One more run at engagement with Iran in Geneva



As diplomatic revelations unfold about the content of the Wikileaks documents, leaders in the Middle East seem to be understandably preoccupied with Iran. Some cables have even expressed a willingness to consider the use of force by the US to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon.
Publicly, the Obama administration has said that all options are on the table in dealing with Tehran. But Washington has so far given priority to sanctions and, it seems, at least, one more run at engagement.
After more than a year, the US, along with the UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany, the P5+1, are preparing for another round of talks with Iran next week in Geneva. American and Iranian delegations will also participate in the 7th annual Regional Security Summit, or "Manama Dialogue," organised by London's International Institute for Strategic Studies this weekend in Bahrain.
As two diplomatic arenas, Geneva and Manama provide opportunities for a re-start in US diplomacy with Iran about its nuclear programme, and for institutionalising a regional security agenda for the Gulf.
Let's start with Geneva, where the endgame for US-Iran nuclear diplomacy is Iran's full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in return for sanctions relief. The talks will take place following last year's Tehran Declaration, signed by the Foreign Ministers of Iran, Turkey, and Brazil, in which Iran agreed to ship 1,200kg of low-enriched uranium to Turkey in return for the delivery of 120kg of nuclear fuel for civilian medical purposes.
As Iran may be feeling the squeeze of US and UN sanctions at the moment, the US could consider a two-tiered agenda centred on the Tehran Declaration and an earlier 2008 P5+1 proposal to Iran for a "broad-based negotiation".
First, the Tehran Declaration, though flawed from a US perspective, should be considered a diplomatic breakthrough. Agreement on the fuel swap could allow Iran a face-saving win for its diplomacy, perhaps justifying a pause in its enrichment activities as called for in UN Security Council resolutions.
It could also set a precedent of Iran sending its uranium abroad for enrichment under IAEA supervision. If a compromise on a modified fuel swap (the US wants more than 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium to be shipped out of Iran) cannot be reached next week in Geneva, the outcome should be intensive, sustained, working-level talks between Iran and the members of the "Vienna Group" (the US, Russia, France and the IAEA) as well as Turkey and Brazil, if Ankara and Brasilia are willing.
Secondly, a June 2008 proposal by the P5+1 to Iran states that a pause in enrichment and full cooperation with the IAEA could lead to a "broad-based negotiation" with Iran, including assistance with civil nuclear energy, a guaranteed nuclear fuel supply, and discussions about regional security and political and economic cooperation in other areas. An EU statement in July announcing sanctions on Iran noted that "proposals made to Iran in June 2008 are still valid". Another outcome of the Geneva talks might include working groups on aspects of this proposal.
In Bahrain, meanwhile, both the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will be speaking, albeit on different days, at the Manama Dialogue. The presence of both Mrs Clinton and Mr Mottaki, as well as ministerial delegations from the Gulf and worldwide, could provide an unusual opportunity for the US, Iran, Iraq, and the GCC states to present new initiatives for a Gulf regional security agenda.
Such initiatives could include inviting Iran to join GCC efforts to establish a nuclear-weapons-free zone and the peaceful use of nuclear energy in the region; economic, environmental and maritime cooperation in the Gulf; regional support for Iraq and Afghanistan; and combatting trafficking in narcotics and persons.
To be effective, diplomacy must be sustained, not episodic. There will be no peaceful outcome absent negotiations with Iran. As such, the choice, more than ever, seems to be with Tehran.
The Wikileaks documents have revealed that private discussions among US and regional leaders convey an even greater sense of urgency and crisis than what is said in public about Iran's ambitions. Geneva and Manama may be among the last chances for a diplomatic complement to sanctions and the possible threat of force.
 
Andrew Parasiliti is the executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies - US

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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