In Saudi Arabia, Ian Bremmer foresees  “destabilising discord". (Adam Jeffery / CNBC / NBCU / Getty Images)
In Saudi Arabia, Ian Bremmer foresees “destabilising discord". (Adam Jeffery / CNBC / NBCU / Getty Images)

There are no certainties, but conflict will intensify



With the start of the new year, the pundits have given their forecasts for the world in 2016. Almost without exception they make grim reading, seeing more of the wars and lack of leadership that characterised the past 12 months.

Ian Bremmer, a US political scientist and doyen of global soothsayers, put it bluntly: the outlook was gloomier and more turbulent than at any time since he began publishing his predictions 15 years ago. “In 2016, conflict intensifies.”

Perhaps surprising to a Middle Eastern audience, the multiple crises in the region did not come top of the risk list issued by his consultancy, the Eurasia Group.

First was the weakening of US-European alliance, an anchor of security in troubled times; second came “closed Europe” where the bonds of solidarity among European nations are sundered by inequality, refugees, terrorism and populism; and third was China’s economic turbulence spreading around the world.

The first country to be listed, at number 5, is Saudi Arabia, where Mr Bremmer foresees a combination of “destabilising discord” at home and the challenge abroad of a resurgent Iran freed from sanctions, and all at a time of sharply declining oil revenues.

Any list of threats is by nature subjective and usually quickly overtaken by events. But what is indisputable is the common factor among them – the retreat of America from its role of global superpower and its economic superiority.

Nowhere is this more obvious than in the Middle East where Washington under Barack Obama has stepped away from the region and left the Syria conflict to escalate until half the population are displaced and hundreds of thousands are heading north to Europe.

It is not quite true that Mr Obama has abandoned the region, however keenly Washington’s Gulf allies may feel this. He has focused his efforts on bringing Iran in from the cold, offering relief from sanctions in return for time-limited restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme which effectively rules out any development of a nuclear weapon for 15 years. The rapprochement with Iran has made America’s impotence over Syria, where grand aspirations have not been backed up by forceful policies, all the more suspect in the eyes of Gulf states.

In an election year at the end of Mr Obama’s second term, it is hard to find reasons to be optimistic about a renewal of US global leadership. Mr Obama makes no secret of prioritising the domestic agenda, as evidenced by his tearful announcement of his plans to restrict the sale of guns, following a spate of shooting incidents.

As the Republican Party goes about selecting its candidate for the presidency, the country appears to have taken a holiday from reality. The truth is that the United States – and indeed the western hemisphere as a whole – is spared the security threats that haunt the Old World. In fact, with Cuba and the US ending half a century of enmity and Colombia’s long-running insurgency close to ending, the region looks at peace as rarely before.

But the hot topic at the Republican debates is national security, and what the future president is going to do to stop ISIL conquering America and how high to build the wall along the Mexican border. Serious debate – rather than mythical threats – cannot be expected in an election season, but this bubble cannot last.

Given that Donald Trump, self-promoting property billionaire, is unlikely to be elected president in November, it is a fair bet that a reasonably sober administration will take office next year, with the aim of preventing real threats turning into war rather than fantasising about distant jihadists.

It is always dangerous to predict that the future will be a continuation of the past. The major surprises of the past two years – the ISIL capture of Mosul, the Russian annexation of Crimea, the mass immigration of refugees into Europe – were predicted by no one. So it may be that the commonly held narrative of resurgent Iran masterfully extending its influence throughout the region will prove to have been overblown.

Iran also has an election this year – in February – which is probably the most important in recent years. In addition to electing a new majlis or parliament, voters will choose members of the Assembly of Experts, the body which selects the Supreme Leader. In time, it is likely to choose the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 76.

The future course of Iran is up for grabs. The battle is fought at the polls – in the Iranian case, only with a preapproved list of candidates – but potentially more significantly in the shadows, between those who want to open up Iran to the outside world and the hardliners who prefer to maintain their power and wealth by keeping Iran as a semi-pariah.

The biggest sign of this battle is the torching of the Saudi embassy in Tehran in response to the execution of Nimr Al Nimr, a Shia cleric. By any standard this was an own goal for Iran.

Without this reckless violation of international law, Iran could have emerged looking more like a mature and responsible power, not one where the thugs are in charge. Saudi accusations of Iran being a disruptive force gained credibility. Not surprisingly, the president, Hassan Rouhani has condemned the attack as an “insult to Iran’s dignity and national security”.

Clearly there are powerful forces at work trying to disrupt the rise of the moderates and the nuclear agreement they have championed. With control of the levers of power at stake, it is possible that 2016 will be a year of internal strife for Iran.

There is no certainty in any forecast, but the prediction of Iran plagued by discord at home and imperial overstretch abroad is as valid as any. In the meantime, a new administration must take its place in Washington. It is unlikely to go to war, whatever tone is set by the Republican debates, but it will certainly want to reassess the Obama strategy of “strategic patience”.

Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs

On Twitter @aphilps

COMPANY PROFILE

Company: Bidzi

● Started: 2024

● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid

● Based: Dubai, UAE

● Industry: M&A

● Funding size: Bootstrapped

● No of employees: Nine

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid

CHATGPT%20ENTERPRISE%20FEATURES
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UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

Company profile

Date started: December 24, 2018

Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer

Based: Dubai Media City

Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)

Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech

Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year

Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN MARITIME DISPUTE

2000: Israel withdraws from Lebanon after nearly 30 years without an officially demarcated border. The UN establishes the Blue Line to act as the frontier.

2007: Lebanon and Cyprus define their respective exclusive economic zones to facilitate oil and gas exploration. Israel uses this to define its EEZ with Cyprus

2011: Lebanon disputes Israeli-proposed line and submits documents to UN showing different EEZ. Cyprus offers to mediate without much progress.

2018: Lebanon signs first offshore oil and gas licencing deal with consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.

2018-2019: US seeks to mediate between Israel and Lebanon to prevent clashes over oil and gas resources.

Cricket World Cup League 2

UAE squad

Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind

Fixtures

Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE

Pathaan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Siddharth%20Anand%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Deepika%20Padukone%2C%20John%20Abraham%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma

When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome

Thank You for Banking with Us

Director: Laila Abbas

Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum

Rating: 4/5

Jigra
Director: Vasan Bala
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Rated: 3.5/5
Results

Catchweight 60kg: Mohammed Al Katheeri (UAE) beat Mostafa El Hamy (EGY) TKO round 3

Light Heavyweight: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) no contest Kevin Oumar (COM) Unintentional knee by Oumer

Catchweight 73kg:  Yazid Chouchane (ALG) beat Ahmad Al Boussairy (KUW) Unanimous decision

Featherweight: Faris Khaleel Asha (JOR) beat Yousef Al Housani (UAE) TKO in round 2 through foot injury

Welterweight: Omar Hussein (JOR) beat Yassin Najid (MAR); Split decision

Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) beat Sallah Eddine Dekhissi (MAR); Round-1 TKO

Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammed Ali Musalim (UAE) beat Medhat Hussein (EGY); Triangle choke submission

Welterweight: Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) beat Sofiane Oudina (ALG); Triangle choke Round-1

Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) beat Saleem Al Bakri (JOR); Unanimous decision

Bantamweight: Ali Taleb (IRQ) beat Nawras Abzakh (JOR); TKO round-2

Catchweight 63kg: Rany Saadeh (PAL) beat Abdel Ali Hariri (MAR); Unanimous decision

A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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Company%20profile
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Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants

SQUADS

India
Virat Kohli (captain), Rohit Sharma (vice-captain), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni (wicketkeeper), Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Shardul Thakur

New Zealand
Kane Williamson (captain), Martin Guptill, Colin Munro, Ross Taylor, Tom Latham (wicketkeeper), Henry Nicholls, Ish Sodhi, George Worker, Glenn Phillips, Matt Henry, Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Adam Milne, Trent Boult

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20May%2028%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESunday%2C%20May%2029%2C%20United%20States%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ETuesday%2C%20May%2031%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3EWednesday%2C%20June%201%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%203%2C%20UAE%20v%20Scotland%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%204%2C%20UAE%20v%20United%20States%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAhmed%20Raza%20(captain)%2C%20Chirag%20Suri%2C%20Muhammad%20Waseem%2C%20Vriitya%20Aravind%2C%20CP%20Rizwan%2C%20Basil%20Hameed%2C%20Rohan%20Mustafa%2C%20Kashif%20Daud%2C%20Karthik%20Meiyappan%2C%20Zahoor%20Khan%2C%20Junaid%20Siddique%2C%20Alishan%20Sharafu%2C%20Akif%20Raja%2C%20Rahul%20Bhatia%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETable%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Oman%2032%2019%2011%2040%20%2B0.156%3Cbr%3E2.%20Scotland%2016%2011%203%2024%20%2B0.574%3Cbr%3E3.%20UAE%2018%2010%206%2022%20%2B0.22%3Cbr%3E4.%20Namibia%2014%207%207%2014%20%2B0.096%3Cbr%3E5.%20United%20States%2016%207%209%2014%20-0.229%3Cbr%3E6.%20Nepal%2012%206%206%2012%20%2B0.113%3Cbr%3E7.%20Papua%20New%20Guinea%2020%201%2019%202%20-0.856%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

ELECTION%20RESULTS
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Maestro
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBradley%20Cooper%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBradley%20Cooper%2C%20Carey%20Mulligan%2C%20Maya%20Hawke%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SPEC%20SHEET
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BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE

Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega

Director: Tim Burton

Rating: 3/5

if you go

The flights

Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes. 

The hotels

Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes. 

When to visit

March-May and September-November

Visas

Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.

SPEC%20SHEET
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