Companies in Britain and the European Union face an extra £58 billion in annual costs if there is a no-deal Brexit, with Britain’s vast financial sector set to be the worst-hit industry, according to a report on Monday.
Firms across the EU’s 27 countries other than Britain will have to pay £31bn a year in tariff and non-tariff barriers if Britain leaves the bloc without a deal, the report by Oliver Wyman management consultants and law firm Clifford Chance said.
In return, British exporters to the EU will have to pay £27bn a year.
“These increased costs and uncertainty threaten to reduce profitability and pose existential threats to some businesses,” the report said.
Britain is due to leave the EU next year after voting in favour of ending more than four decades of political, economic and legal ties with the world’s largest trading bloc.
In the absence of an agreement, trade between Britain and the other 27 EU members would default to World Trade Organisation rules and tariffs, a sharp contrast to the access the UK has enjoyed as a member of the EU’s single market.
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Although Britain wants a deal, the government says it is preparing for any outcome, including the chance that Britain could crash out of the bloc without a deal. It has set aside £3bn pounds to prepare for all eventualities.
If Britain stays in a form of a customs union it would reduce the costs for both sides by about half, the report said.
However, Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out keeping Britain in an EU customs union because it would prevent the country from striking its own trade deals with fast-growing economies such as China and India.
Monday’s report showed 70 per cent of the extra costs in Britain from a no-deal Brexit would be shared by five industries: financial services, cars, agriculture and food and drink, consumer goods and chemicals and plastics.
Financial services firms in Britain would suffer the biggest hit because, unlike some automotive and aerospace firms that can switch to domestic suppliers of components, they will have to set up new operations in the EU to continue serving clients.
Goldman Sachs and UBS said last week they were starting to transfer some bankers to Frankfurt in preparation for Britain’s exit from the EU.
The Bank of England has warned that about 10,000 finance jobs may leave Britain by the end of next year because of Brexit.
However, top US investment banks are currently planning to hire far more people in London than anywhere else in Europe.
In the EU, the hardest hit sector would be the automotive sector, agriculture and food and drinks, chemicals and plastics, consumer goods and industrials, the report said.
Day 5, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day When Dilruwan Perera dismissed Yasir Shah to end Pakistan’s limp resistance, the Sri Lankans charged around the field with the fevered delirium of a side not used to winning. Trouble was, they had not. The delivery was deemed a no ball. Sri Lanka had a nervy wait, but it was merely a stay of execution for the beleaguered hosts.
Stat of the day – 5 Pakistan have lost all 10 wickets on the fifth day of a Test five times since the start of 2016. It is an alarming departure for a side who had apparently erased regular collapses from their resume. “The only thing I can say, it’s not a mitigating excuse at all, but that’s a young batting line up, obviously trying to find their way,” said Mickey Arthur, Pakistan’s coach.
The verdict Test matches in the UAE are known for speeding up on the last two days, but this was extreme. The first two innings of this Test took 11 sessions to complete. The remaining two were done in less than four. The nature of Pakistan’s capitulation at the end showed just how difficult the transition is going to be in the post Misbah-ul-Haq era.
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Fresh faces in UAE side
Khalifa Mubarak (24) An accomplished centre-back, the Al Nasr defender’s progress has been hampered in the past by injury. With not many options in central defence, he would bolster what can be a problem area.
Ali Salmeen (22) Has been superb at the heart of Al Wasl’s midfield these past two seasons, with the Dubai club flourishing under manager Rodolfo Arrubarrena. Would add workrate and composure to the centre of the park.
Mohammed Jamal (23) Enjoyed a stellar 2016/17 Arabian Gulf League campaign, proving integral to Al Jazira as the capital club sealed the championship for only a second time. A tenacious and disciplined central midfielder.
Khalfan Mubarak (22) One of the most exciting players in the UAE, the Al Jazira playmaker has been likened in style to Omar Abdulrahman. Has minimal international experience already, but there should be much more to come.
Jassim Yaqoub (20) Another incredibly exciting prospect, the Al Nasr winger is becoming a regular contributor at club level. Pacey, direct and with an eye for goal, he would provide the team’s attack an extra dimension.
