Analysts have noted that Opec's meeting on Friday could be its most politically fraught-ever. Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg
Analysts have noted that Opec's meeting on Friday could be its most politically fraught-ever. Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg

An Opec+ output increase could drag down oil prices by $3 to $5 per barrel, says MUFG



Opec could look at increasing production in similar weighted proportions to the ongoing curbs at the grouping’s meeting in Vienna on Friday, prompting a decline in oil prices by $3 to $5 per barrel, in the third quarter of 2018, according to the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (MUFG).

“Saudi Arabia had taken 486,000 barrels off the market. If you divide that by the overall production cut, that’s a 20, 25 per cent weighting on the increase,” said Ehsan Khoman, research head and Mena strategist at MUFG in a media briefing.

“Our expectation is that the same weighting for the production cuts will be used for the production increases,” he added.

Opec+, as the grouping compliant with production cuts to bolster prices of oil are known, are meeting in Vienna to revise the agreement to slash 1.8 million barrels per day. A higher oil price environment, which saw Brent at $80 per barrel and oil inventories at a five-year low, as well as behind-the-scenes pressure by the US Trump administration is likely to sway the group to increase production to steady prices. MUFG has cited the possibility of a gradual increase of 350,000 to 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) at 55 per cent, which it anticipates will lead to a bearish impact on prices, which could decline by $3 to $5 per barrel in the third quarter of this year.

Opec+ anticipates a tense meeting, with members Iran and Iraq openly voicing concerns about production increases, which could hurt the price at which they sell oil in global markets, at a time of deep necessity for both economies. Iraq, which looks at a capacity of 6.5 million barrels per day by 2021 needs healthy oil revenues to rebuild the country post-Isis, while Iran needs steadier prices to sell more barrels before US sanctions kick in later this year.

MUFG, however, anticipates a scenario of “calmer heads” prevailing in a politically fraught meeting, ahead of which rumours circulated that Saudi Arabia may have relented to US pressures to lower prices to appease an electorate preparing for mid-terms as well as peak driving season demand.

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Read more:

Opec's Vienna meet could prove bullish for oil markets, say analysts
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“Our view is that calmer heads will prevail from Iraq and Iran as well as from Venezuela, Libya and Nigeria. They would want to show and demonstrate the capacity and capability of Opec as an organisation and to have two different communiqués come out of this meet will show weakness and that could potentially lead to significant downsizes in oil prices,” said Mr Khoman.

The meeting will be far from the smoother consensus Opec+ had arrived at in recent months, with some members such as Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh saying outright that he doesn’t “believe in this meeting we can reach an agreement”, ahead of the summit.

Opec, which counts for one-third of the world's oil production with a mandate to efficiently manage demand and supply of the resource would likely distance itself from being seen as an organisation coming under the influence of any political entity, noted Mr Khoman.

“Two-thirds [of global production] is out of Opec’s hands and for the members to adhere to what any politician around the world is saying goes against the mandate of its own statutes,” he said.

Should Opec fail to reach consensus, which MUFG has pegged a probability of 5 per cent, oil prices could prove bullish and rise by $5 to $10 in the third quarter of this year.

German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

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Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

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Guide to intelligent investing
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57kg quarter-finals

Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) beat Hamed Al Matari (YEM) by points 3-0.

60kg quarter-finals

Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) RSC round 2.

63.5kg quarter-finals

Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Shamlan A Othman (KUW) by points 3-0.

67kg quarter-finals

Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Ahmad Ondash (LBN) by points 2-1.

71kg quarter-finals

Ahmad Bahman (UAE) defeated Lalthasanga Lelhchhun (IND) by points 3-0.

Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Seyed Kaveh Safakhaneh (IRI) by points 3-0.

81kg quarter-finals

Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Ahmad Hilal (PLE) by points 3-0

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Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
Cryopreservation: A timeline
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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The biog

Simon Nadim has completed 7,000 dives. 

The hardest dive in the UAE is the German U-boat 110m down off the Fujairah coast. 

As a child, he loved the documentaries of Jacques Cousteau

He also led a team that discovered the long-lost portion of the Ines oil tanker. 

If you are interested in diving, he runs the XR Hub Dive Centre in Fujairah

 

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Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first

Kerala Knights 103-7 (10 ov)

Parnell 59 not out; Tambe 5-15

Sindhis 104-1 (7.4 ov)

Watson 50 not out, Devcich 49

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
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More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
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