Abu Dhabi house prices in investment areas where expats from outside the GCC can purchase property rose 5 per cent in the three months to June.
The rise follows an 8 per cent increase in prime house prices recorded during the first quarter of the year - the first price increase since the global financial downturn, according to the property broker Jones Lang LaSalle.
The broker reported that average asking prices in investment areas increased during the second quarter of the year to about Dh11,500 per square metre, up from about Dh11,000 per sq metre in the first quarter. However, they remain a third lower than the Dh17,222 a sq metre asking price reported at the end of 2009 when the market crashed. Average asking prices for apartments stood at Dh130,500 per sq metre, while for villas the price was Dh10,000 per sq metre.
Jones Lang LaSalle said the increases were restricted to the newly built master planned areas in the city, while house prices in the rest of the capital continued to fall because of oversupply.
It attributed the increase to longer term Abu Dhabi residents choosing to buy rather than rent, as the market begins to recover and job security returns, and to regional investors from countries affected by the Arab Spring investing in the UAE as a safe haven.
The Abu Dhabi property market was hit hard by the global financial downturn, which slashed prices and left many new schemes in the capital stalled as investors disappeared and the money ran out.
Unlike neighbouring Dubai, where house prices have been increasing for more than a year and are now rising by as much as 20 per cent per annum, there had been little sign of market recovery in the capital until this year.
"This is certainly positive news for the market, indicating the first signs of recovery and a maturing market," said David Dudley, the regional director and head of Abu Dhabi office at Jones Lang LaSalle.
"While it is encouraging to see the market moving upwards again, it is important to note that these improvements do not represent a market-wide recovery, but relate to selected high-quality developments - with performance continuing to diverge between high-grade and low-grade product."
Developers completed almost 2,300 units during the three months. New homes included the AD One Tower at Capital Centre, Eastern Mangroves Promenade Apartments, Saadiyat Beach villas and apartments, Hydra Village (Phase 1), Al Wifak Tower and Tala Tower on Reem Island and the Rosewood Residences on Al Maryah Island.
Rents in Abu Dhabi's investment areas remained flat over the past three months after increasing 8 per cent during the first three months of the year - something Jones Lang LaSalle said could be a result of government regulations to reduce the level of commuting from Dubai.
According to Jones Lang LaSalle, asking prices for prime rents remained at about Dh130,000 for prime two-bedroom apartments in the city because of growing demand and a relatively restricted supply of high-end properties.
The price remains 44 per cent below the 2008 market peak, when restricted supply meant that annual rents in prime two-bedroom apartments in the city shot up to Dh231,000 a year.
Since then they fell steadily up until the end of last year. Rents for shops also increased in Abu Dhabi for the first time since the global financial crisis as some shopping centres, including Marina Mall, increased their asking rents for some stores.
Jones Lang reported that average retail rents in shopping centres increased to Dh2,887 per sq metre in the second quarter of the year from Dh2,750 per sq metre in March.
However, it added that the increase was because of an increase in premium rents and did not signal a market-wide recovery.
Despite 49,000 sq metres of new prime office space being completed during the second quarter of the year, Jones Lang reported that prime office rents in the city have started to stabilise, remaining at the same level of Dh1,540 per sq metre for the past year. The rents remain a third of their 2008 high, when they stood at Dh3,800 per sq metre.
An increase in the number of hotels in the city meant that room rates in Abu Dhabi continued to fall. According to the report, rates fell 2 per cent over the three months to a per night level of about Dh600. However, a strategy of heavily discounted rates led to occupancy levels increasing by 8 per cent during the first five months of the year, and they now stand at an average of 70 per cent.
For the hospitality sector, the positive effect of increased visitor arrivals has been offset by the significant recent increases in hotel supply. While occupancy levels increased by 8 per cent during the first five months of this year, average daily rates have continued to remain under pressure, declining by 2 per cent. Owing to the positive growth in occupancies, revenue per available room levels in the year to May have experienced an increase of nearly 11 per cent compared with the same period last year.
"Over recent years the Government has made major moves to consolidate supply and re-prioritise its spending initiatives ahead of the next upswing," Mr Dudley added. "The medium-term prospects for Abu Dhabi are therefore very strong: the Government remains committed to investing its substantial revenue surpluses into economic development and major city building initiatives which will continue to drive employment growth and real estate demand."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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