Iran’s scientists have “solved one half of the ballistic missile puzzle” by developing a workable third-stage rocket booster, leading defence analysts said.
The stakes for a nuclear stand-off were raised after Tehran launched a satellite rocket that could easily be converted into a nuclear missile with a range of about 5,000 kilometres, bringing cities such as London within reach.
Missile experts believe it is now clear Iran is opting for “range over accuracy” in seeking to develop nuclear-tipped intermediate-range ballistic missiles, a strategy that has also been followed by Iran’s ally North Korea.
The worrying Iranian advances are likely to feature in negotiations over its nuclear programme with US President Joe Biden’s administration.
While Iran can claim it is sending civilian communications into space legitimately using its Zuljanah satellite delivery vehicles, security experts said the rocket’s motors could be used to test IRBMs.
"In theory, they could take those motors and use them to build a missile rather than a satellite launch vehicle, at which point it would be their most important solid-fuel propellant ballistic missile," Jeremy Binnie, Middle East editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, told The National.
The Zuljanah’s launch into the high atmosphere marks a crucial new stage in Tehran’s ballistic development, said Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank.
“The Iranians seem to have got to a stage where they have solved one half of the IRBM puzzle, which is the boost phase in effect.”
This didn’t mean Iran had a missile capable of “high-velocity re-entry” through the Earth’s atmosphere, he said. But the use of space launch rockets and long-range ballistic missiles have been “relatively interchangeable for decades”, Mr Bronk said, with the 1960s and 1970s British Blue Streak project used as the basis for the European Space Agency’s Ariane space rocket.
Iran announced it had test-launched its first Zuljanah vehicle in late January after a defence ministry spokesman said the regime had achieved “its most powerful rocket engine”.
The Zuljanah is a 25-metre, three-stage rocket with a solid-fuel engine that can send a 220kg payload up to a height of 500km to launch a satellite. But experts believe that if the scientists lowered its trajectory they could send a one-tonne warhead about 5,000km.
While the Iranians might be on course to launch a nuclear weapon on a sub-orbital trajectory, they still lack the capability to land the bomb with reasonable accuracy on a target such as London, 4,400km away.
But highly skilled Iranian scientists will now be seeking to overcome the technical obstacles of atmosphere re-entry at high speed.
“This requires a large amount of money as you need to test repeatedly both the missile telemetry and, crucially, the re-entry vehicle performance,” Mr Bronk said. “That’s why the many tests are very valuable for the North Koreans and highly disturbing to the Americans.”
It is understood that North Korea has provided significant technical assistance to Iran.
Dough Barrie, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that Iran previously focused on developing accurate cruise and medium-range missiles but has now opted for “range over accuracy”.
“One of the things we’ve seen them doing is to really push extending the ranges of their ballistic arsenal significantly,” he said.
The ever-growing arsenal and improvements in the Iranian missiles does look incredibly threatening
In the past year, Iran has developed the Salman rocket motor, used for satellite launches, which is capable of moving its nozzle to vector its thruster, making it much more accurate.
“The Salman thrust vectoring engine produces improved accuracy in the final stage,” Mr Binnie said. “This is all part of investing heavily in ballistic missile technology and steadily improving what they’ve got.”
Another important aspect of the solid fuel propellant is that it allows missiles to be fuelled and stored in silos for long periods. Liquid fuel is less stable, so rockets require fuelling shortly before launch, delaying their use and giving spy satellites the opportunity to detect hostile intent.
“These missiles would be ready to go and a lot easier to bring into action,” Mr Binnie said. “It helps in terms of having a more credible deterrence to have missiles that are ready to launch when they need them.”
But Iran’s missile arsenal is having a destabilising impact on the region, with Gulf states buying increasingly sophisticated jets to maintain a technological edge.
“The Iranians have their missiles to counter that,” Mr Binnie said. “They cannot get state-of-the-art jets because of sanctions so they’ve invested in missiles to counter the air superiority arrayed against them.
“But now the ever-growing arsenal and improvements in the Iranian missiles does look incredibly threatening. There’s an arms race going on in the region and that is destabilising.”
The arms build-up is something that could be addressed in any future deal between Iran and the West, which is more likely with Mr Biden in power.
In an interview with The National last week, Lt Gen John Lorimer, Britain's most senior commander in the Middle East, said Iran was building up its forces to strengthen its position in negotiations with America on the nuclear agreement.
“I agree entirely with Gen Lorimer in the sense that Iran is playing up to the potential of the Zuljanah test and it’s very much about strengthening Iran’s hand,” Mr Bronk said.
But he believes the deal is likely to concentrate solely on Iran’s nuclear programme rather that its missiles, which is why Tehran is talking up its uranium enrichment levels.
“If they overplay the nuclear missile capability it risks seriously blowing back on them,” he said.
“Frankly, most of the countries with whom they’re really interested in getting a deal have well-proven nuclear deterrence capabilities themselves. And it’s hardly a stretch that if the British were concerned about a threat to London then Iran would know that they would obviously get flattened by Trident missiles. Iran understands its strength is to operate below the threshold of explicit conflict.”
Experts believe there is a long way to go before Iran could have a nuclear-capable missile. The Iranians could speed up development by increasing missile test firing to make a viable re-entry vehicle, but this would send a clear signal of intent and likely lead to an armed response by America and its allies.
Instead, they are expected to test satellite rockets once every six months, perfecting them without drawing undue attention, potentially leading to Iran becoming a nuclear-capable nation.
UAE SQUAD
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
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I Care A Lot
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Pearls on a Branch: Oral Tales
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First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Queen
Nicki Minaj
(Young Money/Cash Money)
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
