Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
Shortages abound
Leave aside the struggles facing Keir Starmer to reach his two-year anniversary in Downing St and look down the track.
To do so you might as well just turn the dial back to the 1970s. At least as far as inflation is concerned.
We are heading for what Trevor Greetham, head of multi-asset at Royal London, terms "spikeflation" and predictions abound that the UK is going to feel the pain more than many others.
Greetham is basing his analysis on the fact we’ve been here before. There is a sense of this being the 1970s revisited. Then, there were two inflation surges. The first was due to the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and oil embargo cutting off the flow of crude oil from the Gulf. In the US, inflation rose to 13 per cent. That was bad enough, but in the UK, it reached a whopping 27 per cent.
Then there was the Iranian revolution in 1979, which again sent the UK reeling into de-industrialisation and the double-digit inflation of the Thatcher era.
This time around the world inflation shock may be even more pronounced. Mr Starmer is the one charged, for now at any rate, with managing a way through.
On Tuesday, his government's Middle East Response Committee was busy war-gaming the economic fallout of the Iran conflict, promising targeted interventions that will not have a lasting impact on interest rates to avoid a 50-year scroll back in time.
Rebel yell
The House of Commons did vote to avoid a Boris Johnson-style committee mauling of Mr Starmer. In the Mandelson evidence sessions, anyone who expected Morgan McSweeney would eviscerate his former boss was disappointed. Instead, he accused Mandelson of not being open about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.
I had a look at how the decline and fall of Mr Johnson guides us in Mr Starmer's current troubles. But I concluded we may in fact be looking at John Major Mk II.
Whatever the case, if you thought April was bad for Mr Starmer, May is set to be worse. Only his obstinacy can see him through.
AI diplomacy
Walk around King's Cross in north London and the scaffolders can't keep up with US tech companies announcing new UK bases.
Not for the first time, you could be confused by the government's message concerning the industry. Tech Secretary Liz Kendall called in a key speech for “reducing over-dependencies” on overseas tech companies. “For Britain, AI sovereignty is about reducing over-dependencies and increasing resilience in key national strategic priorities," she said. "So we secure greater control and greater leverage over the issues that matter most.” To add the context of economic security, the speech was at the London defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute.
The UK would start backing “more British AI companies” and collaborating with “so-called middle powers” on the regulation of AI.
Critical minerals
The ability to keep supermarket shelves stocked, military capabilities high and technological advancements on track all boil down to reliable, dependable access to resources.
In the world now emerging, sovereignty will be measured by who controls the ground beneath their feet and the materials that power their future, writes Michael Wurmser, the founder of Norge Mining.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development on Tuesday revealed there had been a fivefold rise in export restrictions on critical raw materials since 2009.
This is a supply shock world that is changing very fast. Just look at the UAE's decision to close the door on Opec, the institution that emerged from the 1970s shutdown.
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