Bill Gates on Covid-19: Behaviour can change in a 'significant way' by late spring or summer

Behavioural changes in place to stave off the Covid-19 outbreak could change by "late spring or summer" following widespread vaccination efforts in the developed world, according to Bill Gates.

Countries around the world have imposed movement restrictions, placed a cap on large gatherings and made measures such as wearing face masks and sanitisation mandatory to stem the spread of the virus

The billionaire founder of Microsoft, who now focuses on healthcare through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, spoke about the impact of inoculation to contain Covid-19 in an interview on social media app Clubhouse.

“It’s only by late spring or summer that we’re going to get to numbers where you can look at changing your behaviour in a significant way,” Mr Gates said.

More than 231 million doses of Covid-19 have been delivered worldwide, with more than 70 million jabs distributed in the US, the country with the highest number of Covid-19 infections.

Mr Gates, who has been a vocal proponent for adopting preventive measures such as face masks, has received a two doses of the jab but said the vaccination does not stop transmission of the virus.

He urged those who have been vaccinated against the coronavirus to continue wearing personal protective equipment and adhere to social distancing rules to stop the spread.

Globally, the number of infections rose above 114 million as of Saturday, according to Worldometer, which tracks the pandemic. The US accounts for more than a quarter of all infections.

Regulators have so far approved vaccines developed by the Pfizer/BioNTech collaboration, Moderna, AstraZeneca/Oxford, Novavax, Sinovac Biotech, Gamaleya, CanSino Biologics, Sinopharm and more recently, Johnson & Johnson.

However, new and more virulent strains of the pathogen that mutated in the UK, South Africa and Brazil are now adding to the concerns of vaccine makers.

Israel has had the most success in the vaccination programme, with 36.4 per cent of the population vaccinated so far, according to a Bloomberg tracker.

The new administration of Joe Biden has promised to deliver vaccines to 100 million people within the first 100 days of his office.

Pharaoh's curse

British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Dust and sand storms compared

Sand storm

Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
Travel distance: Limited
Source: Open desert areas with strong winds

Dust storm

Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
Duration: Can linger for days
Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
Source: Can be carried from distant regions

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