BEIRUT // With the most lethal attack in Damascus in the 14-month uprising against the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, Syria has passed another threshold on the path towards full-scale civil war.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) this week said the conflict in some parts of the country already meets its definition of civil war.
The fighting has been so intense in places such as Homs and Idlib province, that the ICRC believes it qualifies as localised civil war. Thurday's car bombings that left 55 dead and hundreds wounded brought that type of violence to the capital.
Kofi Annan, the UN Arab League special envoy to Syria, had also warned that such a conflict may be inescapable if his peace plan doesn't work.
"Right now the balance of power is still with the regime, but on the ground it is going towards civil war," said Elias Hanna, a Lebanese analyst and retired general.
Thurday's bombings at a busy intersection were not the first such attack in Damascus, but it was the deadliest.
Timor Goksel, a former spokesman and adviser for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil), said such attacks would only "escalate the conflict".
"One of the main security services was targeted, which is the backbone of the government," he said. "Somebody out there is studying and deciding on targets. This is not haphazard, but well planned and seems to be better technically prepared than earlier bombings."
The last bombing to target the centre of the capital - which is still under the control of forces loyal to Mr Al Assad - was on April 27 when at least nine people were killed.
No one has claimed responsibility for Thursday's bombings. Both the government and the opposition blame each other.
Mr Hanna said the size of Thursday's explosions, the target, as well as the timing when UN ceasefire monitors are on the ground in Syria made the bombings significant.
"Damascus is the centre of gravity of the regime," he said. "If you want to execute this, you have to have the capabilities, which means whoever was behind it is a big organisation."
Violence from security forces has become the norm in some parts of the country, as anti-regime demonstrations have continued. Every day opposition groups detail regime violations of the UN-brokered ceasefire that was supposed to take effect on April 12.
More than 12,000 people, the majority of them civilians, have died since the uprising began, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. As the death toll has risen, there have been growing calls for the government to stop using violence against its people. The Syrian regime has maintained that foreign-backed terrorists are responsible for the bloodshed.
This week, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon spoke of more "innocent civilians dying, government troops ... in city streets, growing number of arrests and allegations of brutal torture". He also noted an "alarming" upsurge in the use of IEDs (improvised explosive devices) and other explosive devices.
Although the uprising began as peaceful protests, opposition to the regime has grown more militarised in the past several months. There is also concern about the presence of extremist militant groups in Syria, making the situation even murkier and further complicating the possibility of a resolution in the conflict.
Yesterday, the head of the main political opposition group, the Syrian National Council (SNC), said Thursday's suicide bombings appeared to have been carried out by Al Qaeda. Speaking during a trip to Tokyo, Burhan Ghalioun also linked the possible perpetrators to the Al Assad regime.
As the international community continues to grapple with how to deal with the Syria crisis, Mr Goksel said the country will continue to "slide towards civil war".
"But, I don't think the opposition or the state would be consciously pushing for civil war," he said. "We will see more such attacks, I'm afraid. Both sides are finding it difficult to talk to each other and in a conflict like this, a solution can only be found when the situation is ripe. The situation is not ripe yet, unfortunately."
zconstantine@thenational.ae
* With additional reports by the Associated Press
TOP 5 DRIVERS 2019
1 Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 10 wins 387 points
2 Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, 4 wins, 314 points
3 Max Verstappen, Red Bull, 3 wins, 260 points
4 Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, 2 wins, 249 points
5 Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, 1 win, 230 points
Company%20Profile
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
EA%20Sports%20FC%2024
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
No.6 Collaborations Project
Ed Sheeran (Atlantic)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
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Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
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In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
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SPECS
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Jebel Ali card
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
The National selections
1.45pm: Cosmic Glow
2.15pm: Karaginsky
2.45pm: Welcome Surprise
3.15pm: Taamol
3.45pm: Rayig
4.15pm: Chiefdom
4.45pm: California Jumbo
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Ronaldo's record at Man Utd
Seasons 2003/04 - 2008/09
Appearances 230
Goals 115
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Mica
Director: Ismael Ferroukhi
Stars: Zakaria Inan, Sabrina Ouazani
3 stars
Stan%20Lee
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The%20specs
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Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
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Roma (Mexico)
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The biog
Name: Greg Heinricks
From: Alberta, western Canada
Record fish: 56kg sailfish
Member of: International Game Fish Association
Company: Arabian Divers and Sportfishing Charters
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now