Rebel fighters of Jaysh Al Islam in the Eastern Ghouta of Damascus. Amer Almohibany / Reuters
Rebel fighters of Jaysh Al Islam in the Eastern Ghouta of Damascus. Amer Almohibany / Reuters
Rebel fighters of Jaysh Al Islam in the Eastern Ghouta of Damascus. Amer Almohibany / Reuters
Rebel fighters of Jaysh Al Islam in the Eastern Ghouta of Damascus. Amer Almohibany / Reuters

Saudi effort isn’t the beginning of the end of Assad


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Saudi Arabia’s role in the Syrian conflict has been the subject of much speculation. Are the recent rebel gains in northern, central and southern Syria part of an escalation against Iranian-backed forces? Do these gains mark the beginning of the end for Bashar Al Assad?

Saudi Arabia has previously supported large-scale operations against the Syrian regime but those operations lacked a strategy. High expectations during such operations often led to disappointment and played into the regime’s hands.

It is clear that this time is different. Conversations within policy circles in the Gulf indicate that the regime’s downfall is not necessarily the goal right now. Nor is it to compel the Assad regime to negotiate. Instead, the goal is simply to project power through the rebels against Iran’s allies.

There is also an intention to strengthen Sunni militias to build stability. Various political and military forces within the country will be working towards one goal despite their different allegiances. Beyond influence, opposition forces will be backed to potentially lead future Syria. To achieve these goals, Saudi Arabia is working closely with Turkey and Qatar.

However, the gains made by the rebels in the north have little to do with Saudi Arabia. Turkey and Qatar have provided financial support to their allies. For more than a year, aid to groups widely known to be supported by Turkey and Qatar was blocked because of resistance from the US and Saudi Arabia. That changed recently and the rebels have since gained momentum.

There have been other key factors. Rebels in the north are working with more harmony than ever before. Ideologically aligned forces also worked in separate groups but closely coordinated with others through separate operations rooms.

The growing strength and coordination among the rebels comes amid a reverse trend within the regime forces. Even pro-government media channels have repeatedly acknowledged the gains have caused panic among the regime’s support base. Infighting has also been reported. Syrian army officials have complained of the Iranian role in weakening the military in favour of the National Defence Forces, a parallel force directly funded by Tehran.

These factors make Riyadh’s role more relevant. The kingdom has a plan to bring together various opposition forces against the regime.

In public, the plan involves political forces to eventually negotiate with the regime. But it also involves well-supplied rebel factions to fight the regime and aligned militias in the country. Syrian rebels led by Jabhat Al Nusra are already fighting Hizbollah in the Qalamoun region near Lebanon.

Division of labour is the new name of the game. Turkey and Qatar will coordinate with their allies on the ground and Saudi Arabia will directly assist internationally recognised moderate forces. The political opposition will be pressured to set its house in order and work together to formulate a more credible force to coordinate and mediate among various rebel factions.

After the dismantling of Hazm Movement and the Syrian Revolutionary Front from northern Syria, Saudi Arabia’s influence among the rebels is mostly in the south. Last week, Jaish Al Islam, a faction that operates mostly in the agricultural belt surrounding Damascus known as the Ghouta that is backed by Riyadh, put out an impressive military parade to celebrate the graduation of 1,700 fighters.

The display, a few kilometres from the presidential palace, added insult to injury for the regime. The president of the opposition’s National Coalition said this week that the unofficial ban on the rebels receiving anti-aircraft weapons will come to an end, a move that might shift the conflict dynamics quickly and lead to the creation of de facto safe havens in northern and southern Syria.

Despite Riyadh’s intentions, the defeat of the regime is not a foregone conclusion. The effort by Saudi Arabia might still be short-lived. The rebels require a much more long-term effort than coordination and increased weapon supplies. But the conflict is already changing and a new reality will soon emerge.

Hassan Hassan is a Middle East analyst and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror

On Twitter: @hxhassan

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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The biog

Favourite books: 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg: A Life' by Jane D. Mathews and ‘The Moment of Lift’ by Melinda Gates

Favourite travel destination: Greece, a blend of ancient history and captivating nature. It always has given me a sense of joy, endless possibilities, positive energy and wonderful people that make you feel at home.

Favourite pastime: travelling and experiencing different cultures across the globe.

Favourite quote: “In the future, there will be no female leaders. There will just be leaders” - Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook.

Favourite Movie: Mona Lisa Smile 

Favourite Author: Kahlil Gibran

Favourite Artist: Meryl Streep

Copa del Rey

Barcelona v Real Madrid
Semi-final, first leg
Wednesday (midnight UAE)

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

Mountain Classification Tour de France after Stage 8 on Saturday: 

  • 1. Lilian Calmejane (France / Direct Energie) 11
  • 2. Fabio Aru (Italy / Astana) 10
  • 3. Daniel Martin (Ireland / Quick-Step) 8
  • 4. Robert Gesink (Netherlands / LottoNL) 8
  • 5. Warren Barguil (France / Sunweb) 7
  • 6. Chris Froome (Britain / Team Sky) 6
  • 7. Guillaume Martin (France / Wanty) 6
  • 8. Jan Bakelants (Belgium / AG2R) 5
  • 9. Serge Pauwels (Belgium / Dimension Data) 5
  • 10. Richie Porte (Australia / BMC Racing) 4
WORLD CUP SEMI-FINALS

England v New Zealand

(Saturday, 12pm UAE)

Wales v South Africa

(Sunday, 12pm, UAE)

 

No Shame

Lily Allen

(Parlophone)

The low down on MPS

What is myofascial pain syndrome?

Myofascial pain syndrome refers to pain and inflammation in the body’s soft tissue. MPS is a chronic condition that affects the fascia (­connective tissue that covers the muscles, which develops knots, also known as trigger points).

What are trigger points?

Trigger points are irritable knots in the soft ­tissue that covers muscle tissue. Through injury or overuse, muscle fibres contract as a reactive and protective measure, creating tension in the form of hard and, palpable nodules. Overuse and ­sustained posture are the main culprits in developing ­trigger points.

What is myofascial or trigger-point release?

Releasing these nodules requires a hands-on technique that involves applying gentle ­sustained pressure to release muscular shortness and tightness. This eliminates restrictions in ­connective tissue in orderto restore motion and alleviate pain. ­Therapy balls have proven effective at causing enough commotion in the tissue, prompting the release of these hard knots.

On Instagram: @WithHopeUAE

Although social media can be harmful to our mental health, paradoxically, one of the antidotes comes with the many social-media accounts devoted to normalising mental-health struggles. With Hope UAE is one of them.
The group, which has about 3,600 followers, was started three years ago by five Emirati women to address the stigma surrounding the subject. Via Instagram, the group recently began featuring personal accounts by Emiratis. The posts are written under the hashtag #mymindmatters, along with a black-and-white photo of the subject holding the group’s signature red balloon.
“Depression is ugly,” says one of the users, Amani. “It paints everything around me and everything in me.”
Saaed, meanwhile, faces the daunting task of caring for four family members with psychological disorders. “I’ve had no support and no resources here to help me,” he says. “It has been, and still is, a one-man battle against the demons of fractured minds.”
In addition to With Hope UAE’s frank social-media presence, the group holds talks and workshops in Dubai. “Change takes time,” Reem Al Ali, vice chairman and a founding member of With Hope UAE, told The National earlier this year. “It won’t happen overnight, and it will take persistent and passionate people to bring about this change.”