The devastation left by the typhoon in Tacloban in the Philippines – global warming may be increasing the intensity of such storms but no one can be sure as yet. Some scientists even believe the warming, manmade or not, is saving the planet from the next Ice Age, which is already over due. Bullit Marquez / AP Photo
The devastation left by the typhoon in Tacloban in the Philippines – global warming may be increasing the intensity of such storms but no one can be sure as yet. Some scientists even believe the warmiShow more

The choice may be global warming or a new Ice Age, say scientists



For many of us, the debate over the reality of climate change never goes beyond wondering if it can explain a recent bout of freakish weather.

Yet for many of the hundreds of thousands of Filipinos living in the UAE the debate has taken a tragically personal turn.

Yeb Sano, leader of the Philippines delegation to November’s UN climate conference in Warsaw, doubtless spoke for many when he implicated global warming for the Super Typhoon Haiyan, which has so far claimed more than 5,000 lives and left 500,000 homeless.

Mr Sano’s speech was made all the more poignant by the fact that exactly a year ago, his delegation appealed for action to combat global warming while his nation was being battered by another typhoon, causing a then-unprecedented disaster on the southern island of Mindanao.

He was close to tears as he called on those still sceptical about climate change to “get off your ivory tower and away from the comfort of your armchair” to witness the evidence. “We can stop this madness”, he said.

There can be no doubting his sincerity. Yet while he is not alone in seeing the disaster as proof of the reality of calamitous climate change, few scientists have been happy to make the connection.

They are all too aware of falling for the notorious fallacy known to logicians as post hoc, ergo propter hoc (after this, therefore because of this).

Many, perhaps most, scientists are convinced that global warming is taking place, and it seems that more violent storms are a natural consequence.

Higher temperatures mean more thermal energy being packed into the oceans, and more powerful convective currents, resulting in more powerful storms.

Yet scientists have long recognised that climatic phenomena are rarely that simple. In the case of tropical storms, the processes are still too poorly understood to make sense of the latest spate of severe storms.

Indeed, there is no clarity even about so basic a fact as whether such storms are becoming more common. While tropical cyclone intensity has increased since the 1970s, the trend is within the normal range of long-term historical records.

It does seem that such storms are causing more damage, but that could reflect the fact that there are just more people and buildings in harm’s way. The population of the Philippines has doubled since the mid-1970s, with some predicting it will exceed 100 million in the next year.

Yet whatever the reality of a link between climate change and Typhoon Haiyan, the chances of Mr Sano’s conference plea to combat global warming leading to action are low to zero.

Barely had he sat down than the government of Japan announced a new greenhouse gas emission target that allows an increase rather than a drastic cut over coming years. Other governments, most recently Australia and Canada, have made their lack of enthusiasm for drastic action no less clear.

So are we now condemned to seeing ever more climate-related tragedies? If so, the blame will certainly lie with mankind alone – at least, that is what environmentalists would have us believe. By disturbing the balance of nature, they argue, disaster will surely follow.

Once again, however, climate science is revealing a more complex reality. Evidence increasingly suggests that man-made global warming may actually be preventing a worldwide calamity, in the form of a new Ice Age.

Despite its pejorative image, the “greenhouse effect” of our atmosphere is all that stands between us and our being plunged into the bitter cold of the space around the Earth.

It keeps us warm by trapping the sun’s heat using molecules of certain gases – notably carbon dioxide and methane – in the atmosphere.

The heat we get from the sun ebbs and flows over millennia according to changes in the Earth’s orbit and orientation in space.

And calculations suggest we should have been heading back into a terrible Ice Age for the past few thousand years.

Fortunately this hasn’t happened – but why not?

Around a decade ago, a team of climate scientists led by Prof William Ruddiman of the University of Virginia suggested that humans may have been holding off the next Ice Age through our wilful production of greenhouse gases.

These are usually thought of as products of the Industrial Revolution. But Prof Ruddiman and his colleagues pointed out that basic agricultural practices, such as crop planting and deforestation, generate hefty amounts of carbon dioxide and methane – and perhaps even enough to cancel out the Big Chill that should have set in over the past few thousand years.

The idea has received a predictably frosty reception from environmentalists. But studies have since shown that greenhouse gases did indeed rise about 5,000 to 8,000 years ago – in line with the origins of large-scale agriculture in Asia and extensive deforestation in Europe.

Now fresh evidence that we humans are holding off an Ice Age has emerged. The journal Science has just published research by a team led by geochemist Prof Logan Mitchell at the University of Utah, Salt Lake City, who have compared methane levels trapped in ancient ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica.

The significance of the two locations is that human population growth has been different over the northern and southern hemisphere. So if methane levels have risen as the result of human activity – as Prof Ruddiman originally claimed – the ice cores from each hemisphere should show a different rate of increase in methane levels.

The team has now confirmed a substantial rise in methane in ice-core samples dating back up to 2,800 years. Crucially, however, the rise was bigger in the northern hemisphere, and could only be explained by including human activity – such as rice cultivation.

All this serves to underline the dangers of simplistic thinking in our approach to climate change. Trying to prevent it through drastic reduction of greenhouse gases may have disastrous consequences.

The cause of the calamities that have struck the Philippines is no more certain.

But when it comes to climate change, both science and history suggest adaptation is the surest route to safety.

Robert Matthews is visiting reader in science at Aston University, Birmingham, England

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Primera Liga fixtures (all times UAE: 4 GMT)

Friday
Real Sociedad v Villarreal (10.15pm)
Real Betis v Celta Vigo (midnight)
Saturday
Alaves v Barcelona (8.15pm)
Levante v Deportivo La Coruna (10.15pm)
Girona v Malaga (10.15pm)
Las Palmas v Atletico Madrid (12.15am)
Sunday
Espanyol v Leganes (8.15pm)
Eibar v Athletic Bilbao (8.15pm)
Getafe v Sevilla (10.15pm)
Real Madrid v Valencia (10.15pm)

Guide to intelligent investing
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Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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How to avoid crypto fraud
  • Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
  • Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Game Changer

Director: Shankar 

Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram

Rating: 2/5

Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017

Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free

Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa

Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia

MATCH INFO

Kolkata Knight Riders 245/6 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 214/8 (20 ovs)

Kolkata won by 31 runs

Things Heard & Seen

Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini

Starring: Amanda Seyfried, James Norton

2/5

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The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

MATCH INFO

Champions League quarter-final, first leg

Manchester United v Barcelona, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)

Match on BeIN Sports

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now

Opening Rugby Championship fixtures:Games can be watched on OSN Sports
Saturday: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney, 1pm (UAE)
Sunday: South Africa v Argentina, Port Elizabeth, 11pm (UAE)

Winners

Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)

Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)

TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski

Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)

Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)

Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea

Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona

Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)

Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)

Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)

Best National Team of the Year: Italy 

Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello

Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)

Player Career Award: Ronaldinho

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

The Case For Trump

By Victor Davis Hanson
 

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.