British consumers are set for a rough year in 2018, as the knock-on effects of the Brexit vote continue to push prices up for everyday products from bread to televisions.
"At the moment where Brexit sits, it's probable that sterling will go down further, so import costs are going to continue going up," Jonathan De Mello, a retail analyst at Harper Dennis Hobbs, tells The National.
“That means prices for consumers will inevitably rise.”
Inflation surged following the EU referendum in June 2016 as the collapse in the pound ramped up the cost of goods imported into Britain.
The UK Consumer Price Index inflation rate – the key measure of inflation – was 3.1 per cent in November, the highest in almost six years.
At the same time, average weekly wages are growing at just 2.3 per cent, according to the latest data from the office for national statistics, resulting in a “squeeze” on household incomes.
Unfortunately for consumers, price hikes will be reflected in the high street, says Mr De Mello. “Businesses will have no choice but to pass on the higher costs to shoppers.”
Seeking to combat inflation rising far above its 2 per cent target, the Bank of England raised interest rates in November for the first time in 10 years.
The central bank hinted that the quarter-point increase, which reversed an emergency rate cut implemented after the shock Brexit vote, could be the first of several.
Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotia Bank, tells The National that the market is priced for "one-and-a-bit" rate hikes this year. "I'm in a minority looking for two hikes – in May, and again in November," he adds.
In a report this month, the credit card firm Visa warned that a full recovery in consumer spending is unlikely in 2018.
Visa’s consumer spending index fell by 1 per cent annually in December, rounding off the worst year for UK spending since 2012.
__________
Read more:
UK growth to remain weak in 2018 as Brexit uncertainty weighs
Fall in UK Christmas spending caps off worst year since 2012, finds Visa survey
__________
High street retailers such as Marks & Spencer, Debenhams and House of Fraser have all reported sluggish trading over the crucial Christmas season and warned of difficult conditions this year, as higher prices and Brexit uncertainty lead households to tighten their purse strings.
Policymakers have insisted that Brexit-fuelled inflation is “close to its peak” and will begin to ease back towards its target in the “medium term”.
A recovery in sterling could help to ease inflation, but that very much depends on how the Brexit talks pan out.
The pound has been whipsawed by headlines surrounding the status of the UK’s eventual exit from the EU. Having plunged from US$1.50 to a low of $1.33 after the Brexit vote, and further still to $1.19 in January last year, it has bounced back recently, helped by the EU green-lighting the start of trade talks.
Mr De Mello argues that this will be short lived. “As soon as the Brexit talks resume, sterling is likely to go lower again,” he says.
Ken Odeluga, a market analyst at the financial forecasting firm City Index, says that a hard Brexit, where the UK relinquishes full access to the EU single market and the customs union, remains one of the biggest risks to the outlook for sterling in 2018.
“There’s a lot that could go wrong with the economy and with the process of Brexit,” he says. “There is definitely scope for that to deteriorate further and weigh on the currency.”
Recent consumer confidence data suggests the British public is in no mood to spend.
The market research institute GfK's measure of consumer morale hit a four-year-low in December, as Brexit-battered households took a gloomier view of their personal finances.
"I think consumer confidence will stay pretty fragile this year," Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, tells The National.
There is, however, a silver lining for retailers, as it appears that pessimistic “Remainers” are skewing surveys on willingness to spend.
A Bank of England study this month found that people who voted Remain were much more likely to give a pessimistic view of their personal finances after the Brexit vote than before.
Recent weak data could, therefore, reflect people’s dislike of the Brexit process, rather than a genuine drop in consumer confidence.
Given Leave voters – who are, after all, the majority of those who cast a ballot in the referendum – appear to have a fairly optimistic attitude to spending, retailers might find reason for cheer after all in 2018.
