Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
Boots on the ground
The boost Ukraine hoped for in its quest for long-term security commitments in the event of a ceasefire with Russia was delivered at a meeting on Tuesday in Paris.
Dozens of European leaders were hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, who with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer led the pledges by promising security areas with Franco-British forces.
US envoy Steve Witkoff, who was there with presidential son-in-law (other titles are not formalised) Jared Kushner, gave the clincher that Washington would stand behind protocols that required it to actively monitor the ceasefire and then step in to oversee the defence of Ukraine in the event of a breach. This delivery in person of US willingness to engage with European demands to protect Ukrainian sovereignty was described as game-changing by the assembled leaders.
Diplomatic activity on Ukraine peace talks has intensified in the past months, with the US holding separate meetings with Ukrainian and Russian negotiators but generally sidelining European states.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the meeting in the French capital as part of broader efforts to put together a common Ukrainian, European and US position that could then be taken to Russia.
Friedrich Merz, Germany's plain-speaking Chancellor, provided a cautionary reminder that a deal with the Kremlin is some way distant, estimating that it could be at least six months away.
President Vladimir Putin has shown no inclination to reach a final deal. Nevertheless, Mr Kushner said it was a "big, big milestone".
Another caveat is that the talks took place with the US moving to secure sovereignty over Greenland before the end of Mr Trump's term in the White House. A joint statement in support of Greenland and its home nation Denmark was issued on Tuesday by the big European nations.
It said security in the Arctic region must be achieved "in conjunction with Nato allies including the United States, by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders".
Sensing peace
As the Paris meeting got under way we had a look at the corrosive effect of competing visions, diverging threat perceptions and contrasting regional ambitions that will determine Ukraine's fate this year.
Ukraine has indicated that it is willing to accept a ceasefire – a concession that includes losing a fifth of its territory – provided it receives firm security guarantees from America that will deter any future Russian attack. The bigger question is whether Moscow wants peace while its leaders believe there is a chance of more land being seized, even if it comes at a terrible cost.
Added into the mix is America's more aggressive stance after its Venezuela operations and belligerent talk of annexing Greenland, which could well change geopolitical dynamics.
Analysts told The National that discussing a truce demoralises Ukrainian troops as the thinking is, “Why go to the front line and be the last to die in the war?”
Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine forum at the Chatham House think tank, recently returned from the country where she found the peace process was having a corrosive effect. “A lot of people are asking, why should I volunteer? Why should I mobilise if maybe peace is around the corner?” she said. “This is part of Russia’s game to undermine Ukraine internally.”
Bob Seely, a former British Conservative MP who visits Ukraine frequently, argued that dragging out talks helps Moscow by making the Kremlin appear reasonable, while also sowing division between Europe and the US and buying it time in the ground war.
Tehran turns
From within Iran comes a sense that this time things might be different. To me the defining driver of the 1979 revolution was not individual complaints but the broad mass turning on the system.
I got the same download on Tuesday from one of those clashing on the streets in the commercial heart of Tehran, the Grand Bazaar. “How can we have even the tiniest chance to live under these conditions? The economy is the trigger. Last time it was women’s clothing – the hijab issue – that was the trigger.
"We don’t want these people at all."
The protester described the brutality that met demonstrations.
“Around the Bazaar, many of us come to these demonstrations from other parts of the city when we hear they are happening. [Government forces] tried to use real weapons, real bullets,” said the protester.
"They attacked people, and before protesters could reach the subway station (Panzdah-e-Khordad), they threw tear gas inside.
"There were sick people there, children, and even people who were not protesting, who had gone into the station to avoid encountering the police.”
Security forces then entered the metro station. “They got inside the station and that was horrible. You know, it's a closed space. It's isolated and people couldn't breathe. That is really horrible," the protester said.
Read more
The National produces newsletters across an array of subjects. You can sign up here. To receive The Editor's Briefing, our Editor-in-Chief's weekly newsletter that rounds up the top stories, sign up here.
