From trade wars to Brexit talks, here are the answers to the key questions for the world economy in 2019.
Will the global economy slump?
No. For sure, financial markets are skittish, central banks are turning away from easy money and there is a trade war under way. But the International Monetary Fund still forecasts a third year of growth around 3.7 per cent, and even if the world falls short of that it’s still set for a fairly decent expansion. Ballast should come from monetary policy staying historically loose, governments easing fiscal policy and tight labor markets.
What Bloomberg Economists say: 2018 started with strong, coordinated global growth. 2019 will not. The world economy will expand at a slower pace, and with a marked divergence between the US and the rest. Heightened financial market volatility and shrinking export orders flag that the peak of the cycle is past. They are not an indicator of impending recession.
Will the trade war escalate or fade?
This is arguably the biggest question confronting the global economy in 2019. And the fact there is no clear answer ought to be reason to worry. The tentative truce between President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping is encouraging in the short term. Nervy financial markets and concerns over the moderating of both economies have been pushing the two leaders in the direction of a deal. Then again, even with a grand bargain, the majority of the US tariffs on $250 billion in imports from China will remain in place through 2019. As will the threat of more to come if China doesn’t deliver meaningful reforms. Likewise, there are likely to be more ups and downs in relations through the year. There will be more tweets from Mr Trump and invocations of China’s history of standing up to foreign pressure from Mr Xi. The trade wars are becoming a permanent feature of relations between the world’s two largest economies.
What Bloomberg economists say: The trade truce between the US and China will hold. China won’t deliver the deep structural reforms US hawks are demanding. It will do enough for the US to claim a win and kick more protectionist measures further down the road. Even in that optimistic scenario, the front-loading of exports in 2018 will reduce shipments in 2019.
Will the Federal Reserve pause hiking interest rates?
The Fed projects two rate increases in 2019 and another move in 2020, based on a confident outlook of continuing solid growth. Investors think that optimism misses underlying economic weakness. Fear the Fed will tighten too far has triggered steep losses in US stocks. Also expect more Twitter pressure from Mr Trump on Chairman Jerome Powell if monetary policy keeps getting tightened.
What Bloomberg economists say: The recent tightening in financial conditions and cooling global growth will not be enough to cause the Fed to pause rate hikes in 2019. While the economy is expected to moderate, growth will remain above its long-run trend and a strong 2018 suggests that some additional inflationary pressures may be in the pipeline. This argues for a few more rate hikes to ensure that inflation does not unexpectedly rise.
Can China control its slowdown without massive stimulus?
It’s going to be a close-run thing, though the first quarter should provide a strong signal. By then, the extent of the negative impact of the trade war on exports should become clearer as the effect of ‘‘front-loading’’ of shipments begins to wane. Progress, or otherwise, in trade negotiations between China and the US ought to become evident as a March 1 deadline approaches. Policy makers are showing every sign of wanting to continue with targeted, limited stimulus measures. A lot rests on the consumer though. Retail sales growth ended 2018 near the slowest pace in over a decade, suggesting that rising household debt coupled with cost-of-living surges in the biggest cities is really beginning to bite. It may take a more explicit pro-growth strategy from the government to break that negative cycle.
What Bloomberg economists say: China can probably achieve a gradual deceleration in growth, but the path the trade war takes is pivotal for the growth composition. Less pressures on exports in the scenario of easing trade tensions would give policy makers more room to respond in a measured way that entails less reliance on investment-driven economic stabilization -- a positive for long-term growth. Yet in a scenario of intensified trade tensions, policy makers would probably shift to strong stimulus, particularly if combined effects of external and domestic demand pressures lead to widespread unemployment and corporate distress.
Will there be a Brexit deal?
The probability has increased of a no-deal Brexit which the Bank of England says could have catastrophic consequences for the economy. While most economists still expect disaster to be avoided, even that won’t clear the way for gangbusters growth. With retailers struggling, house price growth slowing and inflation still above the BOE’s target, the expansion is expected to remain at best subdued and well below the pace seen before 2016’s referendum.
What Bloomberg economists say: Among all the Brexit noise, one clear message has emerged: a majority of UK lawmakers are against a no-deal outcome. That leaves us quietly confident that a pact between the UK and EU will emerge next year. For the economy, the news would likely deliver a cyclical boost as more certainty, looser fiscal policy and faster real-income growth all help to raise gross domestic product growth to close to 2 per cent.
Will Emerging Markets Suffer a Fresh Crisis?
Emerging markets at least have a more dovish Fed and softer oil prices to offer calm in 2019, and market analysts are on their side: EM assets are forecast to make a comeback in 2019, following their worst year in three, according to a Bloomberg survey of 30 investors, traders and strategists. Morgan Stanley even says such economies will return to drive world growth. Yet pockets of stress still risk explosion. Argentina and Turkey always face political risks, while South Korea is ridden with debt and Russia could be slapped by fresh US sanctions. South Africa is dealing with a wobbly economy and election uncertainty. Latin American currencies, such as the Mexican, Colombian and Argentine peso, remain vulnerable as questions linger over the ability of governments to control spending.
What Bloomberg economists say: Uncertainty about Fed tightening, trade and oil prices will spill into the new year. A slowdown in global growth could fuel further risk for emerging markets. But the next crisis is likely to start closer to home, with politics delivering the spark.
Will the ECB get to hike interest rates?
It depends on whom you ask. The European Central Bank says euro-zone interest rates will be kept at record lows “at least through the summer of 2019,” implying that the liftoff could come late in the year. Economists share the ECB’s analysis that domestically driven growth is solid despite recent weak data, and predict the first increase in September. Investors take a different view. They’re concerned the single currency area is on the verge of a more protracted slowdown amid trade tensions and political instability. They’re pricing a move around April 2020, by which time it will be the job of President Mario Draghi’s successor.
What Bloomberg economists say: Definitely, if the outlook unfolds as Mr Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank expect. Growth of 0.5 per cent a quarter for much of next year and solid gains in pay would mean there is little reason to delay. Our own forecasts see growth settling at 0.4 per cent a quarter -- that suggests a hike to the deposit rate will still come in 2019, but a little later.
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Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
WORLD RECORD FEES FOR GOALKEEPERS
1) Kepa Arrizabalaga, Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea (£72m)
2) Alisson, Roma to Liverpool (£67m)
3) Ederson, Benfica to Manchester City (£35m)
4) Gianluigi Buffon, Parma to Juventus (£33m)
5) Angelo Peruzzi, Inter Milan to Lazio (£15.7m
A Dog's Journey
Directed by: Gail Mancuso
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Josh Gad, Marg Helgenberger, Betty Gilpin, Kathryn Prescott
3 out of 5 stars
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Fines for littering
In Dubai:
Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro
Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle.
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle
In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches
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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
Company%20profile
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The 12 breakaway clubs
England
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur
Italy
AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus
Spain
Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20and%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20700hp%20at%207%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20720Nm%20at%202%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330kph%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1.14%20million%20(%24311%2C000)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
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