Stanley Cup play-offs preview: Capitals, the obvious, and Sharks, the surprise, for Finals

Rob McKenzie previews the Stanley Cup play-offs as the NHL has reached the conclusion of its regular season, and analyses how Canada wound up with no teams participating.

Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin, of Russia, celebrates after scoring against the St Louis Blues on Saturday in their NHL game. Jeff Roberson / AP / April 9, 2016

As the Stanley Cup play-offs begin on Wednesday night, one thing is agreed: the Washington Capitals are the team to beat in the East.

The West is going to be a brawl, though many people will forecast the finalist to be one of the conference’s three perennial powers: the Anaheim Ducks, the Los Angeles Kings or the defending champion Chicago Blackhawks.

I will pick one surprise team and one obvious team to fight their way to the final round.

The question in the east is: Who has the best chance of beating Washington?

The phrase one hears over and over when analysts talk about the Caps is “this is their year”. The Capitals piled up 120 points this season – easily the most in the league – and likewise led the way with a goal differential of plus-61.

The Washington captain Alex Ovechkin, fresh off another 50-goal season, is the most exciting player in hockey and wears a determination that was absent in his younger years. This new resolve came to the fore in last year’s second-round series against the New York Rangers, when he battled to the last as the Caps pushed New York to overtime of Game 7.

The Caps’ Braden Holtby is one of the best goalies in the game, and tied a league record with 48 wins this season. Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom and TJ Oshie ensure that the scoring burden does not rest too heavily on Ovechkin’s shoulders. Justin Williams has brought play-off mettle from his years in LA.

But if one team can stop the Caps from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, that team is the New York Rangers.

The Rangers have won six play-off rounds in the past three years; only Chicago have won more. The Rangers are highly disciplined and have “greasy” players like Mats Zuccarello who can gum up the works of a talented rival. They play play-off hockey all season long. And their goalie Henrik Lundqvist can be counted on for heroics.

Still with the East, the Florida Panthers are loaded with talent – they feel like the Blackhawks in 2009, ready to burst out – but this could be the year they pick up play-off experience and learn from defeat rather than inflict it.

So here is the obvious choice: Caps to win the East.

In our season preview back in October I picked Washington to beat the Calgary Flames in the Cup Finals. Calgary, alas, are not even in the West play-offs. The team were undone by bad goaltending.

The West is wide open. Besides the big three, the Dallas Stars also bear consideration – their 267 goals constituted the league’s most potent offence. But instead I will go with a team that I have hated for years but who have changed their game from soft to tough: the San Jose Sharks.

A year ago, this bunch was a steaming mess. Joe Thornton was feuding with management after it stripped him of the team’s captaincy. The Sharks would miss the play-offs for the first time since 2003.

The best thing about missing the play-offs was that it averted yet another San Jose post-season choke job. The Sharks are famous for having strong regular seasons and then wussing out in the play-offs. In 2014, they blew a 3-0 series lead against the Los Angeles Kings in an especially pathetic collapse.

This year’s Sharks have thicker skin. Around halfway through the regular season, old and new somehow suddenly meshed on the San Jose roster. Stepping to the fore were younger guys who balance character and talent like Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski (over the past three seasons, only Ovechkin has scored more regular-season goals than Pavelski). San Jose’s old stars – Thornton and Patrick Marleau – have thrived now that they are no longer expected to lead. Amazing stat: Thornton had a point in every single one of San Jose’s last 34 wins of the season.

On the other hand, the Sharks have a goalie in Martin Jones who, while strong in the regular season, has never won an NHL play-off game.

Stanley Cup prediction: Washington over San Jose in six

Oh, Canada

For the first time in 46 years there are no Canadian teams in the NHL play-offs.

And that’s a good thing.

Not so good for now, but good in the long run, because it means all seven northern clubs are in the mix for the upcoming draft’s top spots, and the draft is the surest way to obtain top talent.

So what went wrong this season?

The Montreal Canadiens should have been the best Canadian team but were undone by an injury to Carey Price, world’s best goalie.

The Calgary Flames made the second round of the play-offs last year but could not find decent goalkeeping to save their life.

The Vancouver Canucks had their perennial problems – more talent than guts.

The Ottawa Senators and Winnipeg Jets backslid after squeaking into the play-offs last year.

The Edmonton Oilers were bottom-feeders but are poised for very good things with young superstar Connor McDavid on the roster.

And the Toronto Maple Leafs were awful, but awful is better than the millennia of endless, dungeon-like mediocrity that preceded it (this cannot be exaggerated). The team cleared out the old guard (Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf) and are making room for the new.

Overall, there is a 66 per cent chance that one of the Canadian teams will win the draft lottery and thereby get their hands on the top prospect Auston Matthews, a high-scoring centreman.

Next season – with the possibility of shiny new draft choices, with the extra recovery time from missing the post-season, and with Price returning from injury – all the Canadian teams should be better.

Well, all except Vancouver. The Canucks’ problem is that the Sedin twins are the team’s anchor in senses both good (they keep things steady) and bad (they prevent progress). Vancouver will not be a good team until the Sedins are gone. With the Sedins, Vancouver are the new Toronto.

For what it is worth, the last time the play-offs were a Canada-free zone was in 1970. And the year after, Montreal won the Cup – with five more to follow before the decade was out.

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