Apple's image took a beating over reports of poor working conditions in China. Imaginechina
Apple's image took a beating over reports of poor working conditions in China. Imaginechina

Economic heavyweight China hopes for a soft landing



The economic downturn, the Bo Xilai scandal and the leadership switch from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping made 2012 one of China's most eventful years in recent memory.
It was a roller-coaster year when everyone wondered if the second-largest economy would have a hard or a soft landing, and what that would all mean for the global economy in a world increasingly reliant on China.
The changing of the guard among the leadership elite was a smooth process, even if it took place against a turbulent backdrop of a slowing economy and the purging of the disgraced former rising star of the Communist Party, Mr Bo.
Mr Xi's arrival has prompted widespread speculation about what it will mean for China's direction. Early indicators are that reform is on the cards, but we shall have to wait and see.
With this in mind, one of the most significant events in China took place in the dying weeks and went largely under the international radar, when Mr Xi visited the southern province of Guangdong.
Ho-fung Hung, the associate professor of sociology at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, believes economic reform is on the cards, but this will be politically tricky.
"Xi Jinping's recent visit to Guangdong province, following in the footsteps of Deng Xiaoping's 1992 southern tour, as well as the new leader's statement of accelerating urbanisation, seems to signal he is trying to boost the economy through further economic liberalisation," he said.
"It may work, but it will also aggravate the rivalry between different camps of the party - and meet resistance from vested interests as well as the left that have been favouring state capitalism and are adverse to further marketisation of the economy," Mr Hung said.
A notable event during the year was the way in which China's economy looked inward, as it tried to cool an overheating property market and develop a domestic economy, with local demand replacing lost overseas markets as Europe and the United States continued to underwhelm. Results were mixed, again, but there is a lot of bullishness around right now for the Chinese economy in 2013.
China's economic weight within the global context is firmly established. Its GDP stands at US$7.3 trillion (Dh26.8tn), which is five times more than 10 years ago, putting it second behind the US, whereas 10 years ago it trailed America, Japan, Germany, Britain and France in sixth place.
In November, Mr Xi was appointed the general secretary of the Communist Party of China and the chairman of the party's military commission, giving him a powerful mandate to rule the world's most populous country for the next decade.
The final year in power for president Hu and the premier Wen Jiabao did not yield much in terms of much-mooted economic reform. It was the swansong for a period of spectacular growth and wealth creation but by the end of the year the economy had faltered, hitting a three-year low of 7.4 per cent growth in the third quarter.
That figure represented a seventh consecutive quarter of slowing growth. On the positive side, official data in the latter months of 2012 showed a recovery in fixed asset investment, industrial activity, retail sales and manufacturing activity.
It was also a year of unanswered questions. What really happened with Mr Bo, the one-time rising star and Mr Xi's fellow princeling, who was comprehensively purged and had his power base shattered? And where did Mr Xi go to during the fortnight he went missing in September? Speculation ranged from an assassination attempt to a bad back. The complete lack of information highlighted how despite the widescale changes and advances, China still has strong Cold War-era traits.
China's growth miracle was built on the export market and that slowed dramatically as the euro zone struggled and the US remained sluggish.
As the year came to a close, there was consensus about the need to restructure the economy to boost the domestic market, including opening up the state-owned enterprises and small and medium-sized companies to advance.
If there was one foreign company that loomed large in China, surely it was Apple.
The year began with a riot as angry shoppers threw eggs at the company's flagship store in Beijing and jostled with police after being told that the shop would not begin selling the iPhone 4S because of concerns about the size of the crowd. Apple said it would stop retail sales of the latest iPhone in China for the time being, but said the phones would be available online, through its partner carrier China Unicom or at official Apple resellers.
The riot coincided with news that the economy had expanded at its slowest pace in two and a half years as export demand flagged and government efforts to stop runaway property prices and ease inflation took their toll on growth.
Apple was still in the news in February amid negative PR over reports of poor working conditions for workers making iPhones and other Apple products.
Companies in the state sector remained shielded from meaningful competition, which meant they failed to generate as many jobs as other economies at a similar stage of development.
China's supply of cheap labour, which once looked inexhaustible, is fast disappearing, as is the country's cost advantage.
One of the darkest chapters of China's year was the way in which relations with Japan reached probably their lowest ebb since the end of the Second World War. Demonstrators took to the streets across China, smashing sushi bars and Nissan cars to show their anger over Tokyo's purchase of islands claimed by Beijing. Fearful Japanese residents stayed indoors while shops, restaurants and factories were closed.
The row over the uninhabited group of islands in the East China Sea - known as the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China - ratcheted up tensions in the region and had a powerful effect on trade between Asia's two biggest economies. China is Japan's largest trading partner, and Japan is China's third largest.
Amid the tumult, one familiar problem grew only worse.
The gap between rich and poor worsened, reaching its widest in the post-reform era. The richest 10 per cent of households in China own 85 per cent of its wealth, according to a recent survey, more than the 75 per cent of wealth held by the richest tenth of households in the US.
business@thenational.ae

The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK 

Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV

ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand

UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final

If you go...

Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.

Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50

Racecard
%3Cp%3E8.30pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Maiden%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%201%2C200m%3Cbr%3E9pm%3A%20Yas%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3E9.30pm%3A%20Saadiyat%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3E10pm%3A%20Reem%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3E10.30pm%3A%20Arabian%20Triple%20Crown%20Round%203%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(PA)%20Dh300%2C000%20(T)%202%2C400m%3Cbr%3E11pm%3A%20Al%20Maryah%20Island%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(TB)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures

October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA

Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

TEST SQUADS

Bangladesh: Mushfiqur Rahim (captain), Tamim Iqbal, Soumya Sarkar, Imrul Kayes, Liton Das, Shakib Al Hasan, Mominul Haque, Nasir Hossain, Sabbir Rahman, Mehedi Hasan, Shafiul Islam, Taijul Islam, Mustafizur Rahman and Taskin Ahmed.

Australia: Steve Smith (captain), David Warner, Ashton Agar, Hilton Cartwright, Pat Cummins, Peter Handscomb, Matthew Wade, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Glenn Maxwell, Matt Renshaw, Mitchell Swepson and Jackson Bird.

Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)

Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits

Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine

Storage: 128/256/512GB

Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4

Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps

Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID

Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight

In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter

Price: From Dh2,099

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GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

Countries offering golden visas

UK
Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.

Germany
Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.

Italy
The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.

Switzerland
Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.

Canada
Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence. 

hall of shame

SUNDERLAND 2002-03

No one has ended a Premier League season quite like Sunderland. They lost each of their final 15 games, taking no points after January. They ended up with 19 in total, sacking managers Peter Reid and Howard Wilkinson and losing 3-1 to Charlton when they scored three own goals in eight minutes.

SUNDERLAND 2005-06

Until Derby came along, Sunderland’s total of 15 points was the Premier League’s record low. They made it until May and their final home game before winning at the Stadium of Light while they lost a joint record 29 of their 38 league games.

HUDDERSFIELD 2018-19

Joined Derby as the only team to be relegated in March. No striker scored until January, while only two players got more assists than goalkeeper Jonas Lossl. The mid-season appointment Jan Siewert was to end his time as Huddersfield manager with a 5.3 per cent win rate.

ASTON VILLA 2015-16

Perhaps the most inexplicably bad season, considering they signed Idrissa Gueye and Adama Traore and still only got 17 points. Villa won their first league game, but none of the next 19. They ended an abominable campaign by taking one point from the last 39 available.

FULHAM 2018-19

Terrible in different ways. Fulham’s total of 26 points is not among the lowest ever but they contrived to get relegated after spending over £100 million (Dh457m) in the transfer market. Much of it went on defenders but they only kept two clean sheets in their first 33 games.

LA LIGA: Sporting Gijon, 13 points in 1997-98.

BUNDESLIGA: Tasmania Berlin, 10 points in 1965-66

Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Yahya Al Ghassani's bio

Date of birth: April 18, 1998

Playing position: Winger

Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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England v South Africa Test series:

First Test: at Lord's, England won by 211 runs

Second Test: at Trent Bridge, South Africa won by 340 runs

Third Test: at The Oval, July 27-31

Fourth Test: at Old Trafford, August 4-8

The Settlers

Director: Louis Theroux

Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz

Rating: 5/5

Generational responses to the pandemic

Devesh Mamtani from Century Financial believes the cash-hoarding tendency of each generation is influenced by what stage of the employment cycle they are in. He offers the following insights:

Baby boomers (those born before 1964): Owing to market uncertainty and the need to survive amid competition, many in this generation are looking for options to hoard more cash and increase their overall savings/investments towards risk-free assets.

Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980): Gen X is currently in its prime working years. With their personal and family finances taking a hit, Generation X is looking at multiple options, including taking out short-term loan facilities with competitive interest rates instead of dipping into their savings account.

Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996): This market situation is giving them a valuable lesson about investing early. Many millennials who had previously not saved or invested are looking to start doing so now.