Iraq, UAE and Saudi Arabia take bigger slice of US crude market, EIA says



Opec was the big market share winner as US crude oil imports rose in the first half of the year and for the first time since 2010.

The US government’s Energy Information Agency reported that overall imports rose by 7 per cent, or 528,000 barrels per day, up to June, with Nigeria and Iraq taking the largest share of the increase.

The EIA also reported that commercial crude oil stockpiles fell sharply last week, which helped propel oil prices higher yesterday, with world benchmark North Sea Brent gaining about 50 cents to an intraday high of US$52.32, up about 14 per cent since last week when Opec said it would try to reach a deal by the end of November to curb output.

“This increase reverses a multiyear trend of decreasing crude oil imports as a result of increasing US production,” the EIA said in its latest report on the industry.

Imports from Nigeria, Iraq and other members of Opec rose by 504,000 bpd, while imports from neighbouring Mexico fell by 118,000 bpd. But the higher imports have mostly displaced US domestic production, particularly from the shale oil sector, which fell to about 8.5 million bpd last month from a peak last summer of 9.6 million bpd.

The main factor behind the US output decline has been the collapse in oil price, in which Brent crude fell from about $115 a barrel in late 2014 to as low as $29 a barrel earlier this year – a 74 per cent fall – making a large number of shale producers unprofitable.

But the EIA also attributed the rising imports partly to changes in US law, which allowed domestic producers to export oil for the first time in 40 years.

“The narrowing differences between certain US crudes [prices] and international benchmarks provided an incentive for increased imports by refiners in areas where imported crudes now had a delivered cost advantage relative to domestic crudes of comparable quality,” the EIA said.

The Nigerian crude mostly went to refiners on the US east coast, such as the big refining hub in New Jersey, where ExxonMobil and others have large plants. That helped reverse a trend whereby US imports of Nigerian crude had fallen to 7,000 bpd during the first half of last year from more than 1 million bpd in 2010. Imports have risen in the first six months of this year to 186,000 bpd.

Imports from the Arabian Gulf have increased by 47 per cent over the last year, to 1.8 million bpd in July from a low last August of 1.2 million bpd, with the biggest increase from Iraq, followed by Saudi Arabia. The UAE exports most of its crude to Asia but it increased oil exports to the US this year by about 1 million barrels up to July, to 2.2 million barrels.

amcauley@thenational.ae

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”