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Ceasefire at a crossroads

Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer has told The National that Israel is in breach of the ceasefire plan promoted by US President Donald Trump. The failure to open crossings, including those from Jordan into the West Bank, means the 20-point plan cannot move on from phase one, he said.

"We're clear that crossings, which were clearly envisaged to be opened under the 20-point plan, remain unopened," he told our correspondent Thomas Harding last night. "That is a vital part of phase one, and we need to see progress on that immediately.”

He was speaking to us a day after he met UAE Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh, with whom he said he had discussed these issues "intensively".

From the London vantage point, he added: “We can't see an overly restrictive approach to aid because that will prevent the necessary materials getting in at the speed required.”

Asked about links between the Houthis in Yemen and the Sudanese Armed Forces, he told us of the importance of support for Yemen's Coastguard. Its recent interception of dual-use items is vital at this time.

"Now, I can't tell you where that high-tech equipment that could be used very much for military purposes, to whom it was intended to be delivered, but there clearly is a very significant problem in the area of advanced weaponry travelling across the Red Sea,” he said.

Sudan ceasefire

In her short time as Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper has made it clear she is “deeply worried” about atrocities in Sudan. She has now been presented with another factor in the conflict, with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood influencing the refusal of the Sudanese Armed Forces chief to entertain a ceasefire offer.

Ms Cooper is in continual contact with the US, UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to encourage those ceasefire efforts.

Yesterday she spoke with US envoy Massad Boulos about how to bring about "a humanitarian truce to protect civilians and get aid in".

"Sudan needs a global push for peace," she said, before heading to Brussels where she will today attend a meeting of Nato foreign ministers.

She last night launched a global action coalition, warning of an “epidemic of violence” against women in wars, not least in the Sudan conflict.

Eid Al Etihad marked

Efforts to forge a GCC-UK trade deal were in the spotlight at an event to mark the UAE's Eid Al Etihad, formerly known as National Day, in London this week.

Minister of Trade Chris Bryant followed up his recent trip to Dubai with a plea to the UAE to help overcome residual resistance in the talks.

"I'm not going to name the other countries, I'm not going to name individuals that you need to speak to," he said. "But honestly, this has been taking us far too long. I really want us to get this trade deal done, because I think it's in our geostrategic interest.

"It's in our personal interests. It's in the interest of trade. It's in the interest of supporting the rules-based order around the world, which has enabled all of us to prosper."

Mr Bryant said the UAE was the UK's largest regional trading partner, with £25 billion ($33 billion) of bilateral trade in the year ending in June. He also said there were 5,000 British businesses operating in Dubai. He said he had argued for the UAE's accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership at a recent summit of the current members.

Among the British politicians at the 54th Eid Al Etihad commemorations was former deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, former chancellor of the exchequer Philip Hammond, and former foreign secretary and home secretary James Cleverly, as well as serving parliamentarians.

In Parliament on Wednesday, Mr Dowden asked Mr Falconer, the Middle East minister, to mark Eid Al Etihad by reaffirming the strategic relationship between the two countries.

"They are a key partner," Mr Falconer said of the UAE. "I welcome their investments all over the country and we will take the relationship from strength to strength."

Extreme blockades

I thought I'd relay some stark talk at Oxford Analytica Prospects 2026: Crises, Conflicts and Aftermaths about the resurgence of Islamist extremist groups in Africa.

The capitals of Somalia and Mali are being choked by insurgent groups.

"In Somalia, Al Shabab has been on the rise again, launching attacks in very close proximity to Mogadishu, having prosecuted very successful attacks and putting the army on the back foot," Oxford Analytica's analysts said. "Part of the reason for this being that the government right now is focused on its own internal problems."

Al Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nusrat Al Islam wal Muslim (JNIM) has meanwhile moved to choke off trade into Bamako and to put pressure on the military junta there to erode its political popularity.

"JNIM is definitely going from strength to strength militarily," the panel heard. "Neither of these groups have any intention of trying to seize power in these countries."

The more likely outcome predicted by the experts is a coup, rather than a takeover.

Cautionary tale

A Syrian-British business delegation made its first trip to Damascus last week, hoping to drum up investment from UK companies in Syria’s devastated economy.

Syria offers a “potentially high-return market”, despite a “challenging and high-risk context”, the new guidelines from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said.

The lifting of UK sanctions in March was intended to allow for “essential investment” in the country to support Syrians in rebuilding their devastated lives. This included reversing punitive measures on the Central Bank of Syria, the Ministry of Defence in Damascus and other key institutions.

Yet sanctions are still imposed on the export and import of luxury goods, diamonds and gold, although the Foreign Office has advised that individual traders could be eligible for an exemption on these.

What a pity there is no UK embassy there to get into the nitty-gritty of all this. London is unable to give a firm date for the reopening of its embassy in Damascus despite wanting to "normalise" its presence, a minister revealed last night.

Development Minister Jenny Chapman told the House of Lords that the need to ensure the embassy would be “successful and sustainable” was hanging over the process. It was a cautionary tale about severing diplomatic relations with other countries in future.

“The reason we’re so reluctant to withdraw from a country or city is because once you've withdrawn and once you no longer have that embassy, it's very difficult and always takes time to establish that presence,” Ms Chapman said.

Meanwhile, the UK government is relying on aid organisations and the UN to address humanitarian issues in Syria, such as displacement from the civil war and poverty from economic collapse.

“We do work through NGOs and the United Nations, and at the moment that's the right approach to take. We do look forward to a time when we can have a more normalised presence."

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