ON TRACK
The Dubai Metaverse Assembly will host three main tracks:
Educate: Consists of more than 10 in-depth sessions on the metaverse
Inspire: Will showcase use cases of the metaverse in tourism, logistics, retail, education and health care
Contribute: Workshops for metaverse foresight and use-case reviews
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Klipit
Started: 2022
Founders: Venkat Reddy, Mohammed Al Bulooki, Bilal Merchant, Asif Ahmed, Ovais Merchant
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Digital receipts, finance, blockchain
Funding: $4 million
Investors: Privately/self-funded
A QUIET PLACE
Starring: Lupita Nyong'o, Joseph Quinn, Djimon Hounsou
Director: Michael Sarnoski
Rating: 4/5
Bridgerton season three - part one
Directors: Various
Starring: Nicola Coughlan, Luke Newton, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 3/5
SHAITTAN
Director: Vikas Bahl
Starring: Ajay Devgn, R. Madhavan, Jyothika, Janaki Bodiwala
Rating: 3/5
'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
Stage 3 results
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 4:42:33
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:03
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:30
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Diego Ulissi (ITA) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:56
General Classification after Stage 3:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 12:30:02
2 Tadej Pocagar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana 0:01:35
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5 Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
6 Wilco Kelderman (NED) Team Sunweb) 0:02:06
SPEC SHEET: APPLE M3 MACBOOK AIR (13")
Processor: Apple M3, 8-core CPU, up to 10-core CPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Display: 13.6-inch Liquid Retina, 2560 x 1664, 224ppi, 500 nits, True Tone, wide colour
Memory: 8/16/24GB
Storage: 256/512GB / 1/2TB
I/O: Thunderbolt 3/USB-4 (2), 3.5mm audio, Touch ID
Connectivity: Wi-Fi 6E, Bluetooth 5.3
Battery: 52.6Wh lithium-polymer, up to 18 hours, MagSafe charging
Camera: 1080p FaceTime HD
Video: Support for Apple ProRes, HDR with Dolby Vision, HDR10
Audio: 4-speaker system, wide stereo, support for Dolby Atmos, Spatial Audio and dynamic head tracking (with AirPods)
Colours: Midnight, silver, space grey, starlight
In the box: MacBook Air, 30W/35W dual-port/70w power adapter, USB-C-to-MagSafe cable, 2 Apple stickers
Price: From Dh4,599
EMIRATES'S REVISED A350 DEPLOYMENT SCHEDULE
Edinburgh: November 4 (unchanged)
Bahrain: November 15 (from September 15); second daily service from January 1
Kuwait: November 15 (from September 16)
Mumbai: January 1 (from October 27)
Ahmedabad: January 1 (from October 27)
Colombo: January 2 (from January 1)
Muscat: March 1 (from December 1)
Lyon: March 1 (from December 1)
Bologna: March 1 (from December 1)
Source: Emirates
Company profile
Name: Khodar
Based: Cairo and Alexandria, in Egypt
Founders: Ayman Hamza, Yasser Eidrous and Amr El Sheikh
Sector: agriculture technology
Funding: $500,000
Investors: Saudi Arabia’s Revival Lab and others
Employees: 35
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Signs of heat stroke
- The loss of sodium chloride in our sweat can lead to confusion and an altered mental status and slurred speech
- Body temperature above 39°C
- Hot, dry and red or damp skin can indicate heatstroke
- A faster pulse than usual
- Dizziness, nausea and headaches are also signs of overheating
- In extreme cases, victims can lose consciousness and require immediate medical attention
MORE ON IRAN'S PROXY WARS
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Dolittle
Director: Stephen Gaghan
Stars: Robert Downey Jr, Michael Sheen
One-and-a-half out of five stars
BACK TO ALEXANDRIA
Director: Tamer Ruggli
Starring: Nadine Labaki, Fanny Ardant
Rating: 3.5/5
Company Profile
Company name: Hoopla
Date started: March 2023
Founder: Jacqueline Perrottet
Based: Dubai
Number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Investment required: $500,000
Day 2, stumps
Pakistan 482
Australia 30/0 (13 ov)
Australia trail by 452 runs with 10 wickets remaining in the innings
UAE athletes heading to Paris 2024
Equestrian
Abdullah Humaid Al Muhairi, Abdullah Al Marri, Omar Al Marzooqi, Salem Al Suwaidi, and Ali Al Karbi (four to be selected).
Judo
Men: Narmandakh Bayanmunkh (66kg), Nugzari Tatalashvili (81kg), Aram Grigorian (90kg), Dzhafar Kostoev (100kg), Magomedomar Magomedomarov (+100kg); women's Khorloodoi Bishrelt (52kg).
Cycling
Safia Al Sayegh (women's road race).
Swimming
Men: Yousef Rashid Al Matroushi (100m freestyle); women: Maha Abdullah Al Shehi (200m freestyle).
Athletics
Maryam Mohammed Al Farsi (women's 100 metres).
The specs
Engine: Single front-axle electric motor
Power: 218hp
Torque: 330Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 402km (claimed)
Price: From Dh215,000 (estimate)
On sale: September
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Company profile
Company name: Xare
Started: January 18, 2021
Founders: Padmini Gupta, Milind Singh, Mandeep Singh
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Funds Raised: $10 million
Current number of staff: 28
Investment stage: undisclosed
Investors: MS&AD Ventures, Middle East Venture Partners, Astra Amco, the Dubai International Financial Centre, Fintech Fund, 500 Startups, Khwarizmi Ventures, and Phoenician Funds