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Energy crisis
For veterans of the 1970s oil shock in Europe, the idea of changing energy-use behaviour in the face of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a familiar ring.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government has already decided not to follow the path of lecturing the population, still less handing down restrictions. Working from home as they did during the Covid pandemic is an idea that is not passing ministers' lips.
In the UK Parliament on Tuesday, the challenge was laid down by Gareth Wyn Jones, emeritus professor at Bangor University, who said social changes could follow the crisis.
Former BP chief executive Nick Butler, who once advised Gordon Brown in No 10, says work from home would be a "perfectly sensible" measure.
“I don’t think we’ve yet seen the full impact on prices of this loss of supply,” he said on Tuesday.
Jeremy Hunt, the former chancellor who dealt with the last big energy shock, says the government has limited room for direct intervention.
Natural gas makes up about 30 per cent of the country's electricity generation, according to a report from the Institute for Government. As a core energy source it also sets the benchmark for the wider electricity price.
UK natural gas futures had risen to about 120.7 pence a therm this week, up from around 78 pence a therm before the conflict began. Liquified natural gas production sites in Qatar and other parts of the Middle East have been attacked by missiles, while exports from the region are trapped in the Hormuz shipping corridor.
Ireland's fury
Could Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin be the first national leader to lose his job over the fuel crisis hitting Europe as a result of the US-Israeli war with Iran?
Not today. An overnight confidence vote in parliament went the way of the government but the crisis has nonetheless dealt a series of blows to the leadership.
For someone as dedicated to his own political survival as Mr Martin, who first held a cabinet post in 1997, a loss of office now would seem a sudden twist of fate.
Nationwide protests at the government’s passivity in the face of a crisis just six weeks old certainly represents the first spark of trouble. And what’s happening in Ireland is almost bound to spread, not just in Europe but around the world in the coming weeks.
Ireland is fortunate as it has the spare resources to absorb the coming hit, but is Mr Martin moving fast enough to use the cash? Many other countries, as is plain at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings this week, cannot stretch subsidies for energy that far.
What the rising price of fuel does to Ireland is particularly worth watching. Retail prices of diesel are already up by two thirds since the war broke out. As a rural economy with only the most perfunctory public transport services, Ireland is exposed in visceral ways to the “pump-xiety” affecting most parts of the world.
Retreat time
Gen Sir Richard Barrons made key recommendations to the government to remedy the UK’s armed forces six months ago. If anything, the situation has gone backwards. His point is the world and UK allies are saying things need to be stronger in three to five years. Go faster and find more money sooner.
Like fellow Strategic Defence Review report author George Robertson, Mr Barrons has been perplexed at 10 Downing Street's delay to deciding on a spending plan is only making the situation worse.
“Our ability to defend our homeland, to make a contribution to Nato, is too thin,” the retired general told The National. “What actually has happened is that it [spending] went backwards with the failure to settle the defence investment plan, which should have been out in September and is still on the Prime Minister's desk.”
The UK military relies on forces “thin in terms of ammunition, stockpiles, money for training, spare parts and logistics”.
Taxing tussle
Aides around Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, have said she is considering making tax changes to make the country more attractive to high-earners. In particular the message is going out to those living the Gulf that the UK is "open for business at a moment when geopolitical risk" is high after the outbreak of the Iran War.
I'm not sure where that leaves the industrialist Jo Bamford, a UK resident looking at the exits to the US. His father Anthony Bamford owns the family digging equipment maker JCB, and the heir has said moving across the Atlantic may be the best way to protect jobs and prevent businesses in the company’s portfolio from being sold off when his father dies.
“The family tax … is a real problem,” Jo Bamford said, referring to the move to levy 20 per cent tax on family business assets worth more than £2.5 million.
“It could quite easily become an American business. I love being in Britain. I love being here. I love our factories here. But I would say to a political party of any stripe, look, there’s only so much you can ultimately do.”
Mr Bamford pointed out that the company already has operations around the world. It is a big player in India and has a plant in Texas.
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