KHARTOUM // An alleged plot revealed last week to sabotage Sudan's security is linked to hard-core Islamist military officers and highlights turmoil within the regime of President Omar Al Bashir, analysts say.
Information Minister Ahmed Bilal Osman announced on Thursday the arrest of 13 people, including high-profile members of the security forces, who "targeted the stability of the state and some leaders of the state".
Unlike previous threats from political opponents, this one comes from within the military inner circles of Mr Bashir's 23-year regime, said Khalid Tigani, an analyst and chief editor of the weekly economic newspaper Elaff.
"The government ... has never been isolated like now," he said.
Tigani, a former activist in the National Islamic Front party which engineered the 1989 coup that brought Bashir to power, now calls himself an independent Muslim.
"This is a big mess," said Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow at the non-profit Rift Valley Institute of training and research, which focuses on Sudan and nearby countries.
He said that although the regime is battling insurgencies believed backed by neighbouring South Sudan in its border states, the major threat comes from closer to home.
"The biggest problem is in-house," Gizouli said.
Columnist Abdullah Rizig wrote in The Citizen newspaper today that the plot, about which officials have given only vague details, reflects "discontent and protest growing within the regime".
Information Minister Osman highlighted the arrest of Salah Gosh, who served as national intelligence chief until 2009.
But analysts focused on another name: armed forces Brigadier Mohammed Ibrahim, who played a role in the 1989 coup.
Earlier this year, he volunteered as a commander in the recapture of Sudan's Heglig oilfield from occupying South Sudanese forces in what he considered to be a jihad or Islamic holy war, said Mr Tigani.
"He's a hard-core Islamist with a long history of battle in South Sudan and so on," Mr Gizouli added, referring to the 1983-2005 civil war that led to the South's separation last year.
He and Mr Tigani named another arrested officer as Colonel Fateh Rahim Abdallah, who recently commanded the joint Sudan-Chad border force.
Most of the detained military men are close to a vocal group of ex-civil war volunteer mujahideen fighters and an elite group within them called Al Saeohoon or "tourists for the sake of God," Mr Tigani said.
The war veterans, along with a youth movement within the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), have been calling for new national leadership and a return to Islamic values because they say the government is tainted by corruption and other problems.
Those seeking "reform" had hoped for change earlier this month at a congress of the Islamic Movement, a social group at the heart of the ruling NCP.
"I think their major concern ... is to make the movement in charge of the government and its political party, and not the other way around," said Safwat Fanous, a political scientist at the University of Khartoum.
But the election of a regime loyalist to head the movement showed the reformers failed and the government had reinforced its control, he said.
The hard-core Islamists were so incensed that, fearing possible violence, the authorities took a pre-emptive move against them, Mr Tigani said.
"Most people don't think there was a real move to topple the government," he said.
A witness saw armoured vehicles moving near Khartoum's airport about the time state-linked media revealed the "plot".
"They expected maybe a military showdown," Gizouli said.
But there was no gunfire — only verbal volleys.
In a letter posted on some websites and emailed to journalists yesterday, London-based former mujahideen Abdelghani Ahmed Edries warned the government "will pay a high price" if it harms those arrested.
"They are national heroes," he said, speaking for a group called the NCP Reform Forum.
What to do with those it has arrested is problem for the government in a country which has experienced at least seven coups or attempted coups in its 56-year history.
"They might try to talk to some, threaten others, and push some into exile," Mr Gizouli said.
"I expect a great deal of suspicion on all sides."
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Company name: Almouneer
Started: 2017
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Investment: Bootstrapped, with support from Insead and Egyptian government, seed round of
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What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
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How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Revibe
Started: 2022
Founders: Hamza Iraqui and Abdessamad Ben Zakour
Based: UAE
Industry: Refurbished electronics
Funds raised so far: $10m
Investors: Flat6Labs, Resonance and various others
Company profile
Company name: Fasset
Started: 2019
Founders: Mohammad Raafi Hossain, Daniel Ahmed
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: $2.45 million
Current number of staff: 86
Investment stage: Pre-series B
Investors: Investcorp, Liberty City Ventures, Fatima Gobi Ventures, Primal Capital, Wealthwell Ventures, FHS Capital, VN2 Capital, local family offices
Company Profile
Name: Direct Debit System
Started: Sept 2017
Based: UAE with a subsidiary in the UK
Industry: FinTech
Funding: Undisclosed
Investors: Elaine Jones
Number of employees: 8
COMPANY PROFILE
Company: Eco Way
Started: December 2023
Founder: Ivan Kroshnyi
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Electric vehicles
Investors: Bootstrapped with undisclosed funding. Looking to raise funds from outside
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Xpanceo
Started: 2018
Founders: Roman Axelrod, Valentyn Volkov
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Smart contact lenses, augmented/virtual reality
Funding: $40 million
Investor: Opportunity Venture (Asia)
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COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: HyperPay
Started: 2014
Founder: Muhannad Ebwini
Based: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Industry: FinTech
Funding size: $55m
Investors: AB Ventures, Amwal Capital, INet, Mada VC, Mastercard, SVC