In the days of the Soviet Union, there was a group of people known as Kremlinologists, of whom Condoleezza Rice was probably the most famous. Their job was to watch the events at the Kremlin, the seat of Moscow's government, and interpret them to a waiting world.
The position the nation's elite - or nomenklatura - assumed when observing the arrival of a parade in Red Square was significant. So, too, was their absence in official portraits. The Kremlinologists were forced to live off scraps because there was no official comment from the Politburo. When the Soviet Union finally unravelled in spectacular fashion, the watchers had failed to observe the signs, so consumed were they by the minutiae.
In a similar fashion over the past few months, a group of analysts have formed with one purpose: to comment on the status of Dubai's debt. Let's call them "Dubaiologists". With little official comment, they have been forced to speculate on its nature. Even worse and potentially more destabilising for an economy, investors assumed the worst: recently the spread on credit default swaps for Dubai Holding's debt has reached 10.50 percentage points per year. As one Dubaiologist explained, this means that it now costs more than US$1 million (Dh3.67m) a year to insure against the possible default of $10m worth of Dubai Holding's debt.
This is absurdly high, but lack of information breeds this kind of uncertainty. Nobody suggests that the thriving free market of the UAE bears any resemblance to the collectivisation of the Soviet Union. It is just that they would like a bit more transparency, and to be able to rely on fact, not rumour.
So it was with a sigh of relief that Dubaiologists greeted this week's comments by Mohammed Ali Alabbar, the chairman of Emaar and head of the special Dubai Executive Council formed to oversee its debt situation. "Let me therefore state categorically," he said. "The Government can and will meet its obligations going forward. Let there be no doubt about this fact... the total debt obligations of affiliated companies stand at $70 billion compared with assets valued at $260bn."
Many investors were relieved. The Dubai Financial Market even posted a gain that day, breaking a long downwards trend. In fact, the only people possibly worried by such a revelation were the Dubaiologists. Could this mean they would be out of a job?
It was Morgan Stanley who first put their heads over the parapet in the summer and called the top of Dubai's property market. Their forecast that property prices would fall by 10 per cent by 2010 was widely vilified. The authorities rallied to condemn the report. But what the developers would give now for such a measured fall in prices; the reality may be much worse.
"International investors are capable of drawing their own conclusions if provided with data that are consistent and [available] on a regular basis," said George Makhoul, the president of Morgan Stanley's operations in the MENA region, at a panel hosted by DIFC Week. "In the absence of transparency, once we enter into crisis mode, effects are going to get exacerbated and there will be a loss of confidence - rumours will feed into vicious cycles."
While he said it was "refreshing" to hear official views of figures on government books from Mr Alabbar, Mr Makhoul asked: "Why couldn't we have had that information three months ago and in a consistent fashion?"
Speaking at the same event, Sameer al Ansari, the chief executive of Dubai International Capital, said it was difficult to evaluate retail figures in the GCC, for example, because the numbers "don't exist".
There is no news on inflation, despite the Ministry of Economy promising in August to release the latest figures. Dubaiologists are already processing the information from Mr Alabbar, and developing a hunger for more. JP Morgan Chase put out a research note full of praise for Mr Alabbar's words, but with a caveat. "It is a welcome step, finally clarifying the debt position of Dubai, yet in our opinion, the real problem for Dubai-related entities is not the 'asset coverage' but 'cash flow coverage'."
Government authorities reading such a report must wonder what they can do to satisfy the demands of the Dubaiologists. Surely it is plain to everyone that Dubai has plenty of money to pay its creditors? Yesterday, it was announced that Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group, the holding company of Dubai Holding's property, tourism, infrastructure and telecoms operations, repaid Dh2.4bn of eurobond and bank debt. How should we interpret this? Maybe it is just a case of a company repaying a loan, something that happens all the time. But should we be afraid to ask?
A Kremlinologist making too many assumptions risked the possibility of being sent to Siberia, if he ever set foot in the country. Such radical measures are unlikely here, but there are growing signs that Dubaiologists who ask too many questions, or who draw unnecessary conclusions, risk being sent into the cold.
When Citibank issued a report on Dubai on Nov 17, its author did not pull any punches, but nor was he incendiary. "As the global oil surplus shrinks, Dubai is the most vulnerable, as it has thrived on regional surpluses. Real estate and debt refinancing are real risks, but we believe Dubai will pull through with some help," he wrote in the executive summary.
Eight days later, Citigroup sent out a statement distancing itself from Mushtaq Khan's measured and informative report. "With regards to Citi Investment Research reports, including the latest special report titled: 'Managing domestic and global expectations/The policy challenges facing the GCC', Citi management would like to state that all the views expressed in these reports do not necessarily reflect the views of Citi as a company. Furthermore, these views accurately reflect the personal views of the relevant authors about any and all of the subject securities, issuers, currencies, commodities, futures, options, economies or strategies."
In other words, you are on your own, mate.
But muzzling the messenger is not the answer. Few doubt that Dubai - and the country as a whole - will emerge from the global slowdown and financial turmoil. House prices will probably go down. Debt may need to be refinanced on less generous terms. That is what happens. Concerns about Dubai's debt are overdone, says the head of the Dubai International Financial Center.
"Ratings agencies say Dubai lacks the financial muscle to cover debt. Dubai is not just built on credit; in the past it's largely been equity financing rather than debt," said David Eldon, the chairman of the DIFC Authority. "The reality is that Dubai is not alone, it has the backing of the UAE, particularly Abu Dhabi, which happens to have the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, as well as vast oil reserves."
However, such a guarantee is implicit, rather than explicit. How should we interpret his comments? If Abu Dhabi is willing to assume Dubai's debts, shouldn't it just come out and say so? Nor is it helpful to hoard economic data. That just breeds uncertainty and fear, and no investor can cope with either of those emotions.
"You can't manage without the information and statistics, whether for government [affiliated entities], private [companies] or a corner shop," said Mr Ansari. "This is an issue in this part of the world... that we need to tackle; [to have] timely, accurate dissemination of information."
Otherwise Dubaiologists, like their former counterparts the Kremlinologists, risk being unable to interpret correctly the story because they are left considering crumbs - and miss out altogether on the cake.
* additional reporting by Sara Hamdan and Travis Pantin
rwright@thenational.ae
Indika
Developer: 11 Bit Studios
Publisher: Odd Meter
Console: PlayStation 5, PC and Xbox series X/S
Rating: 4/5
SPEC SHEET: SAMSUNG GALAXY Z FOLD5
Main display: 7.6" QXGA+ Dynamic Amoled 2X, Infinity Flex, 2176 x 1812, 21.6:18, 374ppi, HDR10+, up to 120Hz
Cover display: 6.2" HD+ Dynamic Amoled 2X, 2316 x 904, 23.1:9, 402ppi, up to 120Hz
Processor: Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 2, 4nm, octa-core; Adreno 740 GPU
Memory: 12GB
Capacity: 256/512GB / 1TB (online exclusive)
Platform: Android 13, One UI 5.1.1
Main camera: Triple 12MP ultra-wide (f/2.2) + 50MP wide (f/1.8) + 10MP telephoto (f/2.4), dual OIS, 3x optical zoom, 30x Space Zoom, portrait, super slo-mo
Video: 8K@24fps, 4K@60fps, full-HD@60/240fps, HD@960fps; slo-mo@60/240/960fps; HDR10+
Cover camera: 10MP (f/2.2)
Inner front camera: Under-display 4MP (f/1.8)
Battery: 4400mAh, 25W fast charging, 15W wireless, 4.5W reverse wireless
Connectivity: 5G; Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.3, NFC (Samsung Pay)
I/O: USB-C
Cards: Nano-SIM + eSIM; dual nano-SIMs + eSIM
Colours: Cream, icy blue, phantom black; online exclusives – blue, grey
In the box: Fold5, USB-C-to-USB-C cable
Price: Dh6,799 / Dh7,249 / Dh8,149
TALE OF THE TAPE
Manny Pacquiao
Record: 59-6-2 (38 KOs)
Age: 38
Weight: 146lbs
Height: 166cm
Reach: 170cm
Jeff Horn
Record: 16-0-1 (11 KOs)
Age: 29
Weight: 146.2lbs
Height: 175cm
Reach: 173cm
Meydan race card
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh125,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh170,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 (D)1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 (D) 1,400m
Company profile
Company name: amana
Started: 2010
Founders: Karim Farra and Ziad Aboujeb
Based: UAE
Regulator: DFSA
Sector: Financial services
Current number of staff: 85
Investment stage: Self-funded
RACE CARD
4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m
5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m
Brief scores:
Scotland 371-5, 50 overs (C MacLeod 140 no, K Coetzer 58, G Munsey 55)
England 365 all out, 48.5 overs (J Bairstow 105, A Hales 52; M Watt 3-55)
Result: Scotland won by six runs
The biog
Name: Ayisha Abdulrahman Gareb
Age: 57
From: Kalba
Occupation: Mukrema, though she washes bodies without charge
Favourite things to do: Visiting patients at the hospital and give them the support they need.
