In 1798 the English economist, Thomas Malthus, published An Essay on the Principle of Population. In it he wrote: “The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.” Malthus argued that population growth, if left unchecked, would result in mass famine, pestilence and poverty. However, Malthus’s pessimism failed to factor in humanity’s ingenuity and innovation. Technological improvements in food production have, at least for now, averted global Malthusian meltdown. This too, in the face of massive population growth. That said, Malthus’s formula of “more people more problems” seems to hold true for mental health.
One of the largest studies to explore the relationship between population and mental health problems was undertaken in Sweden. This study, published in the British Journal of Psychiatry in 2004, looked at population trends over a four-year period among the entire Swedish population. The study found that greater population density (the number of people per square kilometre) was associated with higher rates of mental health problems, specifically depression and psychosis. Furthermore, as the population density of certain localities increased, typically due to people taking up new employment opportunities, the percentage of people experiencing mental health problems also increased. More people, more problems, let’s call this the Malthus effect.
We recently explored a similar idea using Twitter data for the United States. We found a clear relationship between a state’s population density and the relative negativity or positivity expressed in the tweets of the state’s population. Happier states tended to be those with lower population densities and vice versa. More people, less positivity.
UAE-based research also supports the idea of a Malthus effect. A study published in the International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry in 2004 explored the levels of depressive symptoms among 610 elderly Emiratis in Dubai, Ras Al Khaimah and Al Ain. The rate of depression for the elderly residents of Dubai was more than twice as high as that reported among the RAK and Al Ain seniors. These findings are open to several interpretations, one being the Malthus effect. Dubai has the highest population density of the three locations in the study.
Another UAE study looked at two different communities in RAK. This study compared rates of depressive symptoms between residents of a relatively sparsely populated community and also among residents of the more densely populated urban community. Both populations were matched for age, gender and nationality. However, the rural residents had markedly lower levels of depressive symptoms.
The most spectacular support for the Malthus effect, however, comes from the work of the celebrated American ethologist John B Calhoun.
Starting his explorations in the 1950s, Calhoun spent two decades looking at the effects of overcrowding in rats and mice. Overpopulation among the rodents in these studies ultimately had catastrophic effects. Overcrowding was associated with increases in aggressive behaviour and the neglect and wounding of offspring (offspring mortality reached 96 per cent in one study).
Eventually, overcrowding would lead to social breakdown, a cessation of reproduction and ultimately the extinction of the population. More rodents, more problems.
We can’t generalise from rats to humans: for one thing we are far more innovative. Just as our innovations helped us fight famine, perhaps an increased investment in psychotherapeutic and psycho-educational technology will help us counteract the psychological aspects of the Malthus effect. Since the middle of the 20th century, the Arabian Gulf’s population increased seven-fold. If we are to continue to flourish, we certainly need to explore new ways of ensuring that we can feed our psychological needs.
Dr Justin Thomas is an associate professor at Zayed University
On Twitter: @DrJustinThomas
The rules of the road keeping cyclists safe
Cyclists must wear a helmet, arm and knee pads
Have a white front-light and a back red-light on their bike
They must place a number plate with reflective light to the back of the bike to alert road-users
Avoid carrying weights that could cause the bike to lose balance
They must cycle on designated lanes and areas and ride safe on pavements to avoid bumping into pedestrians
Company profile
Company: Zywa
Started: 2021
Founders: Nuha Hashem and Alok Kumar
Based: UAE
Industry: FinTech
Funding size: $3m
Company valuation: $30m
The biog
Mission to Seafarers is one of the largest port-based welfare operators in the world.
It provided services to around 200 ports across 50 countries.
They also provide port chaplains to help them deliver professional welfare services.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
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COMPANY PROFILE:
Name: Envision
Started: 2017
Founders: Karthik Mahadevan and Karthik Kannan
Based: The Netherlands
Sector: Technology/Assistive Technology
Initial investment: $1.5 million
Current number of staff: 20
Investment stage: Seed
Investors: 4impact, ABN Amro, Impact Ventures and group of angels
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
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Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
