Now that a hostage-taking crisis is dominating international relations with Iran, the timing is right for a permanent shift in the country’s reputation in Europe.
Recall the tale of the scorpion and the frog. The frog is carrying the scorpion across the river when the insect bites the reptile. Why? asks the frog. Because that’s what I do, comes the reply.
Boris Johnson must be feeling just like that dying frog. The British foreign secretary cudgels up to defend the Iranian nuclear deal decertified by Donald Trump. He was planning a trip to the US Congress, plus appearances on Fox News, to push for continuity as a great strategic act.
Then an unwitting newspaper journalist persuaded an MP to ask a question about Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, the woman held in Tehran since 2016, and the foreign secretary fluffed the answer. The scorpions in Iran's judiciary bit, setting up a bilateral crisis that exposed British diplomatic weakness.
For those at the nub of Iranian aggression in the region, there is little that can be surprising in any revelations in Europe. Iran has already forfeited its reputation in the Middle East. It is now gambling with its gains under the 2015 accord.
The nuclear deal is the product of a fundamental misreading of the Iranian regime that dates back to its earliest days. This is an argument that the Iranian establishment is composed of factions. Efforts to seek out moderates means nurturing contacts, making commercial concessions and promoting cultural outreach.
Looking behind the regime, western politicians place great faith in a youthful demographic bulge. Over time the gamble is that such pressures will tilt the country in a new direction.
Yes, there are tricky calculations. The tenure of the hardline supreme leader, for example, and the question of who comes next.
This generational leap of faith is nothing more than powerful myth. At the opposite pole are those who see the country in the hands of an enduring cult that pursues absolutist goals.
It is important to remember the Iranian revolution established itself as a radical republic. It is dedicated to overthrowing the existing order. That very impulse is written into its backbone.
Why should a radical regime evolve over time into something more pliable and amenable to the world around it?
Hostage-taking works for the Iranians. The 444-day crisis with America was not an unalloyed success for Tehran but it did grant it an enduring identity.
Just over a decade ago I was on a BA flight that brought 15 members of the British military home from Tehran after they had been seized on the Shatt al-Arab and held by the IRGC.
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Behind the flimsy business class curtain, the young sailors and marines were utterly shell-shocked. Their bewilderment at the events of a two-week stay in Iran was entirely natural. They had suffered the humiliation of televised confessions. Iranian TV trumpeted a made-up British apology.
What was remarkable about covering the crisis in the Iranian capital was that it was viewed there as a piece of routine business.
There was talk about moderates pushing to salvage Iran’s reputation by letting the 15 go. Vastly more important was the hard-edged exchange of concessions. The US-led coalition gave up a senior Iranian operative seized at the consulate in Erbil. As I was later to witness, river patrols out of Basra by the British were severely curtailed afterwards. The benefits for Iran at the time were both immediate and ongoing.
The rewards for Iran have escalated, especially since the signing of the 2015 nuclear agreement. And in ways that make more episodes inevitable.
Barack Obama ordered heavy-lift cargo planes to fly US$400m into Iran when Washington sought the release of a Washington Post reporter and three other Americans last year. The tranche was part of a $1.7 billion release of frozen assets triggered by the nuclear deal.
A few months after that notorious incident a senior Iranian official – one of the moderates – gave a briefing in London. In short, Britain was not living up to the nuclear deal. The banks of the City of London were not funding investment and trade with Iran as Tehran expected following the deal. Britain was holding Iranian funds.
The tantrum was a signal of a coming showdown. Trouble that has now come to a head.
With the foreign secretary under pressure over Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, British officials announced last week they would look at release £400 million (Dh1.94bn) paid upfront by the Shah for British tanks that were not delivered after the revolution. The money has been held under sanctions on military-related deals with the regime.
No amount of diplomatic engagement can change the fact hostage-taking works for Iran. Raising the cost of its actions is surely better than giving in to its demands.
MATCH INFO
Delhi Daredevils 174-4 (20 ovs)
Mumbai Indians 163 (19.3 ovs)
Delhi won the match by 11 runs
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Key recommendations
- Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier
- Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
- Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
- More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
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Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
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UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
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Dust storm
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- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Crazy Rich Asians
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan
Four stars
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
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Profile
Name: Carzaty
Founders: Marwan Chaar and Hassan Jaffar
Launched: 2017
Employees: 22
Based: Dubai and Muscat
Sector: Automobile retail
Funding to date: $5.5 million
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Golden Shoe top five (as of March 1):
Harry Kane, Tottenham, Premier League, 24 goals, 48 points
Edinson Cavani, PSG, Ligue 1, 24 goals, 48 points
Ciro Immobile, Lazio, Serie A, 23 goals, 46 points
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Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
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Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances