Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
Ceasefire at a crossroads
Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer has told The National that Israel is in breach of the ceasefire plan promoted by US President Donald Trump. The failure to open crossings, including those from Jordan into the West Bank, means the 20-point plan cannot move on from phase one, he said.
"We're clear that crossings, which were clearly envisaged to be opened under the 20-point plan, remain unopened," he told our correspondent Thomas Harding last night. "That is a vital part of phase one, and we need to see progress on that immediately.”
He was speaking to us a day after he met UAE Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh, with whom he said he had discussed these issues "intensively".
From the London vantage point, he added: “We can't see an overly restrictive approach to aid because that will prevent the necessary materials getting in at the speed required.”
UK Minister for the Middle East Hamish Falconer meets with Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh. Photo: Hamish Falconer / X
Asked about links between the Houthis in Yemen and the Sudanese Armed Forces, he told us of the importance of support for Yemen's Coastguard. Its recent interception of dual-use items is vital at this time.
"Now, I can't tell you where that high-tech equipment that could be used very much for military purposes, to whom it was intended to be delivered, but there clearly is a very significant problem in the area of advanced weaponry travelling across the Red Sea,” he said.
In her short time as Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper has made it clear she is “deeply worried” about atrocities in Sudan. She has now been presented with another factor in the conflict, with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood influencing the refusal of the Sudanese Armed Forces chief to entertain a ceasefire offer.
Ms Cooper is in continual contact with the US, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to encourage those ceasefire efforts.
Yesterday she spoke with US envoy Massad Boulos about how to bring about "a humanitarian truce to protect civilians and get aid in".
"Sudan needs a global push for peace," she said, before heading to Brussels where she will today attend a meeting of Nato foreign ministers.
She last night launched a global action coalition, warning of an “epidemic of violence” against women in wars, not least in the Sudan conflict.
Yvette Cooper attends meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels. EPA
Efforts to forge a GCC-UK trade deal were in the spotlight at an event to mark the UAE's Eid Al Etihad, formerly known as National Day, in London this week.
Minister of Trade Chris Bryant followed up his recent trip to Dubai with a plea to the UAE to help overcome residual resistance in the talks.
"I'm not going to name the other countries, I'm not going to name individuals that you need to speak to," he said. "But honestly, this has been taking us far too long. I really want us to get this trade deal done, because I think it's in our geostrategic interest.
"It's in our personal interests. It's in the interest of trade. It's in the interest of supporting the rules-based order around the world, which has enabled all of us to prosper."
Mr Bryant said the UAE was the UK's largest regional trading partner, with £25 billion ($33 billion) of bilateral trade in the year ending in June. He also said there were 5,000 British businesses operating in Dubai. He said he had argued for the UAE's accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership at a recent summit of the current members.
Among the British politicians at the 54th Eid Al Etihad commemorations was former deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, former chancellor of the exchequer Philip Hammond, and former foreign secretary and home secretary James Cleverly, as well as serving parliamentarians.
In Parliament on Wednesday, Mr Dowden asked Mr Falconer, the Middle East minister, to mark Eid Al Etihad by reaffirming the strategic relationship between the two countries.
"They are a key partner," Mr Falconer said of the UAE. "I welcome their investments all over the country and we will take the relationship from strength to strength."
Extreme blockades
I thought I'd relay some stark talk at Oxford Analytica Prospects 2026: Crises, Conflicts and Aftermaths about the resurgence of Islamist extremist groups in Africa.
The capitals of Somalia and Mali are being choked by insurgent groups.
"In Somalia, Al Shabab has been on the rise again, launching attacks in very close proximity to Mogadishu, having prosecuted very successful attacks and putting the army on the back foot," Oxford Analytica's analysts said. "Part of the reason for this being that the government right now is focused on its own internal problems."
Al Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nusrat Al Islam wal Muslim (JNIM) has meanwhile moved to choke off trade into Bamako and to put pressure on the military junta there to erode its political popularity.
"JNIM is definitely going from strength to strength militarily," the panel heard. "Neither of these groups have any intention of trying to seize power in these countries."
The more likely outcome predicted by the experts is a coup, rather than a takeover.
A Syrian-British business delegation made its first trip to Damascus last week, hoping to drum up investment from UK companies in Syria’s devastated economy.
Syria offers a “potentially high-return market”, despite a “challenging and high-risk context”, the new guidelines from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said.
The lifting of UK sanctions in March was intended to allow for “essential investment” in the country to support Syrians in rebuilding their devastated lives. This included reversing punitive measures on the Central Bank of Syria, the Ministry of Defence in Damascus and other key institutions.
Yet sanctions are still imposed on the export and import of luxury goods, diamonds and gold, although the Foreign Office has advised that individual traders could be eligible for an exemption on these.
What a pity there is no UK embassy there to get into the nitty-gritty of all this. London is unable to give a firm date for the reopening of its embassy in Damascus despite wanting to "normalise" its presence, a minister revealed last night.
Development Minister Jenny Chapman told the House of Lords that the need to ensure the embassy would be “successful and sustainable” was hanging over the process. It was a cautionary tale about severing diplomatic relations with other countries in future.
“The reason we’re so reluctant to withdraw from a country or city is because once you've withdrawn and once you no longer have that embassy, it's very difficult and always takes time to establish that presence,” Ms Chapman said.
Meanwhile, the UK government is relying on aid organisations and the UN to address humanitarian issues in Syria, such as displacement from the civil war and poverty from economic collapse.
“We do work through NGOs and the United Nations, and at the moment that's the right approach to take. We do look forward to a time when we can have a more normalised presence."
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Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany - At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people - Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed - Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest - He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
2018: Formal work begins
November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
PROFILE OF CURE.FIT
Started: July 2016
Founders: Mukesh Bansal and Ankit Nagori
Based: Bangalore, India
Sector: Health & wellness
Size: 500 employees
Investment: $250 million
Investors: Accel, Oaktree Capital (US); Chiratae Ventures, Epiq Capital, Innoven Capital, Kalaari Capital, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Piramal Group’s Anand Piramal, Pratithi Investment Trust, Ratan Tata (India); and Unilever Ventures (Unilever’s global venture capital arm)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
