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The death of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's most senior commander, could prove to be a pivotal moment in the Gaza-Israel conflict after Israeli officials confirmed he was killed on Thursday.
The elimination of Mr Sinwar, the Hamas leader with 'total control,' hands an opportunity to his nemesis, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Israeli leader could use the demise of the man behind the October 7 killings to strike a ceasefire and peace deal. However, there are fears that this moment could be lost, leading the region to descend into more bloodshed, with the possibility that the remaining hostages are executed in revenge.
There is also the possibility that Mr Sinwar’s death may have no impact on the conflict, as he could be hailed as a heroic martyr who died with this troops on the frontline.
Peace deal opportunity
The Hamas commander and political leader was killed, alongside two other fighters, in what was possibly a mortar strike or tank round amid the ruins of Gaza.
Sources have told The National that dental records confirmed that the body retrieved by Israeli forces was Mr Sinwar.
It is unclear what impact Mr Sinwar’s death will have on the conflict but Gershon Baskin, a leading peace negotiator with Hamas, suggested that a deal could be struck with Khalil Al Hayya, former chief of Hamas’s negotiating team.
“Sinwar had total control because of his known brutality and if he's gone every possibility is open, such as the people in Doha now deciding that the war has to end and agreeing to negotiate a deal to the more extremist saying ‘we're willing to fight to the last Gaza’,” said Mr Baskin.
“If Israel wanted a deal now with Sinwar dead, it's easier for Netanyahu to declare victory and work out a deal to end the war.”
It is also understood that Khaled Mashal, Hamas’s most senior surviving political figure also in Doha, might use the opportunity to take back power after he was passed over for promotion following the assassination of the leader Ismail Haniyeh in July.
It is very difficult to know who to negotiate with in Gaza as it could well be that the next most senior person, Mr Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, may also be dead along with many senior Hamas commanders.
Mr Baskin, who gained the trust of Hamas as the lead negotiator freeing Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2011, said a deal he had worked through with the group last month could still hold, with Hamas willing to transfer governance and security in Gaza to a non-Hamas civilian government.
Biden for peace
There are also calls from Washington for President Joe Biden to seize the opportunity to put pressure on Mr Netanyahu to use the moment to seek peace.
“The question now facing the Biden administration, does this unexpected situation create an opportunity for them to really press the Israelis and say it's time to end this thing, it's time to agree to a ceasefire?” said Yousef Munayyer, chief of Palestine-Israel Programme at the Arab Centre in Washington.
But he added that given the two leader’s past actions “they will miss this opportunity to end the war and it will continue and likely expand”.
Khaled Elgindy, of the Middle East Institute in Washington, said that as the October 7 mastermind Mr Sinwar’s death was more significant than Nasrallah’s.
“He's the leader on the ground in Gaza, which is what matters,” Mr Elgindy said. “And so arguably now the Israelis have their victory narrative. Certainly Washington is going to push in that direction. They can declare victory and move toward a ceasefire.”
Hostage execution
Mr Baskin said his main concern was the fate of the estimated 101 remaining hostages. “This could move on a scale to them all being executed or to individual groups who are holding hostages negotiating separate deals.”
A senior Hamas contact had informed him last month that they required three to five days of ceasefire to gather all the information on where all the hostages were being hidden if there were to be freed.
“So it's impossible to predict, not knowing who's holding the hostages, what their level of loyalty is to Sinwar or to Hamas in general, and how they'll respond to the death of Sinwar,” he added.
David Harden, former USAID mission director for the West Bank and Gaza in the Obama administration, said that the killing presented “an opportunity to de-escalate” but that depended on what happened to the hostages.
“Does Hamas kill them, or are they open for a deal?” Mr Harden said. “Sinwar’s death is a big deal and could play out positively.”
"But If Hamas begins to execute hostages, then that's going to compel a reaction. If Hamas decides that they are interested in striking a deal, then there will be more pressure, and American pressure on Netanyahu to strike a deal."
He added that it could also influence Israel’s response to Iran’s October 1 missile attack making it “more muted rather than an escalation”.
View from Israel
In Israel there was jubilation as the Hamas leader was the face of the October 7 attacks and his resilience in the face of Israel’s military machine was a growing frustration.
If Sinwar is dead, Mr Netanyahu, whose popularity has increased after military successes against Hezbollah, will be able to celebrate yet another major military success, but this time in Gaza, which has proved by far the trickiest arena for Israel in the war.
But he will also come under pressure to finally get the hostages released.
A group representing the majority of hostage families welcomed the “elimination” of Mr Sinwar after reports first emerged, while also urging the government to “[leverage] this major achievement to secure hostages' return”.
“We express deep concern for the fate of the 101 men, women, elderly and children still held captive by Hamas in Gaza,” it added.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid made a similar call for a “decisive move”, asking the government to “strive for a comprehensive deal and also offer monetary rewards and safe passage to anyone who brings hostages to our forces”.
More war
Tal Hagin, a leading Israeli open-source intelligence analyst who believed the footage of Mr Sinwar’s body was authentic, said the death may have no impact as the right-wingers in the government still wanted to annex Gaza, the hostages might remain detained and Hamas still remained a fighting force.
“There's no victory there for any side there,” he added.
It could also help Hamas’ propaganda by showing that he was not sheltering underground using hostages as human shields nor was he killed by Israeli intelligence.
“It’s really good propaganda for Hamas because it essentially showcases a leader who was with his fighters in the front,” he said.
He added that any benefits would be “short-lived” and pointed to the example of Hezbollah being able to continue fighting despite the pager bombs and assassination of their leader Nasrallah.
Robert Tollast contributed to this report from Abu Dhabi.
