A Turkish proposal to share Syria’s oil fields with Russia highlights a latent struggle for the country’s most prized resource, which had fallen to Kurdish militia dependent on the US.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indicated this week that he offered President Vladimir Putin joint revenue management for oilfields in eastern Syria to use for reconstruction.
An understanding between Ankara and Washington in October let Turkey invade areas that had been captured by Kurdish militia in north-east Syria, but kept the Turkish forces and their Syrian rebel proxies away from the oilfields.
Turkey hopes to turn the 30 kilometre deep strip and other border territories it took over in the past two years into a home for refugees it is hosting.
Ankara unveiled plans to build cities and infrastructure and then move more than three million Syrian refugees in Turkey into the zones, which would supposedly be free from regime bombardment.
Mr Erdogan said that if Mr Putin agreed, “we can do the construction and through the oil obtained there, we can help destroyed Syria get on its feet".
"If such a step can be taken here, I can even make the same offer to [US President Donald] Trump," Mr Erdogan said.
"Instead of terrorists benefiting here, we would have the opportunity to rebuild Syria."
He indicated that Mr Putin had not committed to the plan and there was no official reaction from Russia.
Deir Ezzor and Hasakah governorates in eastern Syria account for most of Syria’s oil production.
Most of the oilfields in the regions are with the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), the military wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD).
The YPG is closely linked with the Turkish Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK), which is listed as a terrorist organisation in Turkey, the US and in much of Western Europe.
Despite reducing its military presence in Syria, the US kept troops that prevented the regime of President Bashar Al Assad from taking over the oilfields in Deir Ezzor and stopped Turkey from overrunning Rmelan, a major oilfield in Hasakah on the border.
Mr Trump said in October that he believed US oil companies should “take some of the oil”.
The regime’s loose grip on the oilfields created a new class of smugglers and local barons in Syria’s east.
There, corruption and mismanagement of agriculture contributed to near-famine in the decade before the 2011 revolt against Assad family rule.
A new wealthy class emerged among the Kurds of eastern Syria by taking on an intermediary role through links with Kurdish militia commanders and the Assad regime.
Among the new profiteers is a Kurdish merchant known as Abu Al Dalu from the city of Qamishli.
He is connected with the YPG and with Muhammad Al Qatirji, a regime associate under US sanctions, Kurdish sources and European diplomats say.
The US Treasury describes Mr Al Qatirji as having enbled “fuel trade between the regime and ISIS, including providing oil products to ISIS-controlled territory”.
A Kurdish source working with the YPG administration in Hasakah said oil production, mainly from Rmelan oilfield and Al Omar in Deir Ezzor, brings in about $100 million a month.
The revenue comes from sales to regime and rebel areas, as well as to Iraq and smuggling to Turkey.
“The oil not only finances YPG salaries but has become a major source for the PKK in Qandil,” the source said, referring to the PKK’s headquarters in the mountains of northern Iraq.
Control over the oil and Syria’s border crossings were main points of contention in talks between the regime and the YPG, which had picked up since the Turkish incursion in October then subsided, European diplomats said.
Syrian Oil Ministry figures put oil production in Syria in 2010, the last full year before the revolt, at 380,000 barrels per day.
But industry executives working in Syria at the time said actual production was significantly lower due to dilapidated infrastructure and US sanctions, which have intensified since the revolt.
Today Syria’s oil output, mostly from regions under Kurdish militia control, is estimated at 50,000-70,000 barrels per day.
Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report economic and business newsletter, said that although Syria's output could help to meet some of Turkey's oil needs, Mr Erdogan's main aim was to starve his Kurdish enemies of the revenues.
“A direct takeover by Turkey would bring with it problems related to sanctions and legal issues,” Yazigi said.
“Erdogan wants to take the oilfields out of the hands of the PKK.”
The Programme
Saturday, October 26: ‘The Time That Remains’ (2009) by Elia Suleiman
Saturday, November 2: ‘Beginners’ (2010) by Mike Mills
Saturday, November 16: ‘Finding Vivian Maier’ (2013) by John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
Tuesday, November 26: ‘All the President’s Men’ (1976) by Alan J Pakula
Saturday, December 7: ‘Timbuktu’ (2014) by Abderrahmane Sissako
Saturday, December 21: ‘Rams’ (2015) by Grimur Hakonarson
SPECS
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
Company%20profile
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse