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Cracking on
It's just a few days until the Munich Security Conference, which has become something of an inquest into the top strategic issues of the day.
German officials say that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will make a root-and-branch speech about foreign policy and meet a host of government leaders. There will be a meeting of the E3 with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss the march to war in Iran.
While Mr Merz is not among those prepared to "write off" relations with the US, there will also be contact with partnerships beyond the EU and the transatlantic relationship.
Looking at the conference scene-setting report, Under Destruction, I wrote this week about Europe's need to get out of its current mindset.
Yes, the US under President Donald Trump is challenging Europe, not complementing and supporting it. It may even be, as a survey conducted for the report indicates, that the US is shaping up as a threat to Europe. American Vice President JD Vance used Munich last year to deliver hammer blows to Washington's relations with Europe.
Radical adaptation is surely possible. Some countries have risen recently with an entrepreneurial attitude to relationships around the world and are dealing with what is a global shift.
“Be more like Brazil, Indonesia or the Gulf countries” is something that is being whispered in the corridors of power these days.
Retired general Sir Nick Carter is leading a report for the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change this morning, calling for urgency in European rearmament. Sir Nick wants rapid collective action to deliver real military power to shore up Europe's position.
The report, backed by European defence institutes, sets five tests for the build-up. These are: the credible defence of Ukraine; degrading Russia; proven boost in military might; changing public support for the military; and moving on to a war footing.
Starmer's reprieve
Keir Starmer is going to Munich after a week from hell that saw his premiership on the line. Two years into the job, the Labour leader is under fire for his judgment and failure to deliver.
Having hit the buffers, Mr Starmer has now jettisoned his right-leaning chief of staff and architect of the 2024 election landslide, Morgan McSweeney. Chris Blackhurst writes he is likely to scorn triangulation and turn left. That means coming up with policies that will please the party and most Labour MPs – if not the right-wing UK media – and frustrate opposition Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, and the even-more-threatening Nigel Farage and his followers.
The Starmer government will play to McSweeney-free strengths – more Labour, less other. For Mr Starmer, who was a human rights lawyer and a North London red before his rapid, McSweeney-curated ascent, this might be less difficult than it sounds. Whether he has enough fiscal room is not a given – he has some capacity but not much.
It may prove to be something of a false dawn.
Last chance
Fast fact. About 91 per cent of property sales in Mayfair last year were of apartments or penthouses as modern developments were completed, the annual survey Mayfair in Minutes has found.
Conservation and planning rule changes mean there are no more mega-projects in the pipeline beyond those already well under way.
The super-apartments that often made a development profitable are no longer permitted and projects have accordingly ground to a halt.
“If you see that trophy penthouse you should buy it, because no new development is going to be able to have it,” Peter Wetherell, the head of the firm that produced the report, has said. "We have run out."
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