Arabian Gulf aviation industry must remain vigilant even after nixing of US tax bill



It was the biggest concern expressed by regional airline representatives at the Arab Air Carriers Organisation’s annual general meeting in Sharjah last month: a “regressive” proposal to tax foreign airlines operating in the US.

That proposal – submitted as an amendment to the US tax reform bill by senator Johnny Isakson of Georgia – was ditched over the weekend, causing international carriers, including those from the Middle East, to breathe a sigh of relief.

While this amendment has been dropped, it has shaken the Middle East aviation industry as indication of a possible change of tack by the ‘Big 3’ largest US carriers – Delta, United and American Airlines – as they continue their anti-competition campaign against Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways.

It has been a while since sensational, strongly worded press releases were issued on behalf of the US Big 3, slamming the Arabian Gulf carriers' alleged "unfair" expansion in the US , which the carriers deny. Now, we have US parliamentarians such as Senator Isakson – whose Georgia constituency is home to Delta – quietly tabling motions that, if passed, would have had a damaging impact on the Gulf, and other, airlines' international business.

Senator Isakson could not be reached for comment, but Danny Sebright, the president of the influential US-UAE Business Council, said the amendment was "an attempt by US carrier Delta to destroy competition".

If this is the case, it calls for increased vigilance on the part of all stakeholders working to prevent the Big 3 from eroding the Open Skies agreements that permit free market expansion in the US.

Mr Sebright said he was confident his council had “inoculated against” efforts by the US carriers to find a champion within Donald Trump’s administration. But he admitted there remained work to do to prevent legislative action not supported by the Trump administration from going through.

Maintaining Open Skies agreements is important not only for the sake of Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, but for the entire global aviation industry, whose passenger flows, route networks and aerospace-related trade and jobs are intrinsically linked.

The US airlines must recognise they are competing not only against their counterparts in the Gulf, but against airlines all over the world and that some of their proposals risk coming back to bite.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Golden Shoe top five (as of March 1):

Harry Kane, Tottenham, Premier League, 24 goals, 48 points
Edinson Cavani, PSG, Ligue 1, 24 goals, 48 points
Ciro Immobile, Lazio, Serie A, 23 goals, 46 points
Mohamed Salah, Liverpool, Premier League, 23 goals, 46 points
Lionel Messi, Barcelona, La Liga, 22 goals, 44 points

FIXTURES

All kick-off times UAE (+4 GMT)
Brackets denote aggregate score

Tuesday:
Roma (1) v Shakhtar Donetsk (2), 11.45pm
Manchester United (0) v Sevilla (0), 11.45pm

Wednesday:
Besiktas (0) v Bayern Munich (5), 9pm
Barcelona (1) v Chelsea (1), 11.45pm


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