The first barrel of oil to be exported from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish north, which looks increasingly likely to be next month, may be a victory for a region with a thinly veiled desire for full independence from Baghdad.
The shipment of oil, produced under disputed deals signed by the Kurdish regional government, is an implicit validation of these production sharing contracts, and a major setback to the interests of a federal Iraq and, by extension, all resource holders in the Gulf.
Baghdad has long resisted the idea of Kurdistan exporting oil under the contracts it signed with a handful of small western oil prospectors.
The federal government argued that the deals lacked the seal of national approval, were awarded outside any openly competitive process and that they signed away ownership of sovereign resources without the necessary legal authority.
This disagreement is couched within a wider dispute over the Kurds' territorial claims over the city of Kirkuk, and a deep-seated desire by many Kurds for an independent state.
If Kurdish oil begins to flow through Iraq's pipeline next month this will be a major climbdown by Baghdad. The federal government appears to have been swayed by its desire for more cash at a time when output from the south of the country is falling and weak prices have already forced unpopular spending cuts.
The Kurdish crude will be sold by the Iraqi state oil company and the proceeds routed through the federal revenue system under which Kurdistan gets 17 per cent of the national oil pie.
But the deal means that the federal government has accepted the production-sharing deals signed by the Kurds, undermining Baghdad's ability to impose a unitary legal framework over the country's economic mainstay.
For the Kurds, allowing Iraq's state oil company to market the oil is a small price to pay for the recognition of its contractual regime, which is fundamental to its ambitions for more autonomy.
The deal with Baghdad is a reward for companies that aligned themselves with the regional government in Erbil, even at the cost of incurring the wrath of the Iraqi oil minister, who has barred them from participating in licences for much larger fields in Iraq proper.
Kurdistan's generous oil regime has certainly brought in the investors, who have spotted a breach in the nation's commercial defences.
Despite the vociferous protests of the federal government, 20 independent oil companies, among them Canadian, British, American and Norwegian firms, have signed up for drilling rights.
The Kurdish regional government now expects to export 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month, rising quickly to 250,000 bpd. And the plans do not stop there.
Heritage, a small Canadian oil company, said last week that it had found up to four billion barrels, giving added credibility to the region's aspiration of producing 2 million bpd in as little as five years.
Production-sharing agreements, which call for the foreign investor to shoulder all the upfront costs in return for a lion's share of the early oil and a dominant role in decision-making, are viewed with scepticism by many in OPEC.
They offer incentives to maximise production even when oil prices are low, which goes contrary to the tenets of OPEC, whose only policy tool is to control production.
The deals threaten to undercut the terms being offered by the Iraqi government for access to its reserves and, by extension, they lower the bar for other Gulf nations and OPEC in general.
Lower barriers to entry into Middle-Eastern oil reserves give more room to consuming nations to capture a bigger share of the pump price through taxes, at the expense of producers.
Necessity has forced the two sides together, but the deal to ship Kurdish oil to Europe fails to resolve differences in contractual terms with Baghdad, which are not sustainable within a single sovereign entity.
Kurdistan's ability to monetise its oil resources could accelerate its departure from the federation by giving the region a more solid economic basis on which to build an independent future.
The bad news is that the tools of Kurdish freedom have also strengthened the hand of foreign investors and opened a breach in the commercial defences of the wider Gulf.
tashby@thenational.ae
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MATCH INFO
England 241-3 (20 ovs)
Malan 130 no, Morgan 91
New Zealand 165 all out (16.5ovs)
Southee 39, Parkinson 4-47
England win by 76 runs
Series level at 2-2
And%20Just%20Like%20That...
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THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Jawan
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
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MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The five pillars of Islam
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Lady Parma, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m
Winner: Tabernas, Connor Beasley, Ahmed bin Harmash.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m
Winner: Night Castle, Connor Beasley, Satish Seemar.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m
Winner: Mystique Moon, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Mutawakked, Szczepan Mazur, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m
Winner: Tafaakhor, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m
Winner: Cranesbill, Fabrice Veron, Erwan Charpy.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
2017%20RESULTS%3A%20FRENCH%20VOTERS%20IN%20UK
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TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5