The surge of violence among Palestinians in the occupied territories, particularly East Jerusalem, is leaderless, spontaneous and concentrated among youths. It was unanticipated, in that no one predicted the specific time, place or nature of the spasm. But it’s hardly surprising.
The context is the utter desperation of the Palestinian cause. Palestinians are convinced that Israel has abandoned any notion of a two-state solution, if it ever genuinely considered it in the first place (which most Palestinians very much doubt). Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government seems determined to expand the occupation and the settlements, and to be adamantly opposed to Palestinian statehood.
Palestinians, especially the youth, have also despaired about their own leadership. They don’t believe negotiations can succeed. And they have learnt that United Nations or International Criminal Court initiatives don’t change anything on the ground, or, at best, will yield results over many years but have no immediate impact.
They also understand that the Hamas approach of conflict only yields greater suffering, and that in any violent confrontation Palestinians invariably suffer more than Israelis. And they are convinced that the United States lacks the will to confront Israel over the occupation in general and settlements in particular. Finally, they understand that most other Arab societies are wrapped up in urgent crises such as Syria, Iraq and Libya, and the fight against ISIL. Their cause may not be abandoned, but Palestinians know it is very much on the Arab back burner.
Palestinians have rarely felt so isolated and bereft of options. The era when economic and social progress might have compensated for slow progress towards independence and an end to the occupation has passed. Former prime minister Salam Fayyad was ousted and his state and institution building programme abandoned by the Palestinian Authority and international community.
Palestinians would be wise to resurrect Mr Fayyad’s policies, as many lecture them to do. But the Israeli and western cut-off of aid to the PA after the UN initiatives was crucial to discrediting and ultimately destroying his constructive policies and forcing Mr Fayyad's resignation. Moreover, that programme was always a parallel track to diplomatic and political progress towards independence. His bottom-up approach was never considered to be a substitute for top-down efforts to end the occupation, as Mr Fayyad himself always emphasised.
The current combination of political paralysis, diplomatic impasse, intensifying occupation, international disengagement, and social and economic dysfunctionality means that many, especially young, Palestinians have a keen sense of nothing left to lose.
Most Palestinians no longer feel like stakeholders in almost any aspect of the status quo. All that most Palestinians can really believe in these days is their own nuclear family, and, perhaps, their extended family or village community. Palestinians don’t, and just can’t, believe in their discredited national leadership, extremist groups like Hamas, or any other broader social or political grouping.
The Israeli message to Palestinians is: “You are defeated and subjugated, now accept your lot.” Palestinian political parties are essentially saying: “We are your champions, but we have no idea how to make your lives better or what to do to advance your national agenda.”
The world community is basically saying: “We will get back to you when Israel seems interested in diplomacy, otherwise here are some palliative words and minimal aid.” The Arab world has no real message for the Palestinians, being profoundly wrapped up in other matters.
All of this explains why Israelis and Palestinians might be on the verge of either another explosion of violence, or, more probably, a “new normal” characterised by tit-for-tat violence that does not constitute a gigantic eruption but a new daily grind of reciprocal brutality.
The occupation essentially is a system of discipline and control of millions of disenfranchised people by a foreign army whose main task is to facilitate and protect a predatory programme of ongoing and illegal colonisation. This reality is ugly, and many westerners recoil from acknowledging it. But it is a fact. For most Palestinians living under the occupation, this core reality now defines everything, since there is no longer anything to offset the violence built into the occupation.
Consequently, violence – whether from Palestinian youths, militant groups like Hamas, settler vigilantes or Israel’s army – almost exclusively characterises the relationship between these two peoples at almost every register. The occupation is inherently violent. It is impossible to imagine a “peaceful” settlement project. The settlements depend on a social order defined by the constant threat of violence.
The emerging “new normal” – characterised on the Palestinian side by spontaneous acts of violence mainly by youths, and on the Israeli side by settler vigilantes and trigger-happy soldiers – is yet another reminder that the status quo is neither manageable nor containable.
In the absence of any framework or timeline for ending it, this violent occupation will inevitably erupt into ever more dangerous spasms of physical confrontation with potentially devastating consequences for the region and the world.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
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