NEW DELHI // Tensions between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region could flare once US-led foreign troops leave Afghanistan next year.
Freed of the restraints imposed by America's presence in the region, militant groups based in Pakistan – and, some say, backed by the Pakistan military – will be able to turn their attention wholly to Kashmir and India.
But another piece of accepted wisdom – that Afghanistan will turn into a proxy battleground for India and Pakistan – is flawed, analysts say.
"Certainly there may be a spike in violence in Afghanistan, after the troops leave next year," said Srinath Raghavan, a senior fellow at New Delhi's Centre for Policy Research. "But the suggestions about this proxy war are absurd. What will happen is that the tensions over Kashmir will get much sharper."
Pakistan sees a window of opportunity in the coming months, Mr Raghavan said. "They may think that, in exchange for their participation in a stable political arrangement in Afghanistan, they can extract from the United States a promise to pressure India to negotiate over Kashmir."
The recent repeated infractions of the 2003 ceasefire over the Line of Control, the de facto border dividing in Indian and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, are likely to be a part of Islamabad's strategy to raise the stakes in its dispute with New Delhi over the Himalayan region, Mr Raghavan said.
This month, India accused the Pakistan army of killing five of its soldiers in a cross-border ambush. Pakistan denied this, claiming that Indian soldiers killed two civilians on its side of the border.
Troops continue to exchange sporadic gunfire across the Line of Control.
India's engagement with Afghanistan has grown in the past few years, as the United States has looked for stabilising influences to operate in the country after its troops leave.
India has pledged aid worth US$2 billion (Dh7.34bn) to Afghanistan, has hosted the Afghan president Hamid Karzai on multiple occasions and is training officers in Afghanistan's national security forces.
This has left Pakistan jittery that it will "be left alone to confront an unstable, an unfriendly or an Indian-influenced Afghanistan on its borders" after American troops withdraw in 2014, a US defence department report said last year.
Some analysts predicted hostilities between India and Pakistan may play out directly on Afghan soil.
Three suicide bombers in a car attempted to attack the Indian consulate in Jalalabad on August 3, killing nine Afghan civilians. Indian doctors, aid workers and construction workers were killed in attacks in 2010.
Last week, a source from the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terror group that has been linked to an attack the 2008 attacks in Mumbai and on the Indian parliament in 2001, told Reuters: "It is correct that the LeT co-operates with the Afghan Taliban when there is a question of attacking Indian interests."
"India's equity are now deeply engaged in Afghanistan, and the danger is that the next frontier of the India-Pakistan conflict is going to be Afghanistan," Robert Blackwill, a former US envoy to India, said at an ambassadors round-table in Washington last month.
However, an unnamed Pakistani foreign ministry official denied that Pakistan was looking to foment trouble against India in Afghanistan. "I'm shocked by these allegations. Pakistan has its own insurgency to deal with. It has no appetite for confrontations abroad," the official was quoted by Reuters as saying.
Mr Raghavan, too, called it "slightly absurd" that India and Pakistan-sponsored militant groups would come to blows in Afghanistan.
"India doesn't share a border with Afghanistan, so there are severe limitations to what India can do there," he said. "And the Indian government is the first to realise this."
In fact, India is aware of Pakistan's sensitivities in Afghanistan and is holding back on how deeply it engages with Kabul, said Sushant K Singh, a defence policy fellow at the Takshashila Institution, a Chennai-based think tank.
The Afghan army "may still not get all the training that Karzai desires," Mr Singh said. "India doesn't want to go the whole hog. So we might see more training, but it probably won't be on the scale that the Afghan army wants."
A former Indian government official said there was no prospect of a proxy war when India's presence in Afghanistan is largely developmental.
"I think attacks on Indian missions will continue, particularly in Jalalabad and Kandahar," he said. "But for the most part, I think this notion of a proxy war is convenient for the Americans, who fear alienating Pakistan. To satisfy Pakistan, they want India to make concessions in its involvement in Afghanistan."
ssubramanian@thenational.ae
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
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The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Other workplace saving schemes
- The UAE government announced a retirement savings plan for private and free zone sector employees in 2023.
- Dubai’s savings retirement scheme for foreign employees working in the emirate’s government and public sector came into effect in 2022.
- National Bonds unveiled a Golden Pension Scheme in 2022 to help private-sector foreign employees with their financial planning.
- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Maiden; Dh165,000; (Dirt) 1,200m
7.05pm: Handicap; Dh170,000; (D) 1,200m
7.40pm: Maiden; Dh165,000; (D) 1,900m
8.15pm: Handicap; Dh185,000; (D) 2,000m
8.50pm: Handicap; Dh185,000; (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap; Dh165,000; (D) 2,000m
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m, Winner SS Lamea, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer).
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m, Winner AF Makerah, Sean Kirrane, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m, Winner Maaly Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,600m, Winner AF Momtaz, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m, Winner Morjanah Al Reef, Brett Doyle, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 2,200m, Winner Mudarrab, Jim Crowley, Erwan Charpy
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group B
Tottenham Hotspur 1 (Eriksen 80')
Inter Milan 0
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
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- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm
Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: L/100km
Price: Dh306,495
On sale: now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Book%20Details
%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3EThree%20Centuries%20of%20Travel%20Writing%20by%20Muslim%20Women%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEditors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiobhan%20Lambert-Hurley%2C%20Daniel%20Majchrowicz%2C%20Sunil%20Sharma%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EIndiana%20University%20Press%3B%20532%20pages%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDirect%20Debit%20System%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sept%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20with%20a%20subsidiary%20in%20the%20UK%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Elaine%20Jones%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tell Me Who I Am
Director: Ed Perkins
Stars: Alex and Marcus Lewis
Four stars
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National