Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
System risks
Welcome to the fourth heatwave of the summer. Unfortunately, it is one factor that is pushing the northern European energy system to the brink. Another is the prolonged crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which has now mushroomed into a double impasse with the Houthi threat to the Bab Al Mandeb strait.
With the summer driving season on us, pump prices are expected to reach a war-spurred peak on Friday of petrol and diesel prices reaching 160p and 180p a litre, respectively.
In Germany, the prolonged heatwave means the Rhine river’s levels could drop to an unprecedented low. This disrupts shipments of diesel and coal from the North Sea coast to heartland cities, pushing up prices and possibly leading to domestic shortages.
Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy, has looked at European gas storage levels of about 54 per cent in late July and warned that the buffer levels of 80 to 90 per cent are probably out of reach for the coming winter. Just as crude oil has surged above $100 a barrel, Dutch gas futures are beyond the €60 benchmark.
But there is much more to the energy crunch than this price surge. The Germans have a word for weather that is a particular danger to energy systems: Hitzeflaute (heat lull). Put simply, there can suddenly be too much solar power generation, while there's not enough wind.
On the face of it, solar output in the big European economies is flying. As the chart above by my colleague Isaac Arroyo shows, it is passing last year's peaks.
This is a great renewables success story. In the first three months of this year, renewables were 53.1 per cent of UK energy generation and 45.5 per cent of the EU total.
Hitzeflaute conditions cause extreme grid volatility in established electricity distribution systems. Across any day there can be significant fluctuations, with generators having to accept negative power prices during peak solar hours, only to surge to extreme highs in the evening when regular supplies from wind are missing and solar naturally declines.
In what seems to be perverse, it has become cost-effective for payments to flow from the subsidised renewable generators to distributors to take their electricity.
Switching off solar facilities or curtailment of renewable generation is controversial but has been on the rise in Germany as it tries to balance its gluts.
There are system dangers, too. Events in the UK on June 23 are still being thought over after the grid came perilously close to collapse. A whistleblower has said that only a phone call to France from the National Energy System Operator for interconnector supplies prevented power cuts.
For many reasons, Europe's energy supplies are hanging by a thread.
Four waves
One newspaper described what's going on as a “firewave”. France and neighbouring Spain are bracing for even more extreme temperatures from Wednesday.
These, alongside southerly winds and low humidity, are a brutal combination for firefighters. Spain's national weather service warned of extreme fire risks due to intense heat and dryness across the country, where eight major wildfires are active.
“Significant” flare-ups were seen at Lege-Cap Ferret in France on Tuesday, causing 4,000 people to be evacuated, authorities said.
Progress in fighting fires is vulnerable to heatwave setbacks, making the situation difficult, said Nathalie Delattre, senator for Gironde, which covers the city of Bordeaux in south-western France.
“Everything will depend on how the firefighters on the ground get on,” she said.
Ever bigger
A teenager accused of piloting a “mega dinghy” carrying 167 migrants across the English Channel on July 23 has been charged with endangering lives during a journey by sea.
Chan Mathok Atak, 19, from South Sudan, is accused of being at the helm of a boat that carried a Channel record number of migrants in a single craft, passing the previous high of 128.
The Margate Magistrates' Court has been told the rigid-hulled inflatable boat left the French coast last Thursday, with Mr Atak at the helm. It was bound for Dover but was intercepted by Border Force agents. Mr Atak has denied the charge.
The number of migrants who have crossed the Channel so far this year has reached 13,350, about 45 per cent lower than this time last year.
Bouncing back
Credit where credit is due: London authorities set out to do something about the city's decline. Some of this is cosmetic, such as the Mayor of London launching a task force to combat misinformation. But there is a lot that is real about the push to reclaim the city’s streets and, in doing so, to counter the avalanche of video footage telling a story of chaos.
Figures released last week explain why the authorities believe the tide is now turning. One blitz on crime has produced safer streets across Westminster, the borough that holds one of the world’s great concentrations of tourist attractions. Metropolitan Police statistics show offences there fell by more than a third over the past year – almost 14,000 fewer crimes. Phone thefts have slumped on a similar scale across the city. After a revamp of policing, 13,000 fewer mobile devices were stolen over the past year.
While there has been a storm of negativity about London, the city has been pretty resilient. Property developer London Square conducted an international survey that found 64 per cent of respondents in major global cities would like to live and work in London if they had the opportunity. Almost half said the city presented the best opportunities for skilled professionals.
The Aldar-owned firm’s report, What the World Thinks of London, found confidence in the UK was being rebuilt on the basis of an improving image.
“Perceptions of London also appear to be strengthening, with 39 per cent stating their perception over the last five years had improved, compared with just 14 per cent who believe it has worsened over the last five years,” the report said.
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