There are limits to how much people and ecosystems can adapt to climate change is the warning from a new report presented at Cop27.
The study, entitled 10 New Insights in Climate Science, says that the number of people living in communities at risk from climate change was likely to increase dramatically over the coming decades.
Large numbers of people are already dying because of the effects of climate change, delegates were told when the report was unveiled in Sharm El Sheikh on Thursday.
Among the report’s key findings are that 1.6 billion people live in "vulnerability hot spots", or areas highly susceptible to climate-driven hazards, and this number will double by 2050.
The Middle East is among the regions identified as being home to such hot spots, while others are in the Sahel, Central America, Central and East Africa, and Asia.
Speaking at a press conference to launch the report, Simon Stiell, the UN climate change executive secretary, described the report findings as alarming.
"Adaptation alone cannot keep up with the impacts of climate change, which are already far worse than originally predicted," he said.
"Adaptation actions cannot substitute for mitigation … the less we mitigate, the more we have to adapt."
Risk for vulnerable communities
Echoing this, a member of the report’s editorial board, Prof Johan Rockstrom, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said that if global temperatures rose more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels ― a key aim of the 2015 Paris Agreement ― they "risk going beyond what vulnerable communities can cope with".
As well as highlighting the limits to adaptation, the report also states that more extreme weather events and slow-onset climatic changes "will increasingly drive involuntary migration and displacement".
"If we want to have a peaceful and secure future, we need to address climate change," Prof Rockstrom said. "Even conflicts are being amplified by climate change."
The report is the latest of an annual series produced by Future Earth, an environmental research programme, The Earth League, a network of scientists and institutions, and the World Climate Research Programme, an initiative supported by the World Meteorological Organisation and the International Council for Science.
Among the other issues the report highlights are the health effects of climate change, and one of the report’s authors, Prof Kristie Ebi, of the University of Washington’s department of global health, said that already "thousands to tens of thousands of people" were dying because of these effects. Yet, she said, less than 1 per cent of the spending on climate adaptation went on health.
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A man wears a face mask that reads "no climate justice without human rights" during a protest at the COP27 UN Climate Summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. AP -
A presentation at the American University in Cairo Pavilion. Reuters -
Egyptian artist Bahia Sheha stands inside her installation "Heaven & Hell in the Anthropocene." AFP -
Akihiro Nishimura, minister of the environment of Japan, reviews notes with others at the COP27. AP -
US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, right, and Xie Zhenhua, China's special envoy for climate greet each other at the COP27 UN Climate Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. AP -
Brazilian president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva poses for a group photograph with representatives of his country's indigenous people. AFP -
People attend the COP27 UN Climate Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh. EPA -
Activists dancing during a discussion on leaflets at the Cop27 climate conference, taking place in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. AFP -
An activist wears a polar bear outfit as part of campaigning. AFP -
From left, Rakia Amandou of Niger, Ba Aminata of Burkina Faso, Kenyan Rosemary Nenini, Fatima Mustafa Ahmed from Sudan and Djeneb Dicko from Burkina Faso at the Indigenous Peoples Pavilion. AP -
Abdulla Nasser Musallam Al Rahbi, Oman's Ambassador to Egypt and Permanent Representative to the Arab League, speaks at the COP27 climate conference in Egypt's Red Sea resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh. AFP -
Climate activists demonstrate in the designated protest zone. AP -
Sheikh Abdullah, Director General of Environment at the Public Authority of Kuwait, speaks at Cop27. AFP -
Visitors at the Sharm El Sheikh International Convention Centre. AFP -
A display outside the convention centre. AFP -
A fountain in the green zone at the International Convention Centre at sunset. AFP -
Mohamed bin Daina, right, Bahrain's Special Envoy for Climate Affairs and Chief Executive at the Supreme Council for Environment, at the conference. AFP -
Members of Extinction Rebellion stage a protest at the Glencairn tidal pool outside Cape Town, South Africa to mark Cop27's 'Water Day'. AP -
From left, Fahad Al Maskari of the Khalifa University, Frank Hartmann, Ghaleb Al Breiki of the UAE University, and Mouna Maroun of the University of Haifa, sign an agreement at Cop27. AFP -
John Kerry, US special presidential envoy for climate, at Cop27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. AP Photo -
Australian climate activists offer bananas to climate summit participants. AFP -
Climate activist Sabrina Elba. AP Photo -
Egyptian security forces stand guard during the protest. AFP -
US President Joe Biden. AFP -
Mr Biden with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. AP -
A Cop27 sign in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, provides the backdrop for this woman's selfie. Reuters -
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El Sisi speaks to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi at the climate summit. AFP -
A water wonderland greets this child at an acquarium in the Cop27 Green Zone. Reuters -
Mr El Sisi, second left, takes part in a cycling marathon on the sidelines of Cop27. EPA -
Rafael Grossi, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaks in Sharm El Sheikh about 'complicated' talks to set up a protection zone around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. AFP -
Frankie the dinosaur. Reuters -
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Reuters -
Sheikha Shamma bint Sultan, CEO of the Alliances for Global Sustainability; Mariam Al Mheiri, Minister of Climate Change and Environment and Minister of State for Food Security; and Hatem Dowidar, group CEO at e&. AFP -
Sameh Shoukry, Cop27 president, centre left, poses for photos in the youth pavilion. AP -
A visitor looks at the 'Zero Point' series of collage portraits by Turkish artist Deniz Sagdic, each of which is made from a particular kind of upcycled waste material. Getty -
Participants visit the Ukrainian pavillon. AFP -
Mr Kerry speaks during a session on accelerating the clean energy transition in developing countries. AP -
Youth climate activists. Pictured, from the left, Eric Njuguna of Kenya, Nicole Becker of Argentina, Vanessa Nakate of Uganda, Sophia Kianni from Iran, and Mitzi Jonelle Tan of the Philippines. AP -
Muhammad Sulaiman Al Jasser, right, chairman of the Islamic Development Bank Group, poses for a photo with Mohamed Hadi Al Hussaini, the UAE's Minister of State for Financial Affairs. AFP -
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund. Bloomberg -
A police officer stands at the entrance of the Sharm El Sheikh International Convention Centre during Cop27. Reuters -
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres. AP Photo -
Former US vice president Al Gore speaks during a session at Cop27. AP Photo -
Demonstrators shout slogans during a protest. AFP
'Scratching the surface'
Other key conclusions in the report are that human security requires climate security, that sustainable land use is essential to meeting climate targets (with sustainable intensification being employed instead of taking more land from nature) and that the private sector’s transition to sustainable finance is happening too slowly.
"It’s only scratching the surface and not having the deep indent on shifting the flow of capital in the way that’s required," Prof Rockstrom said of efforts by the finance sector to develop a more climate-friendly economy.
"We are far from mainstreaming zero carbon finance, which is what we need to have a zero carbon economy by 2050."
The report also called for more inclusive decision-making when it comes to climate, a "co-ordinated global policy response" around issues of loss and damage, and efforts to break down structural barriers that arise from the current "resource-intensive economy".
Despite the challenges, and concerns that national governments are not doing enough to mitigate climate change, Prof Ebi indicated that there was cause for optimism.
"It’s important to not just look at national policy," she said. "It’s important to look at what’s happening sub-nationally. It’s important to look at what businesses are doing.
"There was very little publicity when all of the major automobile manufacturers announced they were out of internal combustion engines. That’s a huge shift. It was not driven by government policy
"I live in Seattle. Boeing is testing electric aeroplanes. There’s enormous change that’s going on. I think we need to celebrate the advances we’ve made knowing that there’s a lot more that needs to be done."
