Iran's top four oil clients have cut their imports from the Middle Eastern nation by more than a fifth in the first six months of the year, but are soon to face increased pressure from the United States to reduce shipments still further.
The cuts by China, India, Japan and South Korea point to the United States' and European Union's success in reducing Tehran's vital oil cash flows as they try to force Iran to halt a disputed nuclear programme. Oil shipments from Iran are down about 60 per cent on average compared to pre-sanction levels.
US lawmakers now want to further toughen the measures that have cost Iran billions of dollars a month in lost revenue, with a goal to squeeze exports to a trickle.
"There is continuing pressure from the United States to reduce Iranian crude imports," said Robin Mills, chief analyst at Manaar Energy Consulting. "They are coming up with a fresh bunch of sanctions to reduce Iranian crude exports further."
The US and EU sanctions have made it difficult for Iran's top clients to insure oil shipments and refineries processing Iranian crude, and forced them to find new ways to pay Tehran because it has no access to international banking networks.
The four Asian countries imported 961,127 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude in the January-June period, down from 1.23 million bpd a year ago, according to official government data and tanker arrival schedules given to Reuters, with the largest percentage cuts coming from India and South Korea.
Japan, the last of the four to report its oil imports for June, imported 185,946 bpd of Iranian crude in the first half of the year, data from the country's economy, trade and industry ministry showed on Wednesday, down 22.5 per cent.
That is less than India's cuts in Iranian oil imports of 43 per cent over the first half of the year and South Korea's cuts of 27 per cent, but more than China's reduction of about 2 per cent from the same six months last year.
"China will be key to the success of the sanctions," Mr Mills said. "They have cut the least and their cuts have been more token. They will be key if the United States wants to cut exports further."
Replacement oil for the lost Iranian barrels have come from Iraq, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Latin America and Africa.
China and India, Iran's top two customers increased their imports from Iraq by 38 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively, over the first six months of the year compared with a year ago.
India increased its imports from Latin America over the January to June period by 66 per cent, raising the region's share of overall Indian imports to 19 per cent from 12.6 per cent.
* Reuters
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Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
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- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
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- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
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Rating: 4.5/5
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
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Dubai Bling season three
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Rating: 1/5
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THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
On Women's Day
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Opening Rugby Championship fixtures:Games can be watched on OSN Sports
Saturday: Australia v New Zealand, Sydney, 1pm (UAE)
Sunday: South Africa v Argentina, Port Elizabeth, 11pm (UAE)
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
Pupils in Abu Dhabi are learning the importance of being active, eating well and leading a healthy lifestyle now and throughout adulthood, thanks to a newly launched programme 'Healthy Lifestyle'.
As part of the Healthy Lifestyle programme, specially trained coaches from City Football Schools, along with Healthpoint physicians have visited schools throughout Abu Dhabi to give fun and interactive lessons on working out regularly, making the right food choices, getting enough sleep and staying hydrated, just like their favourite footballers.
Organised by Manchester City FC and Healthpoint, Manchester City FC’s regional healthcare partner and part of Mubadala’s healthcare network, the ‘Healthy Lifestyle’ programme will visit 15 schools, meeting around 1,000 youngsters over the next five months.
Designed to give pupils all the information they need to improve their diet and fitness habits at home, at school and as they grow up, coaches from City Football Schools will work alongside teachers to lead the youngsters through a series of fun, creative and educational classes as well as activities, including playing football and other games.
Dr Mai Ahmed Al Jaber, head of public health at Healthpoint, said: “The programme has different aspects - diet, exercise, sleep and mental well-being. By having a focus on each of those and delivering information in a way that children can absorb easily it can help to address childhood obesity."
Explained
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile
On Women's Day
Dr Nawal Al-Hosany: Why more women should be on the frontlines of climate action
Samar Elmnhrawy: How companies in the Middle East can catch up on gender equality
The National Editorial: Is there much to celebrate on International Women's Day 2021?
Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
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Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent