After a dramatically dismal week for the pound punctuated by a flash crash in Asia, traders doubt it will shake off its tag of the worst-performing major currency in 2016.
They’re negative because sterling is held hostage by the prospects of a hard Brexit and its impacts on the UK economy. That adds to concern over how the third-most traded currency pair, the pound-dollar, could crash and bounce back with no apparent explanation beyond speculation that computer-driven trading was to blame.
The pound’s weekly decline was the second-worst since Britain voted to leave the European Union June 23. The sell-off Friday, when investors were spooked by a 6.1 per cent plunge in two minutes, only hastened a decline that kicked off earlier in the week when prime minister Theresa May signalled a crackdown on immigration should take precedence over access to the bloc’s single market.
“There’s not a lot of upside” for sterling, said Ryan Myerberg, a portfolio manager at Janus Capital in London. “Extreme moves like the one we had overnight on Friday are obviously surprising, but there is a context of a country that is having a lot of political issues. We have a lot of uncertainty around what’s going to happen with Brexit and the relationship with Europe.”
Sterling slid 1.4 per cent to US$1.2441 on Friday as of 5:45pm in London. The weekly drop of 4.1 per cent, the most since June 24, brings its decline since the referendum to 16 per cent. The currency also depreciated against the single currency, down 3.5 per cent in the week to 89.72 pence per euro.
“The pound is still in the process of trying to establish a new equilibrium following the flash crash overnight,” which has “reinforced negative sentiment towards the currency” driven by concerns over a so-called hard Brexit, said Lee Hardman, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. “It will take time after such destabilising price action.”
As strategists and investors speculated on what sparked the crash during Asian hours, the currency rebounded from a low of $1.1841, swinging more than six times as much as its one-year median move.
Signs that the divorce talks — and terms — of Britain’s planned exit from the world’s largest trading bloc were likely to be bitter emerged in the annual Conservative party conference that ended Wednesday. An aide to Brexit secretary David Davis outlined what he called red lines for the UK. They included giving up free movement of labour among others. In response, European leaders signalled a growing reluctance to grant any special terms to post-Brexit Britain.
“The pound is in a free-fall and nobody wants to touch it right now,” said Aurelija Augulyte, a strategist at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen. “But parity calls emerge, so the bottom must be near.” Augulyte predicts the pound will tumble to $1.20 and recover to $1.27 in three months.
As politics take centre stage for the currency’s future and with less than six months to go before the UK government has said it will trigger the EU’s Article 50 to begin its withdrawal, investors question whether the currency has found its bottom yet.
Friday’s flash crash-fuelled slump on the pound has made the possibility of a historic $1 level more real, with a Bloomberg forecasting model based on implied volatility showing about a 7 per cent chance of it happening within a year.
“The fact that you don’t get paid to own sterling, with rates at zero” and a “massive” current-account deficit are adding to the currency’s woes, says Mr Myerberg. He’s keeping his forecast for the pound at $1.20 by year-end, but with “potential to go lower.”
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Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
-2013: 10,000-tonne meteor burns up over the southern Urals region of Russia, releasing a pressure blast and flash that left over 1600 people injured.
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Company name: Klipit
Started: 2022
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Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Digital receipts, finance, blockchain
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Investors: Privately/self-funded
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Group Lleyton Hewitt
Roger Federer (x2)
Kevin Anderson (x4)
Dominic Thiem (x6)
Kei Nishikori (x7)
RESULT
RS Leipzig 3
Marcel Sabitzer 10', 21'
Emil Forsberg 87'
Tottenham 0
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Friday Leganes v Alaves, 10.15pm; Valencia v Las Palmas, 12.15am
Saturday Celta Vigo v Real Sociedad, 8.15pm; Girona v Atletico Madrid, 10.15pm; Sevilla v Espanyol, 12.15am
Sunday Athletic Bilbao v Getafe, 8.15am; Barcelona v Real Betis, 10.15pm; Deportivo v Real Madrid, 12.15am
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Rating: 5/5
Our legal consultants
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Company name: Almouneer
Started: 2017
Founders: Dr Noha Khater and Rania Kadry
Based: Egypt
Number of staff: 120
Investment: Bootstrapped, with support from Insead and Egyptian government, seed round of
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MATCH INFO
Liverpool 0
Stoke City 0
Man of the Match: Erik Pieters (Stoke)
SRI LANKS ODI SQUAD
Perera (capt), Mendis, Gunathilaka, de Silva, Nissanka, Shanaka, Bandara, Hasaranga, Udana, Dananjaya, Dickwella, Chameera, Mendis, Fernando, Sandakan, Karunaratne, Fernando, Fernando.
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CONFIRMED LINE-UP
Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan)
Ons Jabeur (Tunisia)
Maria Sakkari (Greece)
Barbora Krejčíková (Czech Republic)
Beatriz Haddad Maia (Brazil)
Jeļena Ostapenko (Latvia)
Liudmila Samsonova
Daria Kasatkina
Veronika Kudermetova
Caroline Garcia (France)
Magda Linette (Poland)
Sorana Cîrstea (Romania)
Anastasia Potapova
Anhelina Kalinina (Ukraine)
Jasmine Paolini (Italy)
Emma Navarro (USA)
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Ashes 2019 schedule
August 1-5: First Test, Edgbaston
August 14-18: Second Test, Lord's
August 22-26: Third Test, Headingley
September 4-8: Fourth Test, Old Trafford
September 12-16: Fifth Test, Oval
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: SmartCrowd
Started: 2018
Founder: Siddiq Farid and Musfique Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech / PropTech
Initial investment: $650,000
Current number of staff: 35
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Various institutional investors and notable angel investors (500 MENA, Shurooq, Mada, Seedstar, Tricap)