Role model: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak, Chairwoman of the General Women's Union, Supreme Chairwoman of the Family Development Foundation and President of the Supreme Council for Motherhood and Childhood.
Hamilton’s 2017
Australia - 2nd; China - 1st; Bahrain - 2nd; Russia - 4th; Spain - 1st; Monaco - 7th; Canada - 1st; Azerbaijan - 5th; Austria - 4th; Britain - 1st; Hungary - 4th; Belgium - 1st; Italy - 1st; Singapore - 1st; Malaysia - 2nd; Japan - 1st; United States - 1st; Mexico - 9th
COMPANY PROFILE
Company: Eco Way
Started: December 2023
Founder: Ivan Kroshnyi
Based: Dubai, UAE
Industry: Electric vehicles
Investors: Bootstrapped with undisclosed funding. Looking to raise funds from outside
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
Company profile
Company name: Hayvn
Started: 2018
Founders: Christopher Flinos, Ahmed Ismail
Based: Abu Dhabi, UAE
Sector: financial
Initial investment: undisclosed
Size: 44 employees
Investment stage: series B in the second half of 2023
Investors: Hilbert Capital, Red Acre Ventures
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
The specs: 2019 Infiniti QX50
Price, base: Dh138,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0L, turbocharged, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 268hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy: 6.7L / 100km (estimate)
Kill
Director: Nikhil Nagesh Bhat
Starring: Lakshya, Tanya Maniktala, Ashish Vidyarthi, Harsh Chhaya, Raghav Juyal
Rating: 4.5/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT: SAUDI ARABIA RESULTS
Main card
Middleweight:
Robert Whittaker defeated Ikram Aliskerov via knockout (Round 1)
Heavyweight:
Alexander Volkov def Sergei Pavlovich via unanimous decision
Middleweight:
Kelvin Gastelum def Daniel Rodriguez via unanimous decision
Middleweight:
Shara Magomedov def Antonio Trocoli via knockout (Round 3)
Light heavyweight:
Volkan Oezdemir def Johnny Walker via knockout (Round 1)
Preliminary Card
Lightweight:
Nasrat Haqparast def Jared Gordon via split decision
Featherweight:
Felipe Lima def Muhammad Naimov via submission (Round 3)
Welterweight:
Rinat Fakhretdinov defeats Nicolas Dalby via split decision
Bantamweight:
Muin Gafurov def Kang Kyung-ho via unanimous decision
Light heavyweight:
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov def Brendson Ribeiro via majority decision
Bantamweight:
Chang Ho Lee def Xiao Long via split decision
If you go
The flights
The closest international airport for those travelling from the UAE is Denver, Colorado. British Airways (www.ba.com) flies from the UAE via London from Dh3,700 return, including taxes. From there, transfers can be arranged to the ranch or it’s a seven-hour drive. Alternatively, take an internal flight to the counties of Cody, Casper, or Billings
The stay
Red Reflet offers a series of packages, with prices varying depending on season. All meals and activities are included, with prices starting from US$2,218 (Dh7,150) per person for a minimum stay of three nights, including taxes. For more information, visit red-reflet-ranch.net.
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
RESULTS
1.45pm: Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winners: Hyde Park, Royston Ffrench (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
2.15pm: Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
2.45pm: Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Hurry Up, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
3.15pm: Shadwell Jebel Ali Mile Group 3 (TB) Dh575,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Blown by Wind, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
3.45pm: Handicap (TB) Dh72,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Mazagran, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh64,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner: Obeyaan, Adrie de Vries, Mujeeb Rehman
4.45pm: Handicap (TB) Dh84,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: Shanaghai City, Fabrice Veron, Rashed Bouresly.