Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
Perceptions game
Headlines in the UK show a country that's losing its top layer of wealth and earners. Often these reports reveal that mobile entrepreneurs or professionals are off to a new life in Dubai.
So we thought we would ask a representative sample of 2,000 people living in the UAE what their relative perceptions of the UK and UAE are.
The poll by Ipsos for The National highlights a complex, push-and-pull dynamic.
Many of them gave the rising cost of living, concerns about crime, and a perceived decline in safety as major reasons they were put off living in the UK.
Yet, emotional ties remain strong. Britain continues to hold value for its heritage, culture, education and deep sense of nostalgia, factors that still resonate with many, even as practical realities have weighed heavily in recent years.
Budget day
If the budget hits the wrong note, British taxpayers who have set up a new life in the UAE may find even more of their compatriots deciding it is time to move.
So, bring on the tax mezze. That is the wide-ranging yet familiar arrangement of revenue measures designed to close the hole in the UK budget.
That today is budget day is momentous in itself, given the build-up to the UK's most persistent political event of the year. And not in a good way.
What to expect. The stock of housing wealth in the country will be in focus as householders in the top bands will face new charges.
At one point the Treasury had been considering plans to raise money from a new tax on the sale of homes worth more than £500,000.
Government officials were said to be looking at a possible property tax, which would replace stamp duty on owner-occupied homes.
The "homes tax" would have disproportionately affected homeowners in London and the south-east, where properties are more expensive. The average UK house price stands at £282,766, compared with £673,000 in London.
It seems certain that some if not all of the income tax thresholds will be frozen, making for what commenters are calling the lost decade of rising personal taxation.
Mobile capital was given a wake-up call when an exit tax was mooted. Entrepreneurs are steeled for taxes on dividends to rise. For those able to put money away, there is a tighter cap on tax-free savings. The list is expected to be quite long, at a dozen or more increases.
Turmoil ensues
Cause and effect. Remember the move by the UK – as well as the US and the French – to cut foreign development spending?
Well, according to the august security think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the spillover is already happening. The analysts launched the Armed Conflict Study on Tuesday and pointed out that the rise in wars and deaths we are seeing was preceded by cuts to foreign aid.
It looks at the comeback of terrorism in the Horn of Africa and makes a direct link. "The cutting of aid has impacted Somalia greatly," said Benjamin Petrini, one of the team presenting the 2025 report. "The gains that were made against Al Shabab in 2023 have evaporated as Shabab now controls 30 per cent of the country, and more than that, it is being able to exploit the polarisation and the political rivalries."
By cutting aid, western states are undermining their traditional allies and allowing armed groups to increase their influence in internal power struggles, the analysts say. The vulnerability of regional capitals like Bamako in Mali to takeover is part of mounting evidence of this ripple effect.
Third way
The price tag is huge and the third runway for Heathrow Airport is a radical venture. With an overall cost of £50 billion, the runway construction will gobble up £33bn ($43 billion), involves moving a section of the M25 motorway and would nearly double the number of passengers to 150 million a year, cementing Heathrow's place as one of the busiest airports in the world.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander described the plan submitted by Heathrow Airport Limited as “the most credible and deliverable option” and said the government is acting “swiftly and decisively” to move it forward.
It includes a new T5X terminal as well as a new M25 tunnel and bridges to be built 130 metres west of the existing motorway.
A less expensive, £25 billion rival proposal from Arora Group, owned by billionaire Surinder Arora, was rejected. It would have involved building a shorter, 2,800-metre runway without affecting the M25.
The Transport Department wants planning permission secured by 2029 and flights to begin in 2035.
The new north-western runway will allow the airport to increase capacity to 756,000 flights a year, almost doubling the number of passengers a year from 84 million. By comparison, Dubai International Airport handled 92 million passengers in 2024.
The project will support 100,000 jobs and Ms Alexander said it would “attract international investment and boost Britain’s connectivity”.
While Mr Arora said he accepted the government’s announcement, he added that his proposal had been to “avoid the M25 and bring down both risks and costs of the expansion scheme”. He may seek involvement in later phases of the project nonetheless.
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