All industries experienced disruption in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but for the aviation industry it was an unprecedented crisis.
“Heartbreaking” is how the group chief executive of Etihad Airways, Tony Douglas, described the moment the airline’s entire fleet was completey grounded on March 23, in an effort to stop the spread of coronavirus.
However, “it was absolutely the right thing to do”, said Mr Douglas, who has more than three decades of experience in the aviation industry.
Covid-19 has "eclipsed" all other crises faced by the sector because of the impact that it has had, he said.
In the last of the seven-part series of conversations for the My 2020 podcast, with leaders on the impact of Covid-19, Mr Douglas spoke of how the aviation industry has changed – and will have to continue to change.
He said there are so many negatives in 2020 but “you can learn an awful lot from negatives”.
He said that for Etihad, lockdown “gave us an opportunity to do a number of things that would have taken a lot longer and perhaps would have been more difficult”, including “Project Cabin ... surgical cleansing of every one of our aircraft and the biggest maintenance programme in Etihad’s history”.
As Covid-19 developed into a global health crisis, Mr Douglas said it became increasingly clear that leaders had to handle a "certain degree of ambiguity".
He added "the one thing you can't create is what I would describe as false certainty”.
Mr Douglas addressed the “hardest decision” he had to make in this difficult year, and that was “having to make some downsizing decisions within the [Etihad] family”.
He added “There have been announcements almost on a daily basis, from airlines all around the world, in regard to a fight for survival, and the need, therefore, to adjust size and posture. And of course, we're not immune to that [and] we've had to take responsible decisions”.
As Etihad reassessed its overall strategy, it has adjusted to become “a mid-sized carrier”.
Mr Douglas explained that means “we'll concentrate on the high performing new aircraft fleet that we've got, and making sure basically, we play the long game now.
"The byproduct of that is we have had to let many members of the Etihad family leave us ... and these people have been [making] outstanding contributions to our business.
"This was not of their making. And quite frankly, they didn't deserve it. But in order to preserve the business, in order to preserve the position where we can come out of this stronger through the other side, it was a necessary thing to do.”
Mr Douglas made clear the difficulty of this decision “because every one of these people that put their heart and their soul in supporting Etihad. These people all have families and personal tragedies were impacting many people at the same time”.
Looking to 2021, Mr Douglas said airlines had to continue to be agile and able to deal with the inevitable uncertainty facing the world. However, he said that he hoped “2021 will allow us to give a little bit more positive direction of how we're going to recover during next year”.
My 2020 is a seven-part series, hosted by Mina Al-Oraibi, The National's Editor-in-Chief, who speaks to leaders on how their lives and industries have been altered by Covid-19.
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VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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