Federal Reserve officials favour gradual approach to cutting interest rates, minutes show

US central bankers note uncertainty around neutral rate

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell. AP

US Federal Reserve officials agreed on the need to continue cutting interest rates, but only at a gradual level owing to the volatility in economic data, minutes released from the November meeting showed on Tuesday.

"In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated … it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time," the minutes read.

The minutes showed that “many” participants on the 12-member rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee noted the volatility of economic data that made it difficult to identify trends in the outlook. Fed officials also noted the uncertainties around the level of the neutral rate, which is the point at which interest rates neither expand nor contract economic growth.

“Participants noted that monetary policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, and the implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks,” the minutes read.

Fed officials during the meeting also stressed the importance of the FOMC “to make this clear as it adjusted its policy stance”.

“Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually,” the minutes read.

The uncertainty over the neutral rate also makes it difficult to assess how restrictive the Fed's current policy is, according to the minutes.

“This feeds into the Fed’s cautious approach towards future rate cuts as the equilibrium-fed funds rate is difficult to estimate in real time, and the central bank may not know if it has reached it until it has done too much,” Oxford Economics chief correspondent Ryan Sweet wrote in a note.

The Federal Reserve this month cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50 to 4.75 per cent. That followed an initial interest rate cut by 50 basis points.

Since then, Fed officials have generally advocated for a gradual approach to returning to the neutral rate.

“Nothing in the economic data suggests that the Committee has any need to be in a hurry to get there,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell told reporters on November 7.

The Fed began its easing cycle in September after economic data showed inflation was decreasing towards its 2 per cent target, leading the Fed to move focus to protecting the US jobs market. The nation's unemployment rate remains low at 4.1 per cent.

Officials now see the central bank's dual risks – price stability and full employment – to be about in balance, which they say allows them to take a gradual approach in cutting rates.

Most investors still anticipate the Fed to cut interest rates again by 25 basis points in December, although now at a smaller margin than one month ago, according to CME Group data. The Fed is also due to release its updated economic projections at the end of its December 17-18 meeting.

Tuesday's minutes showed that officials avoided discussions about the 2024 presidential election, which was held two days before the central bank's rate decision.