%20set%20for%20Scotland%20series
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Recipe
Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo
Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes
Cooking time: 5 minutes
Serves 4
Ingredients
180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
Method
▶ Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.
▶ Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.
▶ Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking, remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.
▶ Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.
3%20Body%20Problem
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KINGDOM%20OF%20THE%20PLANET%20OF%20THE%20APES
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ROUTE%20TO%20TITLE
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Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E6.5-litre%20V12%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E725hp%20at%207%2C750rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E716Nm%20at%206%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQ4%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1%2C650%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Keep it fun and engaging
Stuart Ritchie, director of wealth advice at AES International, says children cannot learn something overnight, so it helps to have a fun routine that keeps them engaged and interested.
“I explain to my daughter that the money I draw from an ATM or the money on my bank card doesn’t just magically appear – it’s money I have earned from my job. I show her how this works by giving her little chores around the house so she can earn pocket money,” says Mr Ritchie.
His daughter is allowed to spend half of her pocket money, while the other half goes into a bank account. When this money hits a certain milestone, Mr Ritchie rewards his daughter with a small lump sum.
He also recommends books that teach the importance of money management for children, such as The Squirrel Manifesto by Ric Edelman and Jean Edelman.
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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Company%20Profile
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The biog
Fatima Al Darmaki is an Emirati widow with three children
She has received 46 certificates of appreciation and excellence throughout her career
She won the 'ideal mother' category at the Minister of Interior Awards for Excellence
Her favourite food is Harees, a slow-cooked porridge-like dish made from boiled wheat berries mixed with chicken
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20with%2048V%20mild%20hybrid%20system%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E544hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E750Nm%20at%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh700%2C000%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Elate%20November%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
Coming 2 America
Directed by: Craig Brewer
Starring: Eddie Murphy, Arsenio Hall, Jermaine Fowler, Leslie Jones
3/5 stars
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Company%20profile
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'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
Scorecard
Scotland 220
K Coetzer 95, J Siddique 3-49, R Mustafa 3-35
UAE 224-3 in 43,5 overs
C Suri 67, B Hameed 63 not out
Representing%20UAE%20overseas
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