Global airlines will need to buy 28,000 new aircraft worth US$4 trillion (Dh14.69tn) to meet the demand for air travel over the next 20 years, according to Airbus, the giant European planemaker.
In its latest Global Market Forecast, published yesterday, Airbus predicts the global passenger plane fleet will rise to more than 32,550 aircraft by 2031, from 15,500 today. The prediction is 1.3 per cent higher than Airbus anticipated last year.
In the same period, the world's freighter fleet will almost double from 1,600 to 3,000 aircraft.
During this time 10,350 aircraft will be replaced by new, more efficient designs.
Airbus' predictions compares with its competitor Boeing's July forecast for 34,000 planes valued at $4.5tn over the next 20 years. However, Boeing included demand for an estimated 2,020 regional jets Airbus did not count.
The Asia-Pacific area will account for 35 per cent of all new aircraft deliveries, said the Airbus survey, followed by Europe and North America with 21 per cent each. In value terms, the single biggest market will be China followed by the United States, the UAE and India.
"Aside from growth in international traffic, by 2031 four of the world's biggest traffic flows will all be domestic - in the US, China, western Europe and India," said John Leahy, the Airbus chief sales officer.
"In 20 years from now, China's domestic passenger traffic will overtake the US domestic traffic to become the number one traffic flow in our forecast. Aviation is not just essential for international commerce but also for domestic economies, too.
"Emerging economic regions will represent more than half of all traffic growth in the next 20 years," said the Airbus survey. "Increasing urbanisation and the doubling of the world's middle classes to 5 billion people is also driving growth.
By 2031 mega-cities will more than double to 92 and more than 90 per cent of the world's traffic will be between or via these points."
More than 1,700 very large aircraft with 400 seats and above, such as the A380 and the Boeing 747-8 will have been delivered by 2031, valued at $600 billion. Of these, more than 1,330 are passenger aircraft valued at some $500bn and the rest freighters.
Asia-Pacific leads demand for these high-capacity aircraft, with 46 per cent of the total, followed by the Middle East with 23 per cent and Europe at 19 per cent.
Demand for twin-aisle aircraft of 250 to 400 seats, such as the Airbus A330, the A350 XWB, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the Boeing 777 will stand at some 6,970 new passenger and freighter aircraft, valued at $1.7tn. Of these, 6,500 will be passenger aircraft. Again leading demand will be Asia-Pacific, again with 46 per cent, Europe with 17 per cent and North America with 13 per cent, the report said.
In the next 20 years, in excess of 19,500 single-aisle aircraft worth more than $1.6tn will be delivered. A third of deliveries will be in Asia-Pacific followed by North America with 25 per cent and Europe with 22 per cent. Some 30 per cent of all deliveries in this category will be for low-cost carriers.
As Airbus released its survey, Boeing announced it was raising its forecast for the Indian plane market yesterday, saying the country would need 1,450 new aircraft worth $175bn by 2031. Last year, Boeing forecast demand at 1,320 planes to 2030, worth $150bn.
"India will have the highest passenger-traffic growth in the world, higher than even China's in the next 20 years," said Dinesh Keskar, Boeing's senior vice president for Asia-Pacific and India, contradicting the Airbus prediction China's would be greater